Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Investigating the Economic Consequences of Atmospheric Nuclear Testing

经济学博士论文研究：调查大气核试验的经济后果

• 批准号: 1658749
• 负责人: Price Fishback
• 金额: $ 1.5万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-03-15 至 2018-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1658749&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Economics; Investigating

In the 1950s, the United States conducted scores of atmospheric nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site just northwest of Las Vegas. Millions of people were exposed to harmful radioactive material as a result of these tests, but the full extent of the health and welfare effects are unknown. Using radiation deposition data for the United States, the investigator studies the effects fallout had on American agriculture and human health. Current work by the National Cancer Institute has not combined radiation exposure estimates with publicly available U.S. Vital Statistics and public health data. The project fills this research gap and provides important insights into the direct effect of these tests upon American health. Though only populations in a small number of counties in Nevada, Utah, and Arizona have been compensated for downwind fallout exposure through the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act (RECA), this project investigates whether the human health consequences of the Nevada tests extend far beyond the RECA region. The investigator also examines whether radiation deposition from atmospheric tests between 1951 and 1958 resulted in considerable damage to the agricultural sector. Studying adaptive responses to this damage provides insight into how agricultural policy shapes agricultural investment and responses to adverse events.The investigator uses reduced-form econometric methods to provide a rigorous empirical account of the external damage caused by domestic atmospheric testing. This research methodology uses exogenous within-county variation in fallout patterns across years to measure the causal relationship between radioactive pollution and outcomes of interest. Using annual data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service and U.S. Agricultural Censuses, the investigator measures the direct effects of fallout on agricultural productivity and the adjustments made in response to these productivity shocks. The previous studies on the health consequences of radiation exposure from tests have focused primarily on identifying cancer risks among downwind populations and extrapolating out to the general population. This project uses national variation in fallout patterns and mortality to identify the causal relationship between fallout and public health. Using this methodology, the investigator measures not only the geographic extent of the harm, but also the temporal effect of radiation exposure upon regional mortality patterns. Through U.S. Vital Statistics and the Multiple Cause of Death data, this project identifies the causal channels driving the increase in crude deaths more accurately.

在1950年代，美国在拉斯维加斯西北部的内华达州测试地点进行了数十次大气核试验。由于这些测试，数以百万计的人暴露于有害的放射性材料，但健康和福利效应的全部程度尚不清楚。使用美国的辐射沉积数据，研究者研究影响了影响对美国农业和人类健康的影响。国家癌症研究所的当前工作尚未将辐射暴露估计与公开可用的美国生命统计和公共卫生数据相结合。该项目填补了这一研究空白，并为这些测试对美国健康的直接影响提供了重要的见解。尽管仅在内华达州，犹他州和亚利桑那州少数县的人口通过通过《辐射暴露赔偿法》（RECA）弥补了下风的辐射暴露（RECA），但该项目研究了内华达州测试的人类健康后果是否远远超出了RECA地区。研究人员还检查了1951年至1958年之间大气检验的辐射沉积是否导致农业部门造成了相当大的损害。研究对这种损害的适应性反应提供了有关农业政策如何塑造农业投资和对不良事件的反应的见解。研究人员使用减少形式的计量经济学方法来对家庭大气检测造成的外部损害进行严格的经验解释。该研究方法使用多年来的辐射模式的外源内部差异来衡量放射性污染与感兴趣的结果之间的因果关系。研究人员使用国家农业统计服务和美国农业普查的年度数据，衡量了影响对农业生产力的直接影响以及对这些生产力冲击的响应。先前关于测试辐射暴露的健康后果的研究主要集中在鉴定下风人群中的癌症风险并将其推断到普通人群中。该项目利用辐射模式和死亡率的全国性变化来确定后果与公共卫生之间的因果关系。使用这种方法，研究人员不仅测量了危害的地理范围，而且还测量了辐射暴露对区域死亡率模式的时间影响。通过美国的生命统计数据和死亡数据的多重原因，该项目确定了导致原油死亡增加的因果渠道。