International Alcohol Policy Model

国际酒精政策模型

• 批准号: 8630335
• 负责人: Rosalie Liccardo Pacula
• 金额: $ 56.45万
• 依托单位: RAND CORPORATION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-05-15 至 2019-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8630335
• 关键词: Adopted; Age; Alcohol consumption; Alcohol dependence; Alcohols; Area; Awareness; Blood alcohol level measurement; Calendar; Canada; Cessation of life; Chile; Computers; Costs and Benefits; Country; Data; Data Sources; Disease; Economic Policy; Economics; Effectiveness; Evaluation; Finland; Health; Health Care Costs; Heavy Drinking; Human; Impact evaluation; Income; Individual; International; Knowledge; Light; Literature; Measures; Methodology; Mexico; Modeling; Outcome; Pattern; Policies; Policy Developments; Policy Maker; Population; Prevention strategy; Price; Process; Productivity; Public Health; Relative (related person); Reporting; Research Personnel; Risk Factors; Sampling Errors; Social Impacts; Social Policies; Societies; Structure; Taxes; Testing; Time; Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States; alcohol abuse therapy; alcohol misuse; base; binge drinking; brief intervention; case-based; cohort; comparative; consumption measures; cost; cost effectiveness; design; development policy; drinking; drinking behavior; economic impact; health care service utilization; interest; models and simulation; novel; novel strategies; prevent; public health relevance; public policy on alcohol; research and development; social; social norm; tool; treatment strategy

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT The growing burden of alcohol consumption on health and society at both the national and the international level have contributed to the raising awareness and interest in effective alcohol control policy. In the United States (U.S.), there are approximately 80,000 deaths each year attributed to alcohol use. Healthcare costs alone are estimated at $25.6 billion, with the full societal cost of excessive drinking exceeding $220 billion. At the global level, alcohol use is the third leading risk factor for poor health and was the cause of 4% of all deaths worldwide in 2004. Among young people between the ages of 15 and 29, nine in ten deaths are due to alcohol-related causes. However, the relative scarcity of well-grounded and comprehensive analytic tools often prevents national and international policy bodies from considering the full range of costs and consequences of different policy actions. In this 5 year project, we propose to build an integrated decision-support platform that can be used to conduct evaluations of the health, social and economic impacts of alternative alcohol policies within and across national jurisdictions. The specific aims of this project are to do the following: (1) Develop, test and validate a dynamic microsimulation modeling platform, capturing both individual and social dynamics of alcohol use for the U.S. and a selection of six other relevant high- and middle-income countries; (2) Use the platform to project the health, social and economic consequences associated with current alcohol-use patterns; and (3) Assess the outcomes and costs of three alcohol control policies (pricing policies, blood alcohol concentration levels, and treatment) at reducing the social harms associated with alcohol misuse. Our model will track individuals' alcohol consumption on a per drink basis and capture key diseases and health outcomes, health service utilization and costs, and productivity impacts across the U.S. and six other countries, thereby enabling the model to consider important interactions between policy and social structures. Importantly, a novel estimation process is proposed that will rigorously quantify the effect of parameter uncertainty on results. This improvement in model estimation will enable more effective evaluation of the impacts of prevention and treatment strategies and has the potential to influence the social-policy modeling field. Countries to be included in the platform are: Canada, Chile, Finland, Mexico, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States. Our internationally comparable platform will enable U.S. policy makers and researchers to evaluate, for the U.S., the impact of alcohol policies implemented elsewhere: including higher alcohol taxes and more affordable treatment.

项目摘要/摘要 在国家和国家的健康和社会上，饮酒的负担越来越大 国际一级有助于提高对有效酒精控制政策的意识和兴趣。在 美国（美国），每年大约有80,000人死亡归因于饮酒。 仅医疗保健费用估计为256亿美元，饮酒过量的全部成本超过 2200亿美元。在全球范围内，饮酒是健康状况不佳的第三主要危险因素，是 2004年全球所有死亡人数中有4％。在15至29岁之间的年轻人中，有十名死亡人数 是由于与酒精相关的原因。但是，良好和全面的分析的相对稀缺 工具通常会阻止国家和国际政策机构考虑各种成本范围和 不同政策行动的后果。 在这个5年的项目中，我们建议建立一个综合决策平台，可用于 对跨越替代性酒精政策的健康，社会和经济影响进行评估 国家司法管辖区。该项目的具体目的是执行以下操作：（1）开发，测试和验证A 动态微仿真平台，捕获酒精使用的个人和社会动态 美国以及其他六个相关的高收入国家和中等收入国家； （2）使用平台进行项目 与当前的酒精使用模式相关的健康，社会和经济后果； （3）评估 三种酒精控制政策的结果和成本（定价政策，血液浓度水平， 和治疗）减少与滥用酒精有关的社会危害。我们的模型将跟踪个人的 每次饮料饮酒并捕获关键疾病和健康成果，健康服务 美国和其他六个国家的利用和成本以及生产力的影响，从而使 考虑政策与社会结构之间重要互动的模型。重要的是，一个新颖的估计 提出的过程将严格量化参数不确定性对结果的影响。这 改进模型估计将使对预防影响的影响更有效地评估 治疗策略，并有可能影响社会政策建模领域。国家 该平台包括：加拿大，智利，芬兰，墨西哥，俄罗斯联邦，英国和 美国。我们的国际可比平台将使美国政策制定者和研究人员能够 评估美国在其他地方实施的酒精政策的影响：包括更高的酒精税 以及更负担得起的治疗。