Collaborative Research: P2C2--Medieval to Modern Climate Variability and Climate Change in the Great Plains

合作研究：P2C2——中世纪到现代的气候变率和大平原的气候变化

基本信息

批准号：
2201243
负责人：
David Stahle
金额：
$ 19.81万
依托单位：
University of Arkansas
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2022-07-01 至 2025-06-30
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2201243&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research P2C2 Medieval Modern

项目摘要

The general goal of the research is to develop moisture sensitive tree-ring chronologies from old-growth populations of Juniperus, Pinus, and Taxodium trees from within or near the Great Plains for in situ reconstructions of seasonal precipitation and the long-term soil moisture balance that together will constitute the Great Plains Drought Atlas (GPDA). Five gridded reconstructions that span the Great Plains at 0.5 degree resolution will be developed, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the spring and summer seasons, precipitation totals for spring and summer, and the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The reconstructions will be designed for maximum length, with the goal of extending the moisture estimates into the Medieval Period when the climate appears to have been much warmer and drier. The GPDA will be used to test hypotheses concerning the magnitude of Great Plains drought and pluvial, the anthropogenic imprint on recent moisture trends in the Great Plains, and the possible multi-decadal regimes in the frequency of rapid-onset spring to summer flash drought over the Great Plains during the past 500- to 1000-years.The highest agricultural production in the United States occurs in the Great Plains, a region also subject to frequent drought, including the flash drought of 2012 that resulted in $30 billion in losses. Proxy tree ring and lake sediment data suggest that the instrumental record of precipitation and soil moisture may not be representative of the natural variability of severe droughts and prolonged wet intervals over the past millennium. Anthropogenic climate change may be contributing to wetter conditions in the Northern Plains and increasing dryness over the Southern Plains, a possible expression of the drying symptomatic of the expansion of the Hadley Cell and the weakening of the jet stream predicted by many climate models. These human-induced changes threaten to disrupt agriculture, energy production, and water use, and may be magnified by recurrent decadal moisture extremes witnessed in instrumental and paleoclimate records. Very few exactly dated, annual tree-ring chronologies are available from the mostly treeless Great Plains. The lack of data adds considerable uncertainty to the available reconstructions of moisture anomalies for this region. This project seeks to reduce the uncertainty by developing long tree-ring chronologies within and along the boundaries of the Great Plains to aid reconstruction of past drought and wetness in this critical agricultural region.The potential Broader Impacts (B.I.) include improvement in understanding climate processes involving drought and extreme events in the Great Plains regions that impact the highest agricultural production in the United States. Importantly, the project includes researchers and students from a regional Primarily Undergraduate Institution (PUI) which has strong ties to affected agricultural and tribal communities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该研究的一般目标是开发从朱尼植物，松木和分类树木的旧增长人群中开发出敏感的树环的年代，从大平原内部或附近，以季节性降水和长期土壤湿度平衡的现场重建，这将构成大平原干旱的土壤湿气（GPDA）（GPDA）。将开发五次以0.5度分辨率的横跨大平原的网格重建，包括春季和夏季的标准降水指数（SPI），春季和夏季的降水总数以及夏季帕尔默干旱严重性指数（PDSI）。重建将以最大长度设计，目的是将水分估计扩展到中世纪的时期，当时气候似乎更温暖和干燥。 GPDA将用于测试有关大平原干旱和pluvial幅度的假设，人为对大平原的水分趋势的人类学性以及在过去500至1000年的典范中，在庞大的plains press and the Great plains of Unterial of Unternitial of Unternity in Cornity of Unternitial of the Intuctorcriral of the Intuctrive intrive of Fornity intor Intorcriral of the Intuct of United of United of United of United of United of the Great plains的频率是众多的频率。干旱，包括2012年的闪光干旱，导致了300亿美元的损失。代理树环和湖泊沉积物数据表明，在过去的千年中，降水和土壤水分的仪器记录可能无法代表严重干旱的自然变异性和延长的湿度间隔。人为的气候变化可能导致北部平原的湿润条件和南部平原上的干燥增加，这是哈德利细胞扩张的干燥症状的表达以及许多气候模型预测的喷射流的削弱。这些人类引起的变化有可能破坏农业，能源生产和用水，并且可能会因仪器和古气候记录中见证的复发性衰老湿度极端。很少有过时的年度树环会从大部分无树环的大平原上获得。缺乏数据为该区域的水分异常重建带来了很大的不确定性。该项目旨在通过在大平原的内部和范围内开发长树环的时间表来减少不确定性，以帮助重建这个关键的农业区域中过去的干旱和潮湿的重建。潜在的更广泛的影响（B.I.）包括了解涉及大平原地区的干旱和极端事件的理解，这些进步在大平原地区影响了最重要的国家，以影响美国国际公司的最大生产。重要的是，该项目包括来自主要是本科机构（PUI）的研究人员和学生，该研究人员与受影响的农业和部落社区有着密切的联系。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的审查标准来评估值得通过评估来支持的。