Collaborative Research: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Modeling Multiple Stakeholder Decision-Making to Reduce Regional Natural Disaster Risk

协作研究：采用跨学科方法对多个利益相关者决策进行建模以减少区域自然灾害风险

• 批准号: 1435298
• 负责人: Rachel Davidson
• 金额: $ 30.66万
• 依托单位: University of Delaware
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2018-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1435298&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Interdisciplinary; Approach; Modeling

Natural disasters create enormous costs for the United States. Despite many private sector and public policy efforts over decades, the current system of managing natural disaster risk is not working well for the government, the insurance industry, or homeowners. Previous research has resulted in extensive knowledge about how individuals and organizations make risk-related decisions, the strategic behavior of individual insurers and the insurance market as a whole, as well as natural disaster risk itself and ways to physically reduce it. Nevertheless, efforts to understand how the choices of the different participating groups or stakeholders interact as a "system" have been limited. The proposed project will result in a new framework of interacting mathematical models that can be used to better understand, design, and evaluate government natural disaster risk management policies, such as providing funds to help homeowners strengthen their homes, requiring homeowners to buy natural disaster insurance, or offering to buy high-risk homes. By supporting improved design and evaluation of public policies, the project will help the country better manage its risk. By considering the individual, sometimes competing stakeholder points-of-view up front, as an integral part of the analysis, the new framework will make it easier to identify those win-win system-wide solutions that are most likely to be put into action and to be effective. The framework is designed to be consistent with the "whole community" approach promoted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which encourages involving all parts of the community in helping to address the challenge. Engaging representatives of the relevant government agencies and insurance and home building industries as partners at the beginning of the project will help ensure that the research offers usable results that can be put into practice as quickly and effectively as possible. Graduate and undergraduate research assistants, including women and underrepresented minorities, will participate in the research, and the researchers will incorporate the results into their courses and new Ph.D. programs at their universities. The project will result in a leap forward in understanding the overall behavior of the natural disaster risk management system in the U.S., thus helping provide the knowledge needed to improve it.To achieve these benefits, this project will develop a new framework that will include five interacting mathematical models of (1) government decisions about what regulations to introduce and/or incentives to offer,(2) insurer decisions about what to charge for insurance policies and what reinsurance to buy, (3) competition among insurers, (4) individual homeowner decisions about whether to buy insurance and/or strengthen their homes, and (5) regional natural disaster losses. The project will make use of an existing first version of the framework that includes interacting insurer-homeowner and loss models but, will improve on that effort substantially through five tasks: (1) identifying categories of homeowner decision types and a homeowner decision model that is based on data describing how homeowners actually make these decisions in real life, (2) extending the framework to include the way decisions and information change over time, (3) including situations in which the stakeholders do not have perfect or the same information, (4) developing and incorporating a model of government decisions, and (5) demonstrating the framework in a full-scale case study applied to residential hurricane risk in North Carolina.

自然灾害为美国创造了巨大的成本。尽管几十年来，尽管有许多私营部门和公共政策努力，但当前管理自然灾害风险的系统对政府，保险业或房主来说并不是很好。先前的研究已经对个人和组织如何做出与风险相关的决策，个人保险公司的战略行为以及整个保险市场以及自然灾害风险本身以及物理减少的方式进行了广泛的了解。然而，了解不同参与群体或利益相关者的选择如何作为“系统”互动的努力受到限制。拟议的项目将导致一个新的框架进行交互数学模型，该模型可用于更好地理解，设计和评估政府自然灾害风险管理政策，例如提供资金来帮助房主加强房屋，要求房主购买自然灾害保险或愿意购买高风险房屋。通过支持改进的公共政策设计和评估，该项目将帮助该国更好地管理其风险。通过将个人有时是竞争的利益相关者视为分析的组成部分，新框架将使确定那些最有可能采取行动的双赢解决方案变得更加容易并有效。该框架的目的是与联邦紧急事务管理局（FEMA）提起的“整个社区”方法一致，该方法鼓励让社区的各个部位帮助应对挑战。在项目开始时，参与相关政府机构，保险和房屋建筑行业的代表将有助于确保研究提供可用的结果，可以尽快有效地实施。研究生和本科研究助理，包括妇女和代表性不足的少数民族，将参与研究，研究人员将将结果纳入其课程和新博士学位。他们的大学课程。该项目将在了解美国自然灾害风险管理系统的整体行为方面取得飞跃，从而帮助提供改善其所需的知识。为了实现这些好处，该项目将开发一个新框架，其中将包括五个（1）政府关于介绍哪些法规和/或激励措施的数学模型的互动数学模型，（2）保险公司对保险单的收费以及购买什么再保险的决定，（3）保险公司之间的竞争，（4）个人房主关于是否购买保险和/或加强房屋的决定，以及（5）区域自然灾害损失。该项目将利用现有的框架的第一版，其中包括交互的保险公司房主和损失模型，但是，通过五个任务将大大改善这项工作：（1）确定房主决策类型的类别和房主决策模型，基于描述房主如何在现实生活中实际做出这些决定的数据，（2）将框架扩展到包括随时间变化的方式和信息的方式，（3）包括利益相关者没有完美或相同信息的情况，（（ 4）制定和纳入政府决策模型，以及（5）在适用于北卡罗来纳州住宅飓风风险的全面案例研究中证明框架的。