Modeling the public health impact of a flavored cigar ban

模拟调味雪茄禁令对公共健康的影响

• 批准号: 10665869
• 负责人: Sarah Mills
• 金额: $ 67.96万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-09-30 至 2028-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10665869
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Affect; Behavior; Black race; Characteristics; Cigar; Cigarette; Cigarette Smoker; Collaborations; Communication; Country; Data; Demographic Impact; Disease; Effectiveness; Electronic cigarette; Ethnic Origin; Face; Health; Health Benefit; Individual; Inequity; Legal; Literature; Low income; Maintenance; Marketing; Markov Chains; Menthol; Modeling; Monitor; North Carolina; Pattern; Persons; Pharyngeal structure; Phase; Policies; Population; Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health; Population Group; Positioning Attribute; Poverty; Prevalence; Probability; Public Health; Race; Reduce health disparities; Regulation; Research; Research Priority; Sales; Science; Smoke; Smoking; Study models; Subgroup; System; Taste Perception; Time; Tobacco; Tobacco use; United States; United States Food and Drug Administration; Universities; Update; Youth; cigarette smoke; cigarillos; combustible tobacco; contextual factors; design; ethnic minority; health disparity; improved; models and simulation; mortality; mortality disparity; polytobacco use; population health; racial minority; systematic review; tobacco control; tobacco flavor; tobacco products; tobacco regulation; tobacco regulatory science; tobacco user; tool

ABSTRACT: PROJECT 3 The objective of this project is to estimate the public health impact of a federal flavored cigar ban on tobacco use, mortality and health disparities in the United States. This project will build a microsimulation model of individuals living in the US who are current, former, or potential users of cigars, cigarettes and e-cigarettes. The model can be used to track tobacco use over time, so the impact of a flavored cigar ban on smoking and mortality in the US population and in priority populations for tobacco control, such as among people who are Black or have lower incomes, can be estimated. The microsimulation model will be built in three phases corresponding to the specific aims. Specifically, using data from the nationally representative, longitudinal Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study, we will estimate tobacco use transition probabilities over time, with a focus on the effects of cigar use on initiation, cessation, and dual/poly use of tobacco products (Aim 1). We will conduct a systematic review to compile data on cigar users’ tobacco use after a flavored cigar ban and elicit potential policy design effects from tobacco experts. Tobacco experts will be asked to develop plausible and distinct flavored cigar ban scenarios to simulate and compare, and quantify how key post-ban contextual factors (e.g., policy enforcement) affect the impact of the ban (Aim 2). Finally, using findings from Aims 1 and 2, and estimates from the literature, we will build a microsimulation model to estimate how tobacco use and mortality changes in the presence of a federal flavored cigar ban and in plausible moderating circumstances, such as with weak tobacco retailer compliance with a ban (Aim 3). This project will provide a comprehensive understanding of the potential public health impact of a flavored cigar ban, critical scientific evidence to counter likely legal challenges against a federal ban. We will also identify key threats to policy effectiveness for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to monitor and address in collaboration with local and state partners to maximize the public health benefits of the policy. This project addresses FDA research priorities to assess the impact of tobacco product characteristics (i.e., flavors) on initiation and cessation (Behavior, Aim 1) and to understand the public health impact of potential FDA regulatory action on tobacco use behavior and health (Impact Analysis, Aims 2 and 3). The University of North Carolina (UNC) Tobacco Centers of Regulatory Science (TCORS) has deep expertise in tobacco regulation and communications. The Center’s Integrative Theme is building the science for effective regulation of and communication about tobacco products disproportionately used by priority populations – flavored tobacco products.

摘要：项目 3 该项目的目标是评估联邦调味雪茄烟草禁令对公共健康的影响 该项目将建立一个关于美国的使用、死亡率和健康差异的微观模拟模型。 居住在美国的当前、以前或潜在的雪茄、香烟和电子烟用户。 该模型可用于跟踪一段时间内的烟草使用情况，因此调味雪茄禁令对吸烟和吸烟的影响 美国人口和烟草控制重点人群的死亡率，例如 黑人或收入较低的人，可以估计微观模拟模型将分三个阶段建立。 具体来说，使用具有全国代表性的纵向数据。 烟草与健康研究的人口评估，我们将估计烟草使用转变概率 时间，重点关注雪茄使用对开始、戒烟和双重/多重使用烟草制品的影响 （目标 1）我们将进行系统审查，以收集雪茄使用者在抽完调味雪茄后的烟草使用情况的数据。 将要求烟草专家制定禁令并激发烟草专家潜在的政策设计效果。 合理且独特风味的雪茄禁令情景，用于模拟和比较，并量化禁令后的关键程度 背景因素（例如政策执行）会影响禁令的影响（目标 2）。 目标 1 和 2，以及根据文献的估计，我们将建立一个微观模拟模型来估计烟草如何 在联邦风味雪茄禁令存在和合理缓和的情况下，使用和死亡率的变化 情况，例如烟草零售商遵守禁令的能力较差（目标 3）。 全面了解调味雪茄禁令对公共健康的潜在影响，关键科学 我们还将确定可能对政策造成的主要威胁。 美国食品和药物管理局 (FDA) 与当地合作监测和解决问题的有效性 该项目致力于 FDA 的研究。 评估烟草产品特性（即口味）对开始和戒烟影响的优先顺序 （行为，目标 1）并了解 FDA 对烟草使用的潜在监管行动对公众健康的影响 行为与健康（影响分析，目标 2 和 3） 北卡罗来纳大学 (UNC) 烟草中心。 监管科学中心 (TCORS) 在烟草监管和传播方面拥有深厚的专业知识。 综合主题正在建立有效监管和传播烟草产品的科学 重点人群不成比例地使用调味烟草产品。