Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: The Diffusion of Automobiles and Motortrucks in the United States in the 20th Century

经济学博士论文研究：20世纪美国汽车和卡车的扩散

• 批准号: 2049741
• 负责人: Price Fishback
• 金额: $ 1.72万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2049741&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Economics; Diffusion

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).This doctoral dissertation in economics examines the diffusion of automobiles and motortrucks on American farms in the early- and mid-20th century – specifically, the impact of last-mile all-weather road access on said diffusion, and the impact of said diffusion on agricultural productivity. This dissertation also examines the impact of group identity on the decisions of citizens and economic agents as they consider agreements to fully integrate capital, labor, and trade flows between a developed country and a developing country (as has occurred in the European Union). In the U.S., automobiles and motortrucks all but replaced railroads for long-distance travel, both passenger and freight. The pace of diffusion was likely powerfully influenced by access to all-weather roads and farmers were among the early adopters of automobiles and motortrucks. In less developed countries today, there is tremendous growth in the sales of motor vehicles, but lack of last-mile road access slows the diffusion of motor vehicles on farms. Measuring the impact of all-weather road access on uptake of automobiles and motortrucks is critical to reliably modelling the future of climate patterns, world transportation networks, urban growth patterns, demographics, and agriculture. Measuring the impact of automobile and motortruck uptake on agricultural productivity and decomposing the impact into a labor-saving and land-saving component, is critical to better examining in the context of agriculture the induced innovation hypothesis posited by Hicks (1932): "a change in the relative prices of the factors of production is itself a spur to invention, and to invention of a particular kind—directed to economizing the use of a factor which has become relatively expensive." Proposed or existing international agreements liberalizing capital, labor, and trade flows are often politically opposed by many citizens of prospective signatory nations, and sometimes either fail to be adopted or are withdrawn from, despite overwhelming consensus and a high degree of confidence that such deals will result in boosts to the national incomes of all signatory nations (and general efficiency gains to the world economy as a whole). Understanding the impact of group identity on political decisions in favor or against economic integration is critical to understanding events such as the eastward expansion of the European Union, the Brexit withdrawal, and various nativist movements surging throughout the developed world.For the dissertation chapter on the impact of road access on automobile and motortruck uptake on farms, a panel data set of counties is developed from U.S. Agricultural Censuses from 1929 to 1959, the period of most rapid diffusion of motor vehicles on farms. In OLS specifications with road access as a single variable with county and state-by-year effects and multiple controls, road access was associated with usage rates that were 4.6% higher for motortrucks and 2.8% higher for automobiles. IV estimation based on a polynomial spatial-lag instrument indicates that road access caused usage rates to be 3.6% higher for motortrucks and 4.2% higher for automobiles. These averages disguise a great deal of heterogeneity in the effect of road access. The impact of road access differed markedly by the types of crops and farm products produced in a county. When examining the impact of automobiles and motortrucks on agricultural productivity, a CES-translog, a Cobb-Douglas translog (with the interaction terms), and a log-log (without the interaction terms) production function of farm enterprises will be estimated, with each observation being the farm enterprises in a single county. The effect of each factor of production will be allowed to vary based on the crop composition of the county. Demographic, climate, and weather control variables will be controlled for at the county level. Changes in total factor productivity will be examined. The impact of automobiles and motortrucks will separately be decomposed into labor-saving and land-saving components. The experiment examining the impact of group identity on economic integration is motivated by the Metzler-Richards labor supply model as adapted by Agranov and Palfrey (2015) and a voting model that actualizes the Median Voter Theorem. One may hypothesize that taxation rates selected would be higher among populations with stronger in-group sentiment, and that conditional on a given taxation rate stronger in-group sentiment will cause the electorates of countries with higher-skilled workforces to be less likely to vote in favor of integration. However, the ultimate impact of in-group identity on the integration vote of the electorates of countries is theoretically indeterminate, as although conditional on a taxation rate in-group identity may cause fewer votes to be in favor of integration, in-group identity increases the tax rate enacted and the likelihood of a subject in countries with more-skilled workforces voting for integration is increasing in the tax rate. The results of the experiment will show which of these two effects is greater.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项是根据2021年《美国救援计划法》的全部或部分资助（公共法117-2）。这本博士学位论文在经济学考试中的论文是在20世纪初期和20世纪中期对美国农场中的汽车和摩托车的扩散 - 具体来说，特别是全沃瑟道路对所述扩散的影响的影响力的影响，以及对作用的影响。本文还研究了群体认同对公民和经济代理商的决定的影响，因为他们考虑协议以完全整合发达国家和发展中国家之间的资本，劳动和贸易流量（正如欧盟发生的那样）。在美国，汽车和摩托车几乎全部取代了乘客和货运的长途旅行的铁路。扩散速度可能受到通往全天候道路的有力影响，而农民是汽车和摩托车的早期采用者。在当今较不发达国家的国家，机动车的销量销量巨大，但缺乏最后一英里的道路通道会减缓汽车在农场上的扩散。衡量全天候道路通道对汽车和摩托车的吸收的影响对于可靠地建模气候模式，世界运输网络，城市增长模式，人口统计和农业的未来至关重要。测量自动驾驶和摩托车对农业生产力的影响，并将影响分解为避免实验室的避免实验室和避免土地的成分，对于在同意诱导的创新假设的背景下更好地检查至关重要因素已经变得相对昂贵。”拟议或现有的国际协议将资本，劳动和贸易流程自由化在政治上通常受到许多潜在签署国的公民的反对，有时甚至没有被采用，或者没有被撤回，或者从撤回，多皮特压倒性的共识和高度的信心，这些交易将导致所有签署国（和总体效率的国家和整个世界的经济）的全国收入，这会导致促进全球的全国收入。 Understanding the impact of group identity on political decisions in favor or against economic integration is critical to Understanding events such as the Eastward expansion of the European Union, the Brexit withdrawal, and various nativist movements surging throughout the developed world.For the dissertation chapter on the impact of road access on automobile and motortruck uptake on farms, a panel data set of counties is developed from U.S. Agricultural Censuses from 1929 to 1959, the period of most rapid机动车在农场上的扩散。在以公路通道为单一变量的OLS规格中，县和州逐年效果和多个控制措施，摩托车的使用率高4.6％，汽车高2.8％。基于多项式空间延迟仪器的IV估计表明，摩托车的使用率高3.6％，汽车的使用率提高了4.2％。这些平均值在道路通道的影响方面掩盖了很多异质性。县生产的农作物和农产品的类型对道路通道的影响有所不同。在研究汽车和摩托车对农产品的影响时，CES-Translog，Cobb-Douglas Translog（带有相互作用的术语）以及估计农场企业的生产功能的日志公司（不具有相互作用的术语），每个县的农业企业都是农场企业。每个生产要素的影响将根据该县的作物组成而变化。人口，攀登和天气控制变量将在县级控制。将检查总要素生产率的变化。汽车和摩托车的影响将分别分解为避免劳动力和储蓄的组件。梅茨勒 - 瑞奇（Metzler-Richards）劳动力供应模型由Agranov和Palfrey（2015）改编而来，研究了群体身份对经济融合的影响的实验以及实际上中位选民定理的声乐模型。可以假设，在群体内情绪更强的人群中，所选择的税率将更高，并且以给定的税收率更强的有条件的税收率更强的群体内情绪将导致具有高技能劳动力的国家的选民不太可能投票支持融合。然而，在理论上，群体内认同对国家选民的融合投票的最终影响是不确定的，因为否则以税收率的税率群体内身份可能导致更少的投票支持融合，团体内的身份会增加税率的纳税率，这会增加税率的税率，并且在综合劳动力中的范围内的税收率更高。实验的结果将表明这两种效果中的哪个效果更大。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响评估标准被视为值得通过评估获得支持。