Collaborative Research: How Robust Are Common-Era Sea-Level Reconstructions?

合作研究：共纪海平面重建有多稳健？

• 批准号: 2002437
• 负责人: Robert Kopp
• 金额: $ 35.78万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-06-01 至 2023-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2002437&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; How; Robust; Common

Sea-level rise is one of the most challenging aspects of climate change. In order to be confident in predictions of future sea level estimates, it is important to clearly understand how and why sea level changed naturally in the past. This project will collect field data and perform computer modeling to improve our understanding of the main factors that control average sea level during the Common Era (past ~2,000 years). For example, changes in wind and ocean currents, water temperature, and the rebound of land surfaces caused by removing the weight of ice or sediments all contribute to changes in the record of sea level at any location. This project will examine the origin and nature of uncertainties that enter into sea level reconstructions based on errors in estimating each of these factors in the past. The project will not only help scientists improve our understanding of the causes of sea level changes, but it also will help coastal planners by providing better models for projecting sea-level changes into the future. The project will also support three young scientists, deepening their field, laboratory, and modeling skills.Understanding sea level during the Common Era is central to establishing the uniqueness of modern sea-level rise related to anthropogenic climate change, identifying links between sea level and natural climate variability, and training semi-empirical models of future sea-level rise. Past studies estimate global-mean sea level during the Common Era using proxy records. These estimates differ substantially in terms of global-mean sea-level variability during pre-industrial times. It remains to establish how sensitive these estimates are to various uncertainties, assumptions, and choices involved in producing global-mean sea-level time series from the raw data. A detailed study of the robustness and reproducibility of Common-Era sea-level reconstructions based on field, laboratory, and modeling analyses is proposed. Objectives include: (1) determine the reproducibility of high-resolution salt-marsh sea-level reconstructions; and (2) quantify the robustness of model estimates of Common-Era global-mean sea level. Outcomes will fill basic knowledge gaps, advancing understanding of the Common Era, and leading to better characterization of trends, patterns, and causes of pre- and post-industrial sea-level change. By documenting past spatiotemporal variability of sea level, evaluating associated rates of change during the Common Era, and identifying links to ocean circulation and climate, the project will contribute to achieving the goals and scientific objectives of the Paleo Perspectives on Climate Change (P2C2) program. Efforts will make progress towards the broader goals of sea-level research related to the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change, the response of the solid Earth to redistribution of ice mass, and the assimilation of proxy records and instrumental observations within a coherent probabilistic framework.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

海平面上升是气候变化最具挑战性的方面之一。 为了对未来海平面估计的预测充满信心，重要的是要清楚地了解过去海平面自然变化的方式和原因。该项目将收集现场数据并进行计算机建模，以提高我们对公元元（过去约 2,000 年）期间控制平均海平面的主要因素的理解。例如，风和洋流、水温的变化以及由于冰或沉积物的重量去除而引起的陆地表面的反弹都会导致任何地点海平面记录的变化。 该项目将根据过去估计每个因素的错误，研究进入海平面重建的不确定性的起源和性质。该项目不仅将帮助科学家提高对海平面变化原因的了解，还将通过提供更好的模型来预测未来海平面变化来帮助沿海规划者。该项目还将支持三名年轻科学家，加深他们的领域、实验室和建模技能。了解公元元时期的海平面对于确定与人为气候变化相关的现代海平面上升的独特性、确定海平面与气候变化之间的联系至关重要。自然气候变化，以及训练未来海平面上升的半经验模型。过去的研究使用代理记录估计了公元元时期的全球平均海平面。这些估计在前工业化时期的全球平均海平面变化方面存在很大差异。仍有待确定这些估计对根据原始数据生成全球平均海平面时间序列所涉及的各种不确定性、假设和选择有多敏感。提出了基于现场、实验室和建模分析的共纪海平面重建的鲁棒性和可重复性的详细研究。目标包括：（1）确定高分辨率盐沼海平面重建的可重复性； (2) 量化公元纪年全球平均海平面模型估计的稳健性。成果将填补基础知识空白，增进对共同时代的理解，并更好地描述工业化前后海平面变化的趋势、模式和原因。通过记录过去海平面的时空变化，评估公元元期间的相关变化率，并确定海洋环流和气候的联系，该项目将有助于实现古气候变化视角（P2C2）计划的目标和科学目标。努力将在实现更广泛的海平面研究目标方面取得进展，这些目标涉及冰盖对气候变化的敏感性、固体地球对冰块重新分布的响应以及在连贯的概率框架内同化代理记录和仪器观测该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise

• DOI: 10.1126/science.abo7872
• 发表时间: 2022-07
• 期刊: Science
• 影响因子: 56.9
• 作者: N. Saintilan;K. Kovalenko;G. Guntenspergen;Kerrylee Rogers;J. Lynch;D. Cahoon;C. Lovelock;D. Friess;Erica L. Ashe;K. Krauss;N. Cormier;T. Spencer;J. Adams;J. Raw;C. Ibáñez;F. Scarton;S. Temmerman;P. Meire;T. Maris;K. Thorne;John Brazner;G. Chmura;Tony M. Bowron;V. P. Gamage;Kimberly A. Cressman;C. Endris;Cristina Marconi;P. Marcum;Kari A. St. Laurent;William Reay;K. Raposa;Jason A. Garwood;N. Khan

The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica

• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0
• 发表时间: 2021-05-06
• 期刊: NATURE
• 影响因子: 64.8
• 作者: DeConto, Robert M.;Pollard, David;Dutton, Andrea
• 通讯作者: Dutton, Andrea

A statistical framework for integrating nonparametric proxy distributions into geological reconstructions of relative sea level

将非参数代理分布整合到相对海平面地质重建中的统计框架

• DOI: 10.5194/ascmo-8-1-2022
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Meteorology and Oceanography
• 作者: Ashe, Erica L.;Khan, Nicole S.;Toth, Lauren T.;Dutton, Andrea;Kopp, Robert E.
• 通讯作者: Kopp, Robert E.

Postglacial relative sea level change in Norway

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107422
• 发表时间: 2022-03-15
• 期刊: QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: Creel, Roger C.;Austermann, Jacqueline;Menke, William
• 通讯作者: Menke, William