Collaborative Research - Institutional Performance and Change during Boom and Bust: The Residential Mortgage Market, 1920-1940

合作研究 - 繁荣与萧条期间的机构绩效和变化：住宅抵押贷款市场，1920-1940 年

• 批准号: 1062079
• 负责人: Price Fishback
• 金额: $ 30.43万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-05-15 至 2015-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1062079&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Institutional; Performance; Change

PROJECT ABSTRACTInstitutional Performance and Change during Boom and Bust: The Residential Mortgage Market, 1920-1940The residential mortgage crisis that began in 2007 is more severe, in terms of rates of foreclosure and decreases in home prices and residential wealth, than any since the 1930s. The building and mortgage boom of the 1920s and bust of the 1930s, as a result, provide striking historical benchmarks against which to measure our own experience. History can play a much more important role, however, because it offers the opportunity to investigate three issues that are of great importance and relevance as we struggle through our own mortgage crisis: 1. We need to examine why the collapse in residential housing markets during the 1930s was so severe, and the recovery from it so uneven, in order to better understand how disruptions to the mortgage market contributed to the depth and duration of the Great Depression. These issues are relevant today because the volume of mortgage lending grew rapidly during the 1920s just as it did before the current crisis; because rapid innovation transformed mortgage loan contracts and funding channels in the lead-up to both episodes; and because both crises were marked by widespread disruption in mortgage lending channels. 2. We need to assess whether federal emergency responses were effective in ameliorating the impacts of the 1930s mortgage crisis. These New Deal interventions were extraordinary in size and scope, but similar to recent policies in that they encouraged widespread mortgage loan modification. Examining the emergency policies of the 1930s, as a result, can help us better understand how responses during the current crisis have succeeded and fallen short.3. We need to examine the performance of the mortgage market before, during and after the institutional structure of the nation?s mortgage market was permanently reshaped between 1932 and 1938 by the creation of the Federal Home Loan Bank System, the modern Saving & Loans industry, the FHA home mortgage loan insurance program, the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the introduction of the long-term, amortized, low-down payment mortgage loan. These institutions continue to form the basic framework of the modern mortgage market and understanding their origins will provide important guidance as we reshape them once again.All three issues deserve close investigation, but discussion of financial crises during the Great Depression has for decades been focused almost exclusively on the banking system and the stock market. This project is designed to rectify that oversight by stimulating for the first time a serious examination of the issues enumerated above. It does so in two steps. First, the core of the proposal is to create a publicly available, high-quality data base of institution-level mortgage lending activity that will allow scholars to investigate the operation of local and regional mortgage markets between 1920 and 1940. Second, the co-PIs will use the data base as it is being assembled to investigate several of the topics enumerated above in order to stimulate a broad discussion of this important historical episode.The importance of the data collection component of the project is easy to understand?research in economics is drawn to issues that can be investigated with readily available, high-quality data. Such data exist for the residential mortgage market before 1940, but the information is spread out in thousands of printed volumes held that are held in public and university archives. The data sit in this form because the dominant institutional mortgage lenders before 1940 were non-bank, state-chartered institutions such as Building & Loan Associations, Mutual Savings Banks and Life Insurance companies. The activities of these institutions were well-documented in annual reports of state regulatory authorities, but this information needs to collected, digitized and organized into a reliable and widely available data set. Most of the funding for this project will support photographing and digitizing the state-level reports; preparing extensive documentation so that these data can be easily used; and combining the institutional balance sheet data with neighborhood, city, and state level information on housing markets, economic activity and a broad range of demographic information. The data collection and assembly will take three years to complete and the collaborative structure of this project has been driven by its size and complexity.The co-PIs were drawn to this project after independently using federally-generated, county-level data to investigate one of the largest and most dramatic of the federal policy interventions of the 1930s?the Home Owners? Loan Corporation. The HOLC modified distressed mortgages on one-tenth of the nation?s owner-occupied homes between 1934 and 1936 and the work of the co-PIs have shown that this activity cushioned homeownership rates and home prices during the 1930s, but did not stimulate new home construction. In the course of these investigations the co-PIs became convinced that much more can be learned about HOLC?and FHA insurance, Fannie Mae discounting and FHLB supervision?if institution-level data were available to complement the county-level data they have already collected on mortgage and housing markets. The second phase of the project, therefore, will be a series of solo- and joint-authored empirical investigations by the co-PIs using the assembled data base. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (in This Time is Different) have recently shown that the historical perspective can inform us about severe economic crises and shape our responses to them. It is unfortunate, in contrast, that we have yet to closely examine the mortgage crisis of the 1930s or to fully appreciate its hard-earned lessons. The goal of this project is to facilitate that discussion so that history can assist as we struggle to move through and beyond our own mortgage crisis.

计划抽象的机构绩效和繁荣时期的变化：1920 - 1940年的住宅抵押贷款市场，2007年开始的住宅抵押贷款危机比1930年代以来的丧失抵押品赎回权和房屋价格和住宅财富的速度更为严重。 因此，1920年代和1930年代的胸围的建筑和抵押贷款蓬勃发展为衡量我们自己的经验提供了惊人的历史基准。 然而，历史可以发挥更重要的作用，因为它提供了调查三个非常重要和相关的问题，因为我们在我们自己的抵押危机中挣扎时：1。我们需要研究为什么1930年代住宅住房市场的崩溃如此严重，而从中恢复如此不稳定，从而使对抵押贷款市场的破坏如何损害了对抵押贷款的影响很大，这对深度和影响很大，这是一个很好的抑郁和持续的变化。这些问题今天很重要，因为在1920年代，抵押贷款的数量就像当前危机之前一样迅速增长。由于快速创新改变了抵押贷款合同和资金渠道，这两集都在推荐下；而且由于两种危机都以抵押贷款渠道的广泛破坏为特征。 2。我们需要评估联邦紧急响应是否有效减轻1930年代抵押危机的影响。这些新的交易干预措施的规模和范围非同寻常，但类似于最近的政策，因为它们鼓励了广泛的抵押贷款修改。因此，研究1930年代的紧急政策可以帮助我们更好地了解当前危机期间的反应如何成功并跌倒3。我们需要在1932年至1938年之间通过建立联邦住房贷款银行系统，现代储蓄和贷款行业，FHA房屋抵押贷款保险计划，联邦国家抵押协会（Fannie National National Mae Association，Federn National National National Mae）的长期偿还贷款，在1932年至1938年之间进行了抵押市场的绩效。这些机构继续构成现代抵押贷款市场的基本框架，并了解它们的起源将在我们再次重塑时提供重要的指导。所有三个问题都应进行密切调查，但是关于大萧条期间的金融危机数十年来几乎专门集中在银行系统和股票市场上。该项目旨在通过对上述列举的问题进行认真检查来纠正这一监督。 它以两个步骤进行。 首先，该提案的核心是在1920年至1940年之间创建一个机构级别抵押贷款活动的公开可用的，高质量的数据库，该活动将使学者能够调查当地和区域抵押贷款市场的运作要了解“经济学研究”是可以通过随时可用的高质量数据来调查的问题。这种数据存在于1940年之前的住宅抵押市场，但是这些信息分布在公共和大学档案馆中持有的数千个印刷量中。该数据之所以以这种形式出现，是因为1940年之前的主要机构抵押贷款贷款人是非银行，由州议会机构，例如建筑和贷款协会，互助储蓄银行和人寿保险公司。 这些机构的活动在州监管机构的年度报告中得到了充分记录，但是这些信息需要收集，数字化和组织为可靠且可广泛可用的数据集。 该项目的大部分资金都将支持拍摄和数字化州级报告；准备大量文档，以便可以轻松使用这些数据；并将机构资产负债表数据与邻里，城市和州一级有关住房市场，经济活动和广泛的人口统计信息的信息相结合。 数据收集和组装将需要三年的时间才能完成，并且该项目的协作结构是由其规模和复杂性驱动的。在独立使用联邦生成的县级数据来调查1930年代联邦政策干预中最大，最戏剧性的县级数据之后，该项目被吸引到该项目。贷款公司。 在1934年至1936年之间，全国十分之一的房屋占领房屋的造成的苦恼抵押贷款和共同案件的工作表明，这项活动缓解了1930年代的房屋所有权率和房价，但没有刺激新的房屋建设。在这些调查的过程中，共同案例确信可以了解更多有关Holc的信息？以及FHA保险，Fannie Mae折扣和FHLB的监督？如果可以使用机构级别的数据来补充他们已经在抵押贷款和住房市场上收集的县级数据。 因此，该项目的第二阶段将是使用组装的数据库进行的一系列共同和联合实现的经验研究。 卡门·雷恩哈特（Carmen Reinhart）和肯尼斯·罗戈夫（Kenneth Rogoff）（这段时间不同）最近表明，历史观点可以告知我们严重的经济危机并塑造我们对它们的反应。 相比之下，不幸的是，我们尚未仔细研究1930年代的抵押危机，也没有完全欣赏其来之不易的课程。 该项目的目的是促进该讨论，以便在我们努力穿越自己的抵押贷款危机和超越自己的抵押危机时，历史可以帮助。