Collaborative Research: P2C2 -- Statistical estimation of past ice sheet volumes from paleo-sea level records

合作研究：P2C2——根据古海平面记录对过去冰盖体积的统计估计

• 批准号: 1203415
• 负责人: Robert Kopp
• 金额: $ 46.61万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-07-15 至 2016-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1203415&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Statistical; estimation

The PIs propose to develop a statistical model for inferring past mean global sea level (GSL) and ice sheet volumes from geological indicators of changes in local sea levels. This model will employ a Bayesian statistical framework to combine geological observations and their uncertainties with a geophysical model of the spatial and temporal sea level patterns associated with different meltwater sources. The proposed work focuses on three specific applications: (1) evaluating the contribution of different ice sheets to high GSL during the Last Interglacial stage, ~130-115 thousand years ago; (2) assessing ice sheet history from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present, in particular estimating the net ice volume change across this time interval and assessing the relative contributions of the Laurentide and Antarctic ice sheets to meltwater pulse 1a at ~14.3 thousand years ago; and (3) over a broader sweep of the Quaternary and Pliocene, investigating the relationship between Northern and Southern hemisphere ice volumes and paleoclimate proxies.The geological record of past ice sheet responses to climate change can serve as a key data source for testing forward physical models of ice sheet dynamics under different climate scenarios. The model developed in this project will be an effort to synthesize such a data set, evaluate its associated uncertainties, and employ it to strengthen understanding of the relationship between key climate parameters (such as polar and circum-polar temperatures) and ice sheet stability.

PI提议开发一个统计模型，用于推断过去的平均全球海平面（GSL）和冰盖量，从当地海平面变化的地质指标中提取冰盖。该模型将采用贝叶斯统计框架，将地质观察结果及其不确定性与与不同融合水源相关的空间和颞海平面模式的地球物理模型相结合。拟议的工作重点介绍了三个特定的应用：（1）在最后一个冰川间阶段评估不同冰盖对高GSL的贡献，〜130-115千年前； （2）评估从最后一个冰川最大（LGM）到当前的冰盖历史，特别是估计了此时间间隔的净冰量变化，并评估了劳伦德赛和南极冰盖对融化脉冲1A的相对贡献，即约14.3千年前； （3）在更广泛的第四纪和上新世的扫描中，调查了北半球和南半球冰量和古气候代理之间的关系。过去对气候变化的冰盖响应的地质记录可以作为在不同气候场景下测试冰板动力学的冰期远期物理模型的关键数据来源。该项目中开发的模型将努力综合此类数据集，评估其相关的不确定性，并利用它来增强对关键气候参数（例如极性和圆周温度）和冰板稳定性之间关系的理解。