Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: The Economic Impact of the Tennessee Valley Authority: An Econometric Analysis 1933-1950

经济学博士论文研究：田纳西河谷管理局的经济影响：1933-1950 年的计量经济学分析

• 批准号: 1022756
• 负责人: Price Fishback
• 金额: $ 1万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-09-01 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1022756&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Economics; Economic

During the first 100 days of President Franklin D. Roosevelt's administration, a flurry of new legislation was passed in the hopes that the economy and people's lives would turn around. The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), a government sponsored corporation, was targeted to improve the livelihood of those living in the rural Tennessee River Valley. In the first six years of its existence, the TVA accumulated assets of over $3 trillion in year 2000 dollars. These assets included budgeted monies from Congress, spending on construction projects such as dams and reservoirs, electric distribution equipment, and land (1939 TVA Annual Report). With such large amounts of money being pumped into the Tennessee Valley it is natural to try and measure the benefits of the project relative to the cost. Between 1933 and 1939, per capita retail sales spending at the county level increased 68% across the entire country and 72% in the Tennessee Valley. Part of this increase may be due to the natural turnaround in the economy, but with such significant spending the turnaround might also be attributable, at least in part, to the TVA.The TVA provided electricity, flood control, recreational facilities, malaria control, and improved river navigation. During construction at some reservoirs, the TVA constructed towns and schools. The first director of the TVA, Arthur Morgan, began to implement other practices, such as fertilizer experiment stations, agricultural experiment farms, replanted forest, and bean canning operations. The TVA had a hand on almost every part of the Tennessee Valley in some shape or form.Today, similar river management projects have been established around the world. The most notable being China's damming of the Yangtze River, which includes a series of eight dams controlling the flow of water along the river system. The most notable of these dams is Three Gorges Dam. The entire project has boasted claims of improving navigation, reducing the impact of floods, and generating hydro electricity. However, the construction has raised issues over the removal of families from the land, and has the potential to change the disease environment in the construction zone. By studying the TVA, which experienced many of the same concerns during its construction, insight may be gained on the long lasting economic effects of these projects that are being considered or currently brought online. The long range goal of this research is to examine the impact of the TVA on the American economy using cost-benefit analyses. The broad range of TVA activities requires the assessment of its impact in several key areas and then the aggregation of measures of its impact. The PI's initial research examines specific features of the TVA that can be merged into the longer term goal. These include studies of the TVA's program for purchasing or using eminent domain to acquire property, measuring the impact of the TVA on broad measures of economic activity, and determining the number of lives saved by the TVA program to combat malaria. These initial studies serve two purposes. They provide new empirical tests of the impact of specific types of policies while also serving as building blocks for the long range study of the overall impact of the TVA.Intellectual Merit: The TVA provides a backdrop to study many problems in the economics literature. These fields include multilateral bargaining, long term contract analysis, and public health program evaluation. Data that are available only in paper form will be computerized into usable files. This will include 1930's individual level survey data, 1930's and 1940's historic property purchases, 1920's and 1930's war mobilization plans, disease specific county level mortality and morbidity data between 1925-1950, and county level financial data over the same period.Broader Impact: The TVA provides a long standing history of regional water management. Many of the current concerns existed during the creation of the TVA: removal of residents from flooded areas, property purchase practices, the broader economic impact of dam construction, and unintended consequences, such as increases in infectious disease rates. By examining the TVA, light will be shed onto whether or not comparable massive projects are economically justified over their lifetime.

在富兰克林·罗斯福总统执政的头 100 天里，通过了一系列新立法，希望经济和人民生活能够好转。 田纳西河谷管理局 (TVA) 是一家政府资助的公司，其目标是改善田纳西河谷农村地区居民的生计。 在其成立的头六年里，TVA 积累的资产按 2000 年计算超过 3 万亿美元。 这些资产包括国会的预算资金、水坝和水库等建设项目的支出、配电设备和土地（1939 年 TVA 年度报告）。 随着如此大量的资金被注入田纳西河谷，我们自然会尝试衡量该项目相对于成本的收益。 1933 年至 1939 年间，全国县级人均零售支出增长了 68%，田纳西河流域增长了 72%。 这种增长的部分原因可能是经济的自然好转，但由于支出如此之大，这种好转也可能至少部分归因于 TVA。TVA 提供电力、防洪、娱乐设施、疟疾控制、并改善河流航运。在一些水库建设期间，TVA 建设了城镇和学校。 田纳西州管理局首任局长阿瑟·摩根开始实施其他实践，如化肥实验站、农业实验农场、重新种植森林和豆类罐头业务。 田纳西河流域管理局几乎以某种形式介入了田纳西河谷的每一个部分。如今，世界各地都建立了类似的河流管理项目。 最引人注目的是中国在长江上筑坝，其中包括八座水坝，控制沿江水系的水流。这些水坝中最著名的是三峡大坝。 整个项目声称可以改善航运，减少洪水的影响，并产生水力发电。 然而，施工引发了家庭搬离土地的问题，并有可能改变施工区的疾病环境。 TVA 在建设过程中也经历了许多相同的问题，通过研究 TVA，可以深入了解这些正在考虑或目前上线的项目的长期经济影响。 这项研究的长期目标是通过成本效益分析来检验 TVA 对美国经济的影响。 TVA 活动范围广泛，需要评估其在几个关键领域的影响，然后汇总其影响的衡量标准。 PI 的初步研究考察了 TVA 的具体特征，这些特征可以合并到长期目标中。 其中包括对 TVA 购买或使用征用权获取财产的计划的研究，衡量 TVA 对广泛经济活动指标的影响，以及确定 TVA 抗击疟疾计划挽救的生命数量。 这些初步研究有两个目的。它们为特定类型政策的影响提供了新的实证检验，同时也为 TVA 的整体影响的长期研究提供了基础。 学术价值：TV​​A 为研究经济学文献中的许多问题提供了背景。 这些领域包括多边谈判、长期合同分析和公共卫生计划评估。 仅以纸质形式提供的数据将被计算机化为可用的文件。 这将包括 1930 年的个人调查数据、1930 年代和 1940 年代的历史性房产购买、1920 年代和 1930 年代的战争动员计划、1925-1950 年间特定疾病县级死亡率和发病率数据以及同期县级财务数据。 TVA 有着悠久的区域水资源管理历史。 目前在 TVA 创建过程中存在许多问题：将居民从洪水泛滥地区转移、购买房产、大坝建设带来的更广泛的经济影响，以及传染病发病率上升等意想不到的后果。 通过检查 TVA，可以了解类似的大型项目在其生命周期内是否具有经济合理性。