Collaborative Research: PREEVENTS Track 2: Thresholds and envelopes of rapid ice-sheet retreat and sea-level rise: reducing uncertainty in coastal flood hazards

合作研究：预防事件轨道 2：冰盖快速消退和海平面上升的阈值和范围：减少沿海洪水灾害的不确定性

• 批准号: 1663807
• 负责人: Robert Kopp
• 金额: $ 69.98万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-08-01 至 2022-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1663807&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; PREEVENTS; Track; Thresholds

Emerging science based on observations and numerical modeling of the polar ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica suggests that current projections of future sea-level rise could be significantly underestimated. Physically plausible mechanisms have been identified that could produce a rise in global mean sea level of 2 meters ( 6 feet) or more by 2100. This amount is roughly twice the "likely" sea-level rise assessed by the most recent (2013) report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Sea-level rise of this magnitude would soon transform the potential for extreme flood risk in many coastal cities and communities, with the potential for devastating economic consequences and severe impacts on strategic infrastructure. While progress has recently been made in modeling the future response of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean, substantial uncertainty remains and more work is needed to verify the potential for such extreme rates of sea-level rise. This project will use state-of-the-art glaciological theory, modeling, and observations of past and present ice sheet behavior to better characterize this uncertainty stemming from complex ice-sheet physics and interactions among the ice sheets, ocean, atmosphere, and the underlying solid Earth. It will produce new projections of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets' response to a range of plausible future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Advanced statistical techniques will be used to combine the new ice-sheet projections with other factors contributing to global and local sea-level change and associated coastal flooding, in order to produce both sea-level projections and time-evolving water-level probabilities along inhabited coastlines around the globe. The project will provide national and local policy makers and stakeholders with: 1) an assessment of possible levels of future sea-level rise, 2) the frequency (probability in any given year) of specific flood heights being exceeded, 3) an assessment of how those frequencies and storm-surge heights might evolve in the future, and 4) quantified measures of the uncertainty in the projections. The results will be disseminated widely through the development of easily interpretable and universally accessible web-based tools, in close cooperation with Climate Central, an established organization linking climate science and public communication. The goal is to provide the best possible toolkit for informed decision making in terms of coastal resilience and preparedness.Predicting the future of the polar ice sheets remains one of the grand interdisciplinary challenges in geoscientific modeling. Previously underappreciated glaciological processes (hydrofracturing of ice shelves and ice-cliff collapse) have recently been incorporated into ice-sheet models, but further work is needed to quantify and calibrate these mechanisms, establish ranges of structural and parametric uncertainty, and identify climatic thresholds capable of triggering drastic and possibly irreversible ice-sheet retreat, particularly in the marine-based sectors of Greenland and Antarctica. Technical aspects of this project include extending a numerical ice sheet-shelf model with new processes (water enhanced crevassing, firn influence on supraglacial and englacial hydrology and hydrofracturing, ice-cliff collapse, mélange influence), more direct linkages among ice, ocean, and atmospheric model components, and two-way coupling with solid Earth-gravitational-sea-level models. Large-ensemble methods will be used to identify climatically driven instability thresholds and envelopes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and the ensembles will be statistically integrated with other global and local relative sea-level contributors including both non-climatic processes (glacio-isostatic adjustment, gravitational/rotational effects, subsidence/compaction, tectonics, land water storage) and climatic processes (mountain glacier loss, ocean thermal expansion, ocean dynamics, land water storage) to "downscale" the polar ice sheet results to the global network of existing tide gauge locations. Blending extreme value statistics of individual tide gauge time series with our new local relative sea level projections will provide a probabilistic assessment of time-evolving changes in storm-flood frequencies and return periods along global coastlines.

基于观察结果和对格陵兰和南极洲极地冰盖的数值建模的新兴科学表明，当前未来海平面上升的项目可能会被大大低估。已经确定了在物理上合理的机制，该机制可能会在2100年到2100年的全球平均海平面上升2米（6英尺）。这一数量大约是最新的（2013年）（2013年）对气候变化跨政府间小组的“可能”海平面上升的两倍。如此规模的海平面上升将很快改变许多沿海城市和社区的极端洪水风险的潜力，并可能造成经济后果和对战略基础设施的严重影响。尽管最近在建模极性冰盖对温暖气氛和海洋的未来反应方面取得了进展，但仍需要大量的不确定性和更多的工作来验证这种极端海平面上升速度的潜力。该项目将使用对过去和现在的冰盖行为的最先进的冰川理论，建模以及观察结果，以更好地表征这种不确定性，这是由于复杂的冰层物理学以及冰盖，海洋，大气层和基础固体地球之间的相互作用所引起的。它将生成格陵兰岛和南极冰盖对一系列合理的未来温室气体排放方案的回应。先进的统计技术将用于将新的冰片项目与其他因素结合起来，这些因素有助于全球和当地的海平面变化以及相关的沿海洪水，以便生产全球的海平面项目和随着时间不断发展的水平可能性。该项目将为国家和地方政策制定者和利益相关者提供：1）评估未来海平面上升水平的可能水平，2）超过特定洪水高度的频率（概率）超过了特定的洪水高度，3）评估这些频率和暴风雨水平的高度在未来可能会如何发展，以及4）量化投影量的不确定度量。通过与Climate Central密切合作，将易于解释和普遍访问的基于Web的工具开发易于解释且可普遍使用的工具，这是一个与气候科学和公共交流联系起来的组织。目的是为沿海的韧性和准备就绪提供最佳的工具包，以提供明智的决策。预测极地冰盖的未来仍然是地球科学建模中巨大的跨学科挑战之一。 Previously underappreciated glaciological processes (hydrofracturing of ice shelves and ice-cliff collapse) have recently been incorporated into ice-sheet models, but further work is needed to quantify and calibrate these mechanisms, establish ranges of structural and parametric uncertainty, and identify crymatic thresholds capable of triggering drastic and possible irreversible ice-sheet retreat, particularly in the marine-based sectors of Greenland and南极洲。该项目的技术方面包括扩展具有新工艺的数字冰板模型（水增强了裂缝，对裂纹的影响，对冰川冰片和缝隙水文和水力压裂的影响，冰裂倒塌，混乱影响），冰，海洋，海洋和大气模型组件，两向界面模型之间更直接的联系，更直接的联系。 Large-ensemble methods will be used to identify crystally driven instability thresholds and envelopes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and the ensembles will be statistically integrated with other global and local relative sea-level contributors including both non-climatic processes (glacio-isostatic adjustment, gravitational/rotational effects, subsidence/compaction, tectonics, land water storage) and crymatic processes (mountain glacier loss,海洋热膨胀，海洋动力学，陆上储存），以“降尺度”为“极地冰盖”导致现有潮汐量规位置的全球网络。将单个潮汐时间序列序列的极端价值统计与我们新的本地相对海平面预测相结合，将对全球海岸线沿全球海岸线的暴风雨频率和返回期的随时间变化的变化提供概率评估。

项目成果

Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding

• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180366
• 发表时间: 2021-04-01
• 期刊: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• 影响因子: 6
• 作者: Desmet, Klaus;Kopp, Robert E.;Strauss, Benjamin H.
• 通讯作者: Strauss, Benjamin H.

Mapping Sea-Level Change in Time, Space, and Probability

• DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025826
• 发表时间: 2018-01-01
• 期刊: ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES, VOL 43
• 作者: Horton, Benjamin P.;Kopp, Robert E.;Shaw, Timothy A.
• 通讯作者: Shaw, Timothy A.

Unprecedented threats to cities from multi-century sea level rise

多个世纪以来海平面上升对城市造成前所未有的威胁

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2e6b
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Strauss, Benjamin H.;Kulp, Scott A.;Rasmussen, D. J.;Levermann, Anders
• 通讯作者: Levermann, Anders

Probabilistic Sea Level Projections at the Coast by 2100

• DOI: 10.1007/s10712-019-09550-y
• 发表时间: 2019-11-01
• 期刊: SURVEYS IN GEOPHYSICS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Jevrejeva, S.;Frederikse, T.;van de Wal, R. S. W.
• 通讯作者: van de Wal, R. S. W.

Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate

• DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002326
• 发表时间: 2021-12-01
• 期刊: EARTHS FUTURE
• 影响因子: 8.2
• 作者: Garner, Andra J.;Kopp, Robert E.;Horton, Benjamin P.
• 通讯作者: Horton, Benjamin P.