Collaborative Research: P2C2 - Reconstructing rates and sources of sea-level change over the last ~150 thousand years from a new coral database

合作研究：P2C2 - 从新的珊瑚数据库重建过去约 15 万年海平面变化的速率和来源

• 批准号: 1702587
• 负责人: Robert Kopp
• 金额: $ 32.86万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-06-15 至 2020-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1702587&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Reconstructing; rates

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: RECONSTRUCTING RATES AND SOURCES OF SEA LEVEL CHANGE OVER THE LAST ~150 THOUSAND YEARS FROM A NEW CORAL DATABASE Future sea level rise, driven by shrinking land ice and ocean warming, threatens coastal populations, economic activity, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the world. Data on past sea level positions are critical for understanding how sensitive sea level and ice sheets are to temperature change. Paleo-sea level records come from several different sources. For time periods older than about 4000 years, some of the records with the best vertical resolution and most precise ages come from coral reefs, which grow at distinctive elevation ranges with respect to mean sea level.During the Last Interglacial stage, about 125,000 years ago, global average sea-surface temperature peaked around its current level, while analyses of corals and other proxies indicate global mean sea level peaked about 6-9 m higher than today. This magnitude of sea level rise - implying considerably smaller ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica - hints at the long-term commitment current warming has imparted to future sea level rise. The researchers in this project will use the coral sea level database to better understand rates of sea level and ice-sheet change over time, and how these rates relate to changes in the global climate. The knowledge gained will contribute to work by this team and others in the research community on future sea level projections. The project will provide a graduate student and a postdoctoral researcher with interdisciplinary training in oceanography, geology, geophysics and statistics. It will also synthesize a global reconstruction of sea-level over the last 150,000 years, and associated numerical methods for producing this reconstruction, that can be broadly used by the research community. This project focuses on four basic questions: (1) How much did global mean sea level vary over time, and how do local, relative sea levels vary in space, over this time period? (2) How fast did global mean sea level change during the last 150,000 years, and what was the relationship between changes in sea level and changes in temperature? (3) Can the spatial patterns of sea level change be used to separate the contributions of different ice sheets to global mean sea level change? (4) How does global mean sea level reconstructed using corals compare to other continuous records of sea level and climate change? To address these questions, the researchers will: (1) develop emulators of geophysical models of glacio-isostatic adjustment and mantle dynamic topography in order to estimate the contribution of different ice sheets to sea level change, (2) refine the history of seawater uranium isotope compositions that are important to interpreting accurate ages from U-Th-dated corals, and (3) incorporate ecological data about the relationship between coral growth position and sea level into a spatio-temporal statistical framework that links together the coral database and the geophysical models. The application of these techniques to the coral database for the last 150,000 years will provide a uniquely high-precision, continuous record of global mean sea level variability over this time period. This reconstruction will enable a more precise estimate of the magnitude of global mean sea level variability and rates of global mean sea level change, and should allow discrimination between global mean sea level contributions from North American and Arctic sources and those from Antarctic sources. These reconstructions will provide data with which to test the ice sheet models used to project future changes in addition to supporting the career development of a postdoctoral scholar and the training of a Ph.D. student.

协作研究：在过去的1.5万年中，重建率和海平面的来源发生了变化，这是由于新的珊瑚数据库未来的海平面上升，这是由于陆上冰和海洋变暖的缩小，威胁沿海人口，经济活动，基础设施和生态系统，并驱动着海平面。世界。过去的海平面位置的数据对于了解敏感的海平面和冰盖如何变化至关重要。古海级记录来自几个不同的来源。在大约4000岁的时间内，有些具有最佳垂直分辨率和最精确年龄的记录来自珊瑚礁，珊瑚礁在平均海平面上在独特的海拔范围内生长。 ，全球平均海面温度在其当前水平上达到峰值，而对珊瑚和其他代理的分析表明，全球平均海平面比今天高约6-9 m。海平面上升的这种幅度 - 这意味着在格陵兰和南极西部的冰盖较小 - 暗示了长期承诺当前的变暖已赋予未来的海平面上升。该项目中的研究人员将使用珊瑚海水平数据库更好地了解海平面和冰盖随时间变化的速度，以及这些速度与全球气候变化的关系。获得的知识将有助于该团队和研究界的其他人对未来海平面预测的工作。该项目将为研究生和博士后研究人员提供海洋学，地质，地球物理学和统计的跨学科培训。它还将在过去15万年中综合全球海平面的重建，并将其相关的数值方法用于生产这种重建，这可以由研究界广泛使用。该项目重点介绍了四个基本问题：（1）全球平均水平随着时间的流逝而变化了多少，当地的相对海平面在这个时期如何变化？ （2）在过去的150，000年中，全球海平面的变化速度有多快，海平面变化与温度变化之间的关系是什么？ （3）是否可以使用海平面变化的空间模式将不同的冰盖对全球平均海平面变化的贡献分开？ （4）与其他连续的海平面和气候变化记录相比，使用珊瑚重建的全球平均海平面是如何重建的？为了解决这些问题，研究人员将：（1）开发冰川化模型的冰川化模型和地幔动态地形的模拟器，以估算不同的冰盖对海平面变化的贡献，（2）完善海水铀的历史对于从U-the-thed Corals解释准确年龄至关重要的同位素组成，（3）将有关珊瑚生长位置和海平面之间关系的生态数据纳入了将珊瑚数据库和地球物理学联系在一起的时空统计框架型号。在过去的150，000年中，这些技术在珊瑚数据库中的应用将提供这段时间内全球平均海平面变异性的独特高精度，连续的记录。这种重建将使对全球平均海平面变异性和全球平均海平面变化的幅度进行更精确的估计，并应允许在北美和北极来源以及南极来源的全球平均海平面贡献之间进行歧视。这些重建将提供数据，除了支持博士后学者的职业发展外，还可以通过这些数据来测试用于投射未来变化的冰盖模型和博士学位的培训。学生。

项目成果

Postglacial relative sea-level histories along the eastern Canadian coastline

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.09.043
• 发表时间: 2018-12
• 期刊: Quaternary Science Reviews
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: M. Vacchi;S. Engelhart;D. Nikitina;Erica L. Ashe;W. Peltier;K. Roy;Robert E Kopp;B. Horton

Influence of Mantle Dynamic Topographical Variations on US Mid‐Atlantic Continental Margin Estimates of Sea‐Level Change

地幔动态地形变化对美国大西洋中部大陆边缘海平面变化估计的影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090521
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Schmelz, William J.;Miller, Kenneth G.;Kopp, Robert E.;Mountain, Gregory S.;Browning, James V.
• 通讯作者: Browning, James V.

Mapping Sea-Level Change in Time, Space, and Probability

• DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025826
• 发表时间: 2018-01-01
• 期刊: ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES, VOL 43
• 作者: Horton, Benjamin P.;Kopp, Robert E.;Shaw, Timothy A.
• 通讯作者: Shaw, Timothy A.

The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica

• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0
• 发表时间: 2021-05-06
• 期刊: NATURE
• 影响因子: 64.8
• 作者: DeConto, Robert M.;Pollard, David;Dutton, Andrea
• 通讯作者: Dutton, Andrea

Statistical modeling of rates and trends in Holocene relative sea level

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.10.032
• 发表时间: 2019-01-15
• 期刊: QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: Ashe, Erica L.;Cahill, Niamh;Kopp, Robert E.
• 通讯作者: Kopp, Robert E.