The Long Term Impact of Income Transfers During Childhood

童年时期收入转移的长期影响

• 批准号: 8696506
• 负责人: Adriana Lleras-Muney
• 金额: $ 30.32万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-07-25 至 2017-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8696506
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Affect; Age; Binding; Cause of Death; Censuses; Cessation of life; Characteristics; Child; Child Welfare; Childhood; Collection; Control Groups; County; Data; Data Analyses; Data Set; Divorce; Economics; Education; Elderly; Eligibility Determination; Employment; Family; Government; Health; Height; Heterogeneity; Income; Individual; Inequality; Length; Life; Likelihood Functions; Link; Literature; Long-Term Effects; Marketing; Measurement; Methods; Modeling; Mothers; Occupations; Outcome; Parents; Pensions; Policy Maker; Process; Public Policy; Records; Research; Sampling; Schools; Social Security; Social Welfare; Socioeconomic Status; Surveys; Techniques; United States Social Security Administration; Variant; Weight; Widow; Widowhood; Woman; Work; World War II; base; beneficiary; child poverty; disability; improved; indexing; interest; mortality; programs; public health relevance; theories

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Recent literature documents that adverse early-life conditions can have negative long-term effects on education, labor market outcomes, and mortality. However, there is scant evidence as to whether public policies such as income transfers to poor families can effectively improve the underlying conditions of the young. We propose the first analysis of the long-term effects of cash transfers (welfare) on recipient children by evaluating the effects of Mothers' Pension (MP) programs on mortality, disability, earnings and educational attainment. The results will better inform policy-makers regarding the potential for income transfers to reduce the impact of disparities in childhood circumstances on lifetime differences in socioeconomic status and health. MP programs (1911-1935) were the first government sponsored welfare program for families with dependent children in the U.S. and served as the basis for the federal program that is currently known as TANF. Among the state programs, there was considerable heterogeneity in eligibility (widowed only vs. inclusion of abandoned/divorced women), amount of monthly pension and duration, and conditions of receipt (unconditional, maternal work, or child school attendance). [We have collected information on over 80,000 accepted and rejected MP applicants in 14 states who applied between1911 and1935. We are in the process of matching these individual data with information from the Social Security Administration that includes date of death, disability application/receipt, and earnings, as well as to information from the 1940 census and World War II (WWII) enlistment records on years of completed schooling, occupation, height and IQ, and 1940 income (Aim 1). To our knowledge, this dataset will constitute the first large-scale collection of records for which early conditions in childhood can be linked with medium and long-term outcomes and a de-identified linked dataset containing the public data will be made available for research purposes. We will use these data to evaluate the impact of cash transfers in childhood on medium and long-term outcomes using identification techniques that rely on the construction of appropriate control groups. These include rejected applicants in the same county and year, ineligible mothers (e.g., divorced or abandoned mothers) in counties with strict eligibility requirements (e.g., widows only), and widowed mothers in states that did not establish, or were very late to establish, a mothers pension program (Aim 2). Finally, we are developing new econometric techniques for using imperfectly matched data. The current state of the art is to limit analysis to only perfectly or uniquely matched data, but this unnecessarily discards a great deal of information (all unmatched and multiply matched data) and ignores measurement error (some individuals are incorrectly matched). We are developing econometric techniques that will make use all of the information in the data (unique, multiple and no matches) by approximating the process that generates the data using reasonable parametric models and also estimating bounds (Aim 3).]

描述（由申请人提供）：最近的文献表明，不利的早期生活条件可能对教育、劳动力市场结果和死亡率产生长期负面影响。然而，缺乏证据表明向贫困家庭转移收入等公共政策能否有效改善年轻人的基本状况。我们建议通过评估母亲养老金（MP）计划对死亡率、残疾、收入和教育程度的影响，首次分析现金转移（福利）对受助儿童的长期影响。研究结果将更好地让政策制定者了解收入转移的潜力，以减少童年环境差异对终生社会经济地位和健康差异的影响。 MP 计划（1911-1935）是美国第一个政府资助的针对有受抚养子女的家庭的福利计划，也是目前称为 TANF 的联邦计划的基础。在国家计划中，在资格（仅丧偶妇女与包括被遗弃/离婚妇女）、每月养老金金额和期限以及领取条件（无条件、孕产妇工作或儿童入学）方面存在相当大的异质性。 [我们收集了 14 个州 80,000 多名在 1911 年至 1935 年间提出申请的议员申请者的信息。我们正在将这些个人数据与社会保障管理局提供的信息进行匹配，其中包括死亡日期、伤残申请/收据和收入，以及 1940 年人口普查和第二次世界大战 (WWII) 征兵记录中的信息。完成学业的年数、职业、身高和智商以及 1940 年的收入（目标 1）。据我们所知，该数据集将构成第一个大规模记录集合，将儿童早期状况与中长期结果联系起来，并且包含公共数据的去识别化链接数据集将可用于研究目的。我们将使用这些数据来评估儿童期现金转移对中长期结果的影响，使用依赖于构建适​​当对照组的识别技术。其中包括同一县和同一年份被拒绝的申请人、具有严格资格要求的县（例如仅限寡妇）的不符合资格的母亲（例如离婚或被遗弃的母亲）以及未建立以下规定的州的丧偶母亲： 或者很晚才建立母亲养老金计划（目标 2）。最后，我们正在开发新的计量经济学技术来使用不完全匹配的数据。目前的技术水平是将分析限制为仅完美或唯一匹配的数据，但这不必要地丢弃了大量信息（所有不匹配和多重匹配的数据）并忽略测量误差（某些个体被错误匹配）。我们正在开发计量经济学技术，通过使用合理的参数模型近似生成数据的过程并估计界限，利用数据中的所有信息（唯一、多重和不匹配）（目标 3）。]