Collaborative Research: PREEVENTS Track 2: Thresholds and envelopes of rapid ice-sheet retreat and sea-level rise: reducing uncertainty in coastal flood hazards

合作研究：预防事件轨道 2：冰盖快速消退和海平面上升的阈值和范围：减少沿海洪水灾害的不确定性

• 批准号: 1663807
• 负责人: Robert Kopp
• 金额: $ 69.98万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-08-01 至 2022-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1663807&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; PREEVENTS; Track; Thresholds

Emerging science based on observations and numerical modeling of the polar ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica suggests that current projections of future sea-level rise could be significantly underestimated. Physically plausible mechanisms have been identified that could produce a rise in global mean sea level of 2 meters ( 6 feet) or more by 2100. This amount is roughly twice the "likely" sea-level rise assessed by the most recent (2013) report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Sea-level rise of this magnitude would soon transform the potential for extreme flood risk in many coastal cities and communities, with the potential for devastating economic consequences and severe impacts on strategic infrastructure. While progress has recently been made in modeling the future response of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean, substantial uncertainty remains and more work is needed to verify the potential for such extreme rates of sea-level rise. This project will use state-of-the-art glaciological theory, modeling, and observations of past and present ice sheet behavior to better characterize this uncertainty stemming from complex ice-sheet physics and interactions among the ice sheets, ocean, atmosphere, and the underlying solid Earth. It will produce new projections of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets' response to a range of plausible future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Advanced statistical techniques will be used to combine the new ice-sheet projections with other factors contributing to global and local sea-level change and associated coastal flooding, in order to produce both sea-level projections and time-evolving water-level probabilities along inhabited coastlines around the globe. The project will provide national and local policy makers and stakeholders with: 1) an assessment of possible levels of future sea-level rise, 2) the frequency (probability in any given year) of specific flood heights being exceeded, 3) an assessment of how those frequencies and storm-surge heights might evolve in the future, and 4) quantified measures of the uncertainty in the projections. The results will be disseminated widely through the development of easily interpretable and universally accessible web-based tools, in close cooperation with Climate Central, an established organization linking climate science and public communication. The goal is to provide the best possible toolkit for informed decision making in terms of coastal resilience and preparedness.Predicting the future of the polar ice sheets remains one of the grand interdisciplinary challenges in geoscientific modeling. Previously underappreciated glaciological processes (hydrofracturing of ice shelves and ice-cliff collapse) have recently been incorporated into ice-sheet models, but further work is needed to quantify and calibrate these mechanisms, establish ranges of structural and parametric uncertainty, and identify climatic thresholds capable of triggering drastic and possibly irreversible ice-sheet retreat, particularly in the marine-based sectors of Greenland and Antarctica. Technical aspects of this project include extending a numerical ice sheet-shelf model with new processes (water enhanced crevassing, firn influence on supraglacial and englacial hydrology and hydrofracturing, ice-cliff collapse, mélange influence), more direct linkages among ice, ocean, and atmospheric model components, and two-way coupling with solid Earth-gravitational-sea-level models. Large-ensemble methods will be used to identify climatically driven instability thresholds and envelopes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and the ensembles will be statistically integrated with other global and local relative sea-level contributors including both non-climatic processes (glacio-isostatic adjustment, gravitational/rotational effects, subsidence/compaction, tectonics, land water storage) and climatic processes (mountain glacier loss, ocean thermal expansion, ocean dynamics, land water storage) to "downscale" the polar ice sheet results to the global network of existing tide gauge locations. Blending extreme value statistics of individual tide gauge time series with our new local relative sea level projections will provide a probabilistic assessment of time-evolving changes in storm-flood frequencies and return periods along global coastlines.

基于对格陵兰岛和南极洲极地冰盖的观测和数值模拟的新兴科学表明，目前对未来海平面上升的预测可能被大大低估，已经确定了可能导致全球平均海平面上升 2 的物理合理机制。米（6英尺）或更多。这个数字大约是政府间气候变化专门委员会最近（2013年）报告评估的海平面“可能”上升幅度的两倍。很快，许多沿海城市和社区面临极端洪水风险的可能性就会改变，可能会造成毁灭性的经济后果，并对战略基础设施造成严重影响，而最近在模拟极地冰盖对气候变暖的未来反应方面取得了进展。和海洋，仍然存在很大的不确定性，需要做更多的工作来验证海平面如此极端的上升速度的可能性，该项目将使用最先进的冰川学理论、建模以及对过去和现在冰盖行为的观察。更好地描述复杂冰盖物理和相互作用带来的不确定性它将对格陵兰岛和南极冰盖对一系列可能的未来温室气体排放情景的反应进行新的预测，并将先进的统计技术结合起来。冰盖预测以及导致全球和当地海平面变化以及相关沿海洪水的其他因素，以便产生全球有人居住的海岸线的海平面预测和随时间变化的水位概率。该项目将为国家提供信息。以及当地政策制定者和利益相关者其中：1) 对未来海平面上升可能水平的评估，2) 超过特定洪水高度的频率（任何给定年份的概率），3) 对这些频率和风暴潮高度在未来可能如何演变的评估4) 预测中不确定性的量化衡量结果将通过与气候中心（一个将气候科学与气候联系起来的知名组织）密切合作，通过开发易于解释和普遍访问的网络工具来广泛传播。目标是为沿海恢复力和准备方面的明智决策提供最佳工具包。预测极地冰盖的未来仍然是地球科学建模中的重大跨学科挑战之一（以前未被充分重视的冰川过程）。冰架和冰崖崩塌）最近已被纳入冰盖模型，但需要进一步的工作来量化和校准这些机制，建立结构和参数不确定性的范围，并确定气候能够引发剧烈且可能不可逆转的冰盖退缩的阈值，特别是在格陵兰岛和南极洲的海洋部分，该项目的技术方面包括使用新过程（水增强的裂隙，对冰盖的影响）扩展数值冰盖模型。冰上和冰内水文学和水力压裂、冰崖崩塌、混杂影响）、冰、海洋和大气模型组件之间更直接的联系，以及与固体的双向耦合地球重力海平面模型将用于确定格陵兰岛和南极冰盖中气候驱动的不稳定阈值和包络线，并且该集合将与其他全球和当地相对海平面贡献者精心整合。非气候过程（冰川均衡调整、重力/旋转效应、沉降/压实、构造、陆地蓄水）和气候过程（山地冰川）损失、海洋热膨胀、海洋动力学、陆地水储存）将极地冰盖结果“缩小”到现有潮汐计位置的全球网络，将各个潮汐计时间序列的极值统计数据与我们新的当地相对海平面预测相结合。将对全球海岸线风暴洪水频率和重现期随时间变化的概率评估。

项目成果

Mapping Sea-Level Change in Time, Space, and Probability

• DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025826
• 发表时间: 2018-01-01
• 期刊: ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES, VOL 43
• 作者: Horton, Benjamin P.;Kopp, Robert E.;Shaw, Timothy A.
• 通讯作者: Shaw, Timothy A.

Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding

• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180366
• 发表时间: 2021-04-01
• 期刊: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• 影响因子: 6
• 作者: Desmet, Klaus;Kopp, Robert E.;Strauss, Benjamin H.
• 通讯作者: Strauss, Benjamin H.

Unprecedented threats to cities from multi-century sea level rise

多个世纪以来海平面上升对城市造成前所未有的威胁

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2e6b
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Strauss, Benjamin H.;Kulp, Scott A.;Rasmussen, D. J.;Levermann, Anders
• 通讯作者: Levermann, Anders

Probabilistic Sea Level Projections at the Coast by 2100

• DOI: 10.1007/s10712-019-09550-y
• 发表时间: 2019-11-01
• 期刊: SURVEYS IN GEOPHYSICS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Jevrejeva, S.;Frederikse, T.;van de Wal, R. S. W.
• 通讯作者: van de Wal, R. S. W.

Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate

• DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002326
• 发表时间: 2021-12-01
• 期刊: EARTHS FUTURE
• 影响因子: 8.2
• 作者: Garner, Andra J.;Kopp, Robert E.;Horton, Benjamin P.
• 通讯作者: Horton, Benjamin P.