Hazards SEES Type 2: Dynamic Integration of Natural, Human, and Infrastructure Systems for Hurricane Evacuation and Sheltering

灾害 SEES 类型 2：飓风疏散和庇护的自然、人类和基础设施系统的动态整合

• 批准号: 1331269
• 负责人: Rachel Davidson
• 金额: $ 299.41万
• 依托单位: University of Delaware
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-09-01 至 2019-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1331269&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Hazards; SEES; Type; Dynamic; Integration

This project will improve understanding of and decision support for hurricane evacuation and sheltering through a dynamic modeling approach. The hazard will be represented using a set of probabilistic scenarios that describe the range of ways a hurricane may evolve. For each hurricane scenario, storm surge, wind speed, and rainfall flooding maps will be developed for each time step. The research team will also model the dynamic decision-making of emergency managers and residents as the available information changes, and the dynamic movement of residents over the course of the event. Overlaying the results of these models will help to understand the interactions within and among the systems through space and time. The project has four main components. First, an integrated meteorological, hydrological, and storm surge modeling system that will be implemented to determine a set of probabilistic ensemble scenarios for an offshore hurricane. Second, theoretical models of resident and emergency manager temporal decision-making will be developed. Third, a multi-stage stochastic program will be developed that integrates the outputs from the first two steps to support emergency managers' hurricane evacuation and sheltering decisions so as to minimize personal risk and travel time. Fourth, the interconnected hazard, behavioral, and evacuation/shelter models will be demonstrated through case study applications in North Carolina. This project will have broad significance because it will result in a major leap forward in understanding and improving management of evacuation and sheltering for hurricane events. Wind, storm surge, waves, rainfall, and runoff, all of which can substantially affect evacuations, will be considered simultaneously and comprehensively in this project. The project will also advance understanding of how officials and residents make decisions over time, and how the information on which their decisions change over time. It will explicitly represent the fact that emergency managers make initial decisions while a hurricane is still far offshore and large uncertainty remains, and then make subsequent decisions after a day or two has passed and more is known about the likely effects of the storm. Overall, the framework for this project will, for the first time, fully capture the three features of hurricane events that are perhaps most important for understanding evacuation and sheltering; these features are: (1)the events are dynamic over space and time, (2) involve great uncertainty, and (3) include many interactions within and among the natural, infrastructure, and human systems.The educational video game and K-8 educational outreach will teach participants about the dynamics and uncertainty in hurricane evacuation and sheltering. Post-doctoral researchers, graduate and undergraduate research assistants including women and underrepresented minorities' participation in all aspects of the project will help train the next generation of disaster professionals. Collaboration with federal and state agencies throughout the project will help ensure the findings consider practitioner's perspectives and are integrated into practice as quickly and effectively as possible.

该项目将通过动态建模方法提高对飓风疏散和避难的理解和决策支持。将使用一组描述飓风可能演变方式的概率场景来表示危险。对于每种飓风情景，将为每个时间步长绘制风暴潮、风速和降雨洪水地图。研究团队还将对应急管理人员和居民在可用信息变化时的动态决策以及居民在事件过程中的动态移动进行建模。叠加这些模型的结果将有助于理解系统内部和系统之间在空间和时间上的相互作用。该项目有四个主要组成部分。首先，将实施一个综合气象、水文和风暴潮建模系统，以确定一组近海飓风的概率集合情景。其次，将开发居民和应急管理人员时间决策的理论模型。第三，将开发一个多阶段随机计划，整合前两个步骤的输出，以支持应急管理人员的飓风疏散和避难决策，从而最大限度地减少个人风险和旅行时间。第四，相互关联的危险、行为和疏散/避难模型将通过北卡罗来纳州的案例研究应用进行演示。该项目将具有广泛的意义，因为它将在理解和改进飓风事件疏散和避难管理方面带来重大飞跃。本项目将同时综合考虑对疏散产生重大影响的风、风暴潮、波浪、降雨和径流。该项目还将加深对官员和居民如何随着时间的推移做出决策，以及他们的决策所依据的信息如何随着时间的推移而变化的了解。它将明确地表明这样一个事实：应急管理人员在飓风仍在离岸很远且仍然存在很大不确定性的情况下做出初步决策，然后在一两天过去并且对风暴可能的影响有了更多了解后做出后续决策。总体而言，该项目的框架将首次充分捕捉飓风事件的三个​​特征，这对于理解疏散和避难可能是最重要的；这些特征是：(1) 事件在空间和时间上是动态的，(2) 涉及很大的不确定性，(3) 包括自然、基础设施和人类系统内部和之间的许多相互作用。教育视频游戏和 K-8教育外展将让参与者了解飓风疏散和避难的动态和不确定性。博士后研究人员、研究生和本科生研究助理（包括女性和代表性不足的少数族裔）参与该项目的各个方面将有助于培训下一代灾害专业人员。在整个项目中与联邦和州机构的合作将有助于确保研究结果考虑从业者的观点，并尽快有效地融入实践。