Collaborative Research: P2C2 -- Statistical estimation of past ice sheet volumes from paleo-sea level records

合作研究：P2C2——根据古海平面记录对过去冰盖体积的统计估计

• 批准号: 1203415
• 负责人: Robert Kopp
• 金额: $ 46.61万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-07-15 至 2016-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1203415&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Statistical; estimation

The PIs propose to develop a statistical model for inferring past mean global sea level (GSL) and ice sheet volumes from geological indicators of changes in local sea levels. This model will employ a Bayesian statistical framework to combine geological observations and their uncertainties with a geophysical model of the spatial and temporal sea level patterns associated with different meltwater sources. The proposed work focuses on three specific applications: (1) evaluating the contribution of different ice sheets to high GSL during the Last Interglacial stage, ~130-115 thousand years ago; (2) assessing ice sheet history from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present, in particular estimating the net ice volume change across this time interval and assessing the relative contributions of the Laurentide and Antarctic ice sheets to meltwater pulse 1a at ~14.3 thousand years ago; and (3) over a broader sweep of the Quaternary and Pliocene, investigating the relationship between Northern and Southern hemisphere ice volumes and paleoclimate proxies.The geological record of past ice sheet responses to climate change can serve as a key data source for testing forward physical models of ice sheet dynamics under different climate scenarios. The model developed in this project will be an effort to synthesize such a data set, evaluate its associated uncertainties, and employ it to strengthen understanding of the relationship between key climate parameters (such as polar and circum-polar temperatures) and ice sheet stability.

PI建议开发一个统计模型，用于根据当地海平面变化的地质指标推断过去的平均全球海平面（GSL）和冰盖体积。该模型将采用贝叶斯统计框架，将地质观测及其不确定性与与不同融水源相关的时空海平面模式的地球物理模型结合起来。拟议的工作重点关注三个具体应用：（1）评估约130-115000年前末次间冰期阶段不同冰盖对高GSL的贡献； (2) 评估从末次盛冰期 (LGM) 至今的冰盖历史，特别是估计该时间间隔内的净冰量变化，并评估劳伦泰德和南极冰盖对 ~14.3 融水脉冲 1a 的相对贡献千年前； （3）在更广泛的第四纪和上新世范围内，调查北半球和南半球冰量与古气候代理之间的关系。过去冰盖对气候变化响应的地质记录可以作为测试未来物理变化的关键数据源。不同气候情景下的冰盖动力学模型。该项目开发的模型将致力于综合这样一个数据集，评估其相关的不确定性，并利用它来加强对关键气候参数（例如极地和环极地温度）与冰盖稳定性之间关系的理解。