PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Geomorphic Versus Climatic Drivers of Changing Coastal Flood Risk

预防事件轨道 2：协作研究：变化的沿海洪水风险的地貌与气候驱动因素

• 批准号: 1854946
• 负责人: Stefan Talke
• 金额: $ 32.86万
• 依托单位: Portland State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-06-01 至 2020-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1854946&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: PREEVENTS; Track; Collaborative; Research; Geomorphic; PREEVENTS; Track; Collaborative; Research; Geomorphic

Coastal flooding is one of the most dangerous and damaging natural hazards that societies face, and coastal development and climate change are causing a dramatic rise in vulnerability. Since the 19th century, estuary channels have typically been deepened and widened by a factor of two or three, harbor entrances have been deepened and streamlined, and a large proportion of wetlands have been filled over and replaced with neighborhoods. Such geomorphic changes increase flood risk by reducing natural resistance to storm surge and tides. Similarly, sea level rise and climate-modulated variations in storm characteristics such as intensity, size and track path also alter flood risk. The overarching goal of the proposed research project is to reveal and contrast the mechanisms by which these geomorphic and climatic changes alter flood risk. This goal will be met using a combination of computational modeling, historical climate and storm surge data analysis, and theory-based synthesis. The study will provide support for a postdoctoral research associate and several graduate students and undergraduates, including underrepresented groups. It will improve the well-being of communities within urbanized harbors and estuaries by highlighting coastal development practices that can worsen coastal flooding. The project plan increases scientific literacy and engagement, and connects the research to applications through interactions with local stakeholders and governments, as well as the US Geological Survey and the US Army Corps of Engineers.The project will improve the understanding and separation of climatic and geomorphic factors in coastal flooding through several elements of novel research and technical innovation. The investigators will use a unique tide-gauge data set that extends back to the 19th century together with contemporary, retrospective, and idealized hydrodynamic models to elucidate system sensitivities. Well-known, simplified insights into tidal dynamics will be tested for storm surge, then used to help interpret how altered local topography, bathymetry and wetland area have changed frictional damping and long-wave mechanics. A combined analysis of climate, storm characteristics, and morphologic change will identify the modes and pathways through which climate variability and bathymetric change modulate storms surges. Advanced non-stationary univariate and multivariate statistical models will be developed and employed to incorporate these changes and assess how statistical properties relevant for coastal design and risk assessments respond. A flood model inter-comparison workshop will help quantify relevant modeling sensitivities, which will help to improve estuary and floodplain predictions for the academic and operational forecasting community.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

沿海洪水是社会面临的最危险和最具破坏性的自然危害之一，沿海的发展和气候变化正在引起脆弱性的急剧上升。 自19世纪以来，河口频道通常已经加深并扩大了两到三倍，港口入口已加深和简化，并且很大一部分湿地被填满并用社区代替。 这种地貌变化通过减少对风暴潮和潮汐的自然抵抗来增加洪水风险。 同样，海平面上升和气候调节的风暴特征变化，例如强度，大小和轨道路径也会改变洪水风险。 拟议的研究项目的总体目标是揭示和对比这些地貌和气候变化改变洪水风险的机制。 该目标将通过计算建模，历史气候和风暴激增数据分析以及基于理论的综合的结合来实现。 该研究将为博士后研究助理以及包括代表性不足的群体在内的几名研究生和本科生提供支持。 它将通过强调可能恶化沿海洪水的沿海发展实践来改善城市化港口和河口的福祉。 该项目计划提高了科学素养和参与度，并通过与当地利益相关者和政府的互动以及美国地质调查局和美国陆军工程兵团的互动将研究与应用联系起来。该项目将通过新的研究和技术创新元素来提高沿海洪水中气候和地貌因素的理解和分离。 研究人员将使用独特的潮汐数据集，该数据集可以追溯到19世纪，以及当代，回顾性和理想化的流体动力学模型来阐明系统敏感性。 众所周知的简化洞察力将测试风暴潮的测试，然后用来解释局部地形，测深和湿地区域的改变如何改变了摩擦阻尼和长波力学。 对气候，风暴特征和形态变化的结合分析将确定气候变异性和测深的变化调节风暴潮流的模式和途径。 将开发和使用高级非平稳单变量和多元统计模型来纳入这些变化，并评估与沿海设计​​和风险评估相关的统计属性。 洪水模型间比较的研讨会将有助于量化相关的建模敏感性，这将有助于改善对学术和运营预测社区的河口和洪泛区的预测。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识绩效和广泛影响的评估来通过评估来获得支持的。