PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Predicting Hurricane Risk along the United States East Coast in a Changing Climate

预防事件轨道 2：合作研究：预测气候变化中美国东海岸的飓风风险

基本信息

批准号：
1854956
负责人：
Kristopher Karnauskas
金额：
$ 21.6万
依托单位：
University of Colorado at Boulder
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2019-06-01 至 2025-05-31
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1854956&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
PREEVENTS Track Collaborative Research Predicting

项目摘要

Changes to hurricane activity in the coming century has the potential to catastrophically impact the entire economic landscape of American coastal region. Unfortunately, significant uncertainty in projections of future hurricane risk exist because the climatic drivers of changes in hurricane activity is poorly known. This is exacerbated by the exceedingly short instrumental record of hurricane occurrence in the western Atlantic, which makes diagnosing the climatic controls on hurricane activity difficult. This project utilizes historical and long-term geological reconstructions of hurricane activity in the western North Atlantic, which extends our knowledge of hurricane occurrence back centuries and even millennia. This approach allows assessment of how the risk posed by hurricanes along the east coast of the United States has changed. Further, the researchers will use state of the art numerical models to both diagnose the key climatic conditions that contribute to changes in hurricane activity and to provide improved projections of future hurricane risk. Many of the lessons learned from this work will be used by the broader scientific community and planners and decision-makers to improve our preparedness and resilience to possible future changes in hurricane risk. The results will inform risk modeling, which in turn informs the insurance and re-insurance industries, as well as efforts to mitigate tropical cyclone hazards at the city, state and federal levels. Finally, the project will provide the opportunity to train and educate the next generation of scientists with the engagement of graduate, undergraduate and high school students.This study takes an integrated research approach that addresses two broad questions: 1) How is the risk of floods changing due to (a) storm surge and (b) rainfall? 2) How do processes like changes in ocean circulations (e.g., Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) and the response to low latitude volcanic eruptions modulate hurricane activity, both generally and specifically for US landfalling storms? Reconstruction of past changes in hurricane landfalls along the Northeast US, Florida east coast, and northwestern Gulf of Mexico will be coupled with hydrodynamic modeling of tropical cyclone related storm surges and waves and downscaled estimates of TC-related rainfall. This approach will allow determination of changes in risk of TC-induced flooding over the last millennium. This will form the baseline for examining future risk and for examining critical forcing mechanisms that may significantly alter future regional landfall probabilities. Downscaling the latest (CMIP6) global model output coupled with hydrodynamic modeling of surge and waves will be used to assess current and future risk of TC-induced flooding. In addition, we will explore the potential influence of volcanic aerosols that penetrate the stratosphere on TC activity. Further, this study plans to examine the influence of changes in ocean circulation on TCs, which affects the probability of intense hurricane landfalls by altering the amount of ocean heat content available to TCs close to landfall.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在未来世纪，飓风活动的变化有可能对美国沿海地区的整个经济格局产生灾难性影响。不幸的是，由于飓风活动变化的气候驱动因素是鲜为人知的，因此存在未来飓风风险的预测不确定性。西大西洋的飓风发生的极短的工具记录使情况加剧了这一点，这使得诊断对飓风活动的气候控制变得困难。该项目利用北大西洋西部飓风活动的历史和长期地质重建，这扩展了我们对飓风发生的知识，几个世纪甚至几千年。这种方法允许评估美国东海岸飓风的风险如何发生变化。此外，研究人员将使用最先进的数值模型来诊断有助于飓风活动变化的关键气候状况，并提供改进未来飓风风险的预测。从这项工作中汲取的许多教训将由更广泛的科学界，计划者和决策者使用，以提高我们对飓风风险未来可能改变的恢复能力。结果将为风险建模提供信息，从而为保险和再保险行业提供了依据，以及减轻城市，州和联邦一级的热带气旋危害的努力。最后，该项目将提供机会，以培训和教育下一代科学家，通过研究生，本科和高中生的参与。这项研究采用了一种综合研究方法，解决了两个广泛的问题：1）洪水风险如何由于（a）风暴潮和（b）降雨而改变？ 2）诸如海洋环流变化（例如大西洋子午翻转循环）和对低纬度火山喷发的反应如何调节飓风活动，通常，特别是针对美国登陆风暴的反应？在美国东北部，佛罗里达东海岸和墨西哥西北海湾沿线飓风登陆的过去变化将与热带气旋相关的风暴潮和波浪以及TC相关降雨估计的估计值的水动力学建模。这种方法将允许确定上千年中TC引起的洪水风险的变化。这将构成检查未来风险和检查可能会大大改变未来地区登陆概率的关键强迫机制的基准。降低最新的（CMIP6）全球模型输出，再加上电涌和波的流体动力建模，将用于评估TC诱导的洪水的当前和未来风险。此外，我们将探讨穿透平流层对TC活性的火山气溶胶的潜在影响。此外，本研究计划检查海洋循环对TC的变化的影响，这通过改变接近登陆的TC可用的海洋热量量来影响强烈的飓风登陆的可能性。这项奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被视为。值得通过基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准来通过评估来支持。