The Long Term Impact of Income Transfers During Childhood

童年时期收入转移的长期影响

• 批准号: 9428963
• 负责人: Adriana Lleras-Muney
• 金额: $ 20.85万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-07-25 至 2019-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9428963
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Affect; Age; Cause of Death; Censuses; Cessation of life; Characteristics; Child; Child Welfare; Childhood; Collection; Control Groups; County; Data; Data Analyses; Data Security; Data Set; Divorce; Economics; Education; Elderly; Eligibility Determination; Employment; Family; Government; Health; Height; Heterogeneity; Income; Individual; Inequality; Length; Life; Likelihood Functions; Link; Literature; Long-Term Effects; Measurement; Methods; Modeling; Mothers; Occupations; Outcome; Parents; Pensions; Policy Maker; Process; Public Policy; Records; Research; Sampling; Schools; Social Security; Social Welfare; Socioeconomic Status; Surveys; Techniques; United States Social Security Administration; Variant; Weight; Widow; Widowhood; Woman; Work; World War II; beneficiary; child poverty; disability; improved; indexing; interest; mortality; programs; public health relevance; theories

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Recent literature documents that adverse early-life conditions can have negative long-term effects on education, labor market outcomes, and mortality. However, there is scant evidence as to whether public policies such as income transfers to poor families can effectively improve the underlying conditions of the young. We propose the first analysis of the long-term effects of cash transfers (welfare) on recipient children by evaluating the effects of Mothers' Pension (MP) programs on mortality, disability, earnings and educational attainment. The results will better inform policy-makers regarding the potential for income transfers to reduce the impact of disparities in childhood circumstances on lifetime differences in socioeconomic status and health. MP programs (1911-1935) were the first government sponsored welfare program for families with dependent children in the U.S. and served as the basis for the federal program that is currently known as TANF. Among the state programs, there was considerable heterogeneity in eligibility (widowed only vs. inclusion of abandoned/divorced women), amount of monthly pension and duration, and conditions of receipt (unconditional, maternal work, or child school attendance). [We have collected information on over 80,000 accepted and rejected MP applicants in 14 states who applied between1911 and1935. We are in the process of matching these individual data with information from the Social Security Administration that includes date of death, disability application/receipt, and earnings, as well as to information from the 1940 census and World War II (WWII) enlistment records on years of completed schooling, occupation, height and IQ, and 1940 income (Aim 1). To our knowledge, this dataset will constitute the first large-scale collection of records for which early conditions in childhood can be linked with medium and long-term outcomes and a de-identified linked dataset containing the public data will be made available for research purposes. We will use these data to evaluate the impact of cash transfers in childhood on medium and long-term outcomes using identification techniques that rely on the construction of appropriate control groups. These include rejected applicants in the same county and year, ineligible mothers (e.g., divorced or abandoned mothers) in counties with strict eligibility requirements (e.g., widows only), and widowed mothers in states that did not establish, or were very late to establish, a mothers pension program (Aim 2). Finally, we are developing new econometric techniques for using imperfectly matched data. The current state of the art is to limit analysis to only perfectly or uniquely matched data, but this unnecessarily discards a great deal of information (all unmatched and multiply matched data) and ignores measurement error (some individuals are incorrectly matched). We are developing econometric techniques that will make use all of the information in the data (unique, multiple and no matches) by approximating the process that generates the data using reasonable parametric models and also estimating bounds (Aim 3).]

描述（由申请人提供）：最近的文献证明，不利的早期生活可能会对教育，劳动力市场成果和死亡率产生负面影响。但是，有很少的证据表明，诸如贫困家庭收入之类的公共政策是否可以有效地改善年轻人的潜在条件。我们通过评估母亲的养老金计划（MP）计划对死亡率，残疾，收入和教育程度的影响，首先提出了对现金转移（福利）（福利）（福利）（福利）的长期影响的首次分析。结果将更好地告知决策者收入转移的潜力，以减少儿童时期对社会经济地位和健康终生差异的影响的影响。 国会议员计划（1911-1935）是针对美国有抚养子女的家庭的第一个政府赞助的福利计划，并作为目前被称为TANF的联邦计划的基础。在国家计划中，资格有很大的异质性（仅寡妇与被废弃/离婚的妇女的包容），每月的养老金和持续时间以及收据条件（无条件，孕产妇工作或儿童学校出勤）。 [我们收集了有关14个申请1911年和1935年申请的州的MP申请人超过80,000名的信息。我们正在将这些个别数据与社会保障局的信息匹配，包括死亡日期，残疾申请/收据以及收入以及1940年人口普查和第二次世界大战（第二次世界大战）的信息（第二次世界大战）入伍记录，这些记录涉及完成的学校，占领，职业，身高和智商的多年，以及1940年的收入（AIM 1）。据我们所知，该数据集将构成第一个大规模的记录集合，其中童年的早期条件可以与中期和长期结果联系起来，并且将提供包含公共数据的被取消识别的链接数据集用于研究目的。我们将使用这些数据来评估童年现金转移对中等和长期结果的影响，使用依赖适当控制组的构建的识别技术。其中包括在同一县和年份中被拒绝的申请人，不合格的母亲（例如，离婚或被遗弃的母亲）在严格的资格要求（例如，仅限寡妇）中，以及未建立，没有确定，没有确定，没有确定，寡妇的母亲 或建立非常晚的母亲养老金计划（AIM 2）。最后，我们正在开发新的计量经济学技术，用于使用不完美匹配的数据。目前的最新状态是将分析仅限于完美或唯一匹配的数据，但这不必要地丢弃了大量信息（所有无与伦比的和乘匹配的数据），而忽略了测量误差（某些人是错误匹配的）。我们正在发展计算技术，通过近似使用合理的参数模型生成数据的过程并估算界限（AIM 3），它将使用数据（唯一，多个和无匹配）中的所有信息（唯一，多重和无匹配）。