Modeling the public health impact of a national menthol cigarette ban.

模拟全国薄荷卷烟禁令对公共健康的影响。

• 批准号: 10212986
• 负责人: Sarah Mills
• 金额: $ 15.79万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-08-07 至 2024-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10212986
• 关键词: Address; Adolescent; Adult; Advisory Committees; African American; Anesthetics; Asians; Award; Behavior; Cardiovascular Diseases; Cessation of life; Cigarette; Communities; Data; Data Pooling; Disease; Epidemiology; Esthesia; Ethnic group; Excision; Frequencies; Goals; Grant; Guidelines; Health; Hispanics; Income; Individual; K-Series Research Career Programs; Literature; Longitudinal Studies; Low income; Malignant Neoplasms; Markov Chains; Menthol; Mentorship; Meta-Analysis; Minority Groups; Modeling; Not Hispanic or Latino; Pattern; Play; Policies; Population; Probability; Public Health; Reporting; Research; Research Personnel; Research Priority; Role; Sales; Smoker; Smoking; Study models; Surveys; Taste Perception; Testing; Time; Tobacco; Tobacco use; Tobacco-Related Carcinoma; Training; United States; United States Food and Drug Administration; Work; Youth; career; cigarette smoking; ethnic minority population; former smoker; health disparity; improved; interest; models and simulation; novel; preference; preventable death; programs; public policy on tobacco; racial and ethnic; racial and ethnic disparities; skills; socioeconomics; systematic review; time use; tobacco control; tobacco products; tool

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT Smoking is the leading cause of preventable disease and death in the United States. More than one-third of smokers in the United States use menthol cigarettes. Menthol cigarettes are of particular public health concern because they make it easier for adolescents to initiate smoking and are more difficult to quit than non-menthol cigarettes. In addition, menthol cigarettes are disproportionately used by youth, low-income and racial/ethnic minority smokers. In 2011 the Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee (TPSAC), a Congressionally mandated committee assembled to advise the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), reported that “removal of menthol cigarettes from the marketplace would benefit public health in the United States.” Despite TPSAC’s conclusion, the FDA has not banned menthol cigarettes. Instead, the FDA has requested additional research to inform regulatory action. The objective of this project is to use microsimulation modeling to estimate the impact of a national menthol cigarette ban on tobacco use and tobacco-related disease, specifically cardiovascular disease (CVD) and tobacco-related cancers. This research would inform potential FDA regulatory action on menthol cigarettes. The project has three aims. Aim 1 identifies trajectories of cigarette use over time using longitudinal, nationally representative survey data. To achieve this aim, I will use Markov chains to compute transition probabilities of tobacco use behavior (frequency, intensity, flavor preference) over time. Aim 2 systematically reviews and meta-analyzes studies examining the effects of menthol cigarette bans on tobacco product use. This will be the first review to synthesize the literature on the impact of a menthol cigarette ban, providing critical information for microsimulation modeling. Aim 3 builds a microsimulation model of smoking and tobacco-related disease to estimate the impact of a national menthol cigarette ban on smoking, CVD, and tobacco-related cancers. I will establish parameters for the model using the best epidemiological evidence and conduct sensitivity analyses to test the validity of the model. Finally, I will estimate the change in smoking, CVD, and tobacco-related cancers that would occur in the total population and in specific socioeconomic and racial/ethnic groups if a menthol cigarette ban were implemented. I hypothesize that a national menthol cigarette ban will reduce socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities in smoking, CVD, and tobacco-related cancers. The career development award will help me achieve my goal of becoming an independent tobacco control and health disparities researcher. I will receive the training and mentorship needed to build an independent research program focused on the role tobacco control policy may play in improving the public’s health, in particular among groups that disproportionately suffer from smoking and tobacco-related disease. This award will culminate in an application for an R01 grant to expand upon my microsimulation model, comparing the impacts of additional tobacco control policies on smoking and disease.

项目概要/摘要 在美国，吸烟是导致可预防疾病和死亡的主要原因。 美国吸烟者使用薄荷香烟 薄荷香烟尤其引起公众健康关注。 因为它们使青少年更容易开始吸烟，并且比非薄荷醇更难戒烟 此外，青少年、低收入和种族/族裔使用薄荷香烟的比例过高。 2011 年，国会烟草产品科学咨询委员会 (TPSAC) 为食品和药物管理局 (FDA) 提供建议的授权委员会报告称，“取消 尽管 TPSA 表示，市场上的薄荷卷烟将有利于美国的公众健康。 结论是，FDA 并未禁止薄荷卷烟，相反，FDA 已要求进行更多研究。 该项目的目标是使用微观模拟模型来估计 全国薄荷卷烟禁令对烟草使用和烟草相关疾病的影响，特别是 这项研究将为潜在的 FDA 提供信息。 针对薄荷卷烟的监管行动 目标 1 确定了卷烟的发展轨迹。 为了实现这一目标，我将使用马尔可夫。 计算烟草使用行为（频率、强度、口味偏好）转变概率的链 目标 2 系统回顾和荟萃分析研究薄荷醇卷烟禁令的影响。 这将是第一篇综合有关薄荷醇影响的文献的综述。 禁烟令，为微观模拟建模提供关键信息 Aim 3 构建微观模拟模型。 吸烟和烟草相关疾病的研究，以估计全国薄荷卷烟禁令对吸烟的影响， 我将使用最佳流行病学方法建立模型参数。 证据并进行敏感性分析来测试模型的有效性，最后，我将估计变化。 总人口和特定人群中可能发生的吸烟、心血管疾病和烟草相关癌症 如果实施薄荷卷烟禁令，失业和种族/族裔群体将会受到影响。 全国薄荷醇卷烟禁令将减少吸烟、心血管疾病和吸烟方面的社会经济和种族/民族差异 职业发展奖将帮助我实现成为一名烟草相关癌症的目标。 独立的烟草控制和健康差异研究员我将接受培训和指导。 需要建立一个独立的研究计划，重点关注烟草控制政策在 改善公众的健康，特别是吸烟和吸烟的人群的健康 该奖项最终将导致我申请 R01 补助金，以扩大我的研究范围。 微观模拟模型，比较额外的烟草控制政策对吸烟和疾病的影响。