Collaborative Research: The Great Depression, the New Deal, and the Origins of Modern State Government Fiscal Policies

合作研究：大萧条、新政和现代州政府财政政策的起源

• 批准号: 1357744
• 负责人: Price Fishback
• 金额: $ 35.56万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-03-15 至 2020-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1357744&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Great; Depression; New

The Great Recession of the 2000s has led to renewed debates about the appropriate responses of the national and state governments to economic crises and to long run trends. The debates and the government policies have their modern origins in the Great Depression and New Deal. The national and most state governments face continuing and future budgetary problems based on pension and health care promises that are currently underfunded. The 1930s offer the most relevant historical example to the current situation, as tax revenues at all levels dropped in the early 1930s, demands on state governments expanded, and the federal government provided a large amount of new funding to the states and established a host of policies. The states themselves began a fiscal revolution that expanded their capacity to generate revenue and the interactions between the national and state governments changed in ways that expanded the long run economic responsibilities of national and state governments in the economy. Thus, understanding how these policies were established in the 1930s can provide numerous insights into the modern policy issues. The Census Bureau stopped compiling state financial statistics during the years 1932 through 1936, leaving a gaping hole in a series that runs from 1915 to the present. This gap in the state fiscal data occurs precisely during the key years when modern state government policies were going through a fiscal revolution in response to the Depression and the New Deal. Our goal is to fill the gap by going directly to the reports of Treasurers and Auditors in each state to collect the financial data from 1930 through 1940. When the project is completed, we will have developed a panel data set that covers the period from 1915 through 1940 for the 48 contiguous states with information on total state revenues and expenditures, as well as with information on several revenue and expenditure categories. This panel will be matched up with a panel data set from 1919 through 1940 that contains information on state income per capita, farm activity, manufacturing activity, births, deaths, banking activity, federal spending in multiple categories, federal tax revenue in multiple categories, highway mileage built, construction in a variety of categories, weather, the political makeup of state legislatures and the governorship, and election results for congressional, presidential and gubernatorial elections.The broader impact of this proposal can be seen through the questions we will answer using this data. Some of the questions we plan to address are: Did the increased national government grants and loans encourage additional state spending and revenue or did the states respond by allowing the national spending to crowd out state spending and reduce tax collections? To what extent did the states introduce new types of taxes and new forms of expenditures in the 1920s and 1930s and what were the factors that led them to choose the specific forms? What was the impact of state deficits and surpluses on state economic activity after controlling for national spending?

2000 年代的大衰退引发了关于国家和州政府对经济危机和长期趋势的适当反应的新一轮辩论。 这些争论和政府政策的现代根源在于大萧条和新政。 由于目前资金不足的养老金和医疗保健承诺，国家和大多数州政府面临着持续和未来的预算问题。 1930年代是与当前形势最相关的历史例子，1930年代初各级税收收入下降，对州政府的要求扩大，联邦政府向各州提供了大量新资金，并建立了一系列政策。 各州本身开始了一场财政革命，扩大了其创收能力，国家和州政府之间的互动也发生了变化，扩大了国家和州政府在经济中的长期经济责任。 因此，了解这些政策是如何在 20 世纪 30 年代制定的，可以为现代政策问题提供许多见解。 人口普查局在 1932 年至 1936 年间停止了编制州财政统计数据，从而在 1915 年至今的一系列数据中留下了一个巨大的漏洞。 州财政数据的这种差距恰恰发生在现代州政府政策因应对大萧条和新政而经历财政革命的关键年份。 我们的目标是通过直接访问每个州的财务主管和审计师的报告来收集 1930 年至 1940 年的财务数据来填补这一空白。项目完成后，我们将开发出涵盖 1915 年期间的面板数据集到 1940 年，为 48 个毗邻国家提供有关国家总收入和支出的信息，以及有关若干收入和支出类别的信息。 该面板将与 1919 年至 1940 年的面板数据集相匹配，该数据集包含有关州人均收入、农业活动、制造业活动、出生、死亡、银行活动、多个类别的联邦支出、多个类别的联邦税收收入的信息，高速公路里程、各种类别的建设、天气、州立法机构和州长的政治构成，以及国会、总统和州长选举的选举结果。该提案的更广泛影响可以通过我们将使用这些数据回答问题。我们计划解决的一些问题是：国​​家政府拨款和贷款的增加是否鼓励了额外的国家支出和收入，或者各州是否通过允许国家支出挤出国家支出并减少税收来做出回应？ 1920年代和1930年代，各国在多大程度上引入了新的税种和新的支出形式？是什么因素导致他们选择了具体的形式？ 在控制国民支出后，国家赤字和盈余对国家经济活动有何影响？