The RAND Alcohol Policy Platform (RAPP): A Microsimulation Model of Alcohol Use, Consequences, and Policies in the United States

兰德酒精政策平台 (RAPP)：美国酒精使用、后果和政策的微观模拟模型

• 批准号: 9056952
• 负责人: Rosalie Liccardo Pacula
• 金额: $ 54.47万
• 依托单位: RAND CORPORATION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-05-15 至 2019-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9056952
• 关键词: Adopted; Age; Alcohol consumption; Alcohol dependence; Alcohols; Area; Awareness; Blood alcohol level measurement; Calendar; Canada; Cessation of life; Chile; Computers; Costs and Benefits; Country; Data; Data Sources; Disease; Economic Policy; Economics; Effectiveness; Evaluation; Finland; Health; Health Care Costs; Heavy Drinking; Human; Impact evaluation; Income; Individual; International; Knowledge; Light; Literature; Measures; Methodology; Mexico; Modeling; Outcome; Pattern; Policies; Policy Developments; Policy Maker; Population; Prevention strategy; Price; Process; Productivity; Public Health; Reporting; Research Personnel; Risk Factors; Sampling Errors; Social Impacts; Social Policies; Societies; Structure; Taxes; Testing; Time; Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States; alcohol abuse therapy; alcohol misuse; base; binge drinking; brief intervention; case-based; cohort; comparative; consumption measures; cost; cost effectiveness; design; development policy; drinking; drinking behavior; economic impact; health service use; interest; models and simulation; novel; novel strategies; prevent; public policy on alcohol; research and development; social; social norm; tool; treatment strategy

DESCRIPTION: The growing burden of alcohol consumption on health and society at both the national and the international level have contributed to the raising awareness and interest in effective alcohol control policy. In the United States (U.S.), there are approximately 80,000 deaths each year attributed to alcohol use. Healthcare costs alone are estimated at $25.6 billion, with the full societal cost of excessive drinking exceeding $220 billion. At the global leel, alcohol use is the third leading risk factor for poor health and was the cause of 4% of all deaths worldwide in 2004. Among young people between the ages of 15 and 29, nine in ten deaths are due to alcohol-related causes. However, the relative scarcity of well-grounded and comprehensive analytic tools often prevents national and international policy bodies from considering the full range of costs and consequences of different policy actions. In this 5 year project, we propose to build an integrated decision-support platform that can be used to conduct evaluations of the health, social and economic impacts of alternative alcohol policies within and across national jurisdictions. The specific aims of this project are to do the following: (1) Develop, test and validate a dynamic micro simulation modeling platform, capturing both individual and social dynamics of alcohol use for the U.S. and a selection of six other relevant high- and middle-income countries; (2) Use the platform to project the health, social and economic consequences associated with current alcohol-use patterns; and (3) Assess the outcomes and costs of three alcohol control policies (pricing policies, blood alcohol concentration levels, and treatment) at reducing the social harms associated with alcohol misuse. Our model will track individuals' alcohol consumption on a per drink basis and capture key diseases and health outcomes, health service utilization and costs, and productivity impacts across the U.S. and six other countries, thereby enabling the model to consider important interactions between policy and social structures. Importantly, a novel estimation process is proposed that will rigorously quantify the effect of parameter uncertainty on results. This improvement in model estimation will enable more effective evaluation of the impacts of prevention and treatment strategies and has the potential to influence the social-policy modeling field. Countries to be included in the platform are: Canada, Chile, Finland, Mexico, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. Our internationally comparable platform will enable U.S. policy makers and researchers to evaluate, for the U.S., the impact of alcohol policies implemented elsewhere: including higher alcohol taxes and more affordable treatment.

描述：国家和国际一级的饮酒负担越来越多，促进了人们对有效酒精控制政策的提高意识和兴趣。在美国（美国），每年大约有80,000人死亡归因于饮酒。仅医疗保健费用估计为256亿美元，过度饮酒的全部成本超过22.2亿美元。在全球Leel，饮酒是健康状况不佳的第三大领先危险因素，是2004年全球所有死亡人数中4％的原因。在15至29岁的年轻人中，十九人死亡是由于酒精相关的原因。但是，良好和全面的分析工具的相对稀缺通常会阻止国家和国际政策机构考虑不同政策行动的全部成本和后果。 在这个5年的项目中，我们建议建立一个综合的决策支持平台，该平台可用于评估国家司法管辖区内和跨国公司内部和跨国公司对替代酒精政策的健康，社会和经济影响。该项目的具体目的是进行以下操作：（1）开发，测试和验证动态的微型模拟建模平台，捕获美国酒精使用的个人和社会动态，并选择其他六个相关的高和中等收入国家； （2）使用该平台投射与当前酒精使用模式相关的健康，社会和经济后果； （3）评估三种酒精控制政策的结果和成本（定价政策，血液酒精浓度水平和治疗），以减少与酒精滥用相关的社会危害。我们的模型将以每饮料的基础跟踪个人的饮酒，并捕获关键疾病和健康成果，健康服务利用和成本以及整个美国和其他六个国家的生产力影响，从而使该模型能够考虑政策与社会结构之间的重要互动。重要的是，提出了一个新的估计过程，该过程将严格量化参数不确定性对结果的影响。模型估计的这种改进将使对预防和治疗策略的影响进行更有效的评估，并有可能影响社会政策建模领域。该平台包括：加拿大，智利，芬兰，墨西哥，俄罗斯联邦，英国和美国。我们的国际可比平台将使美国政策制定者和研究人员能够为美国评估其他地方实施的酒精政策的影响：包括更高的酒精税和更实惠的待遇。