Hazards SEES Type 2: Magnitude 9 Earthquake Scenarios - Probabilistic Modeling, Warnings, Response and Resilience in the Pacific Northwest

灾害 SEES 2 类：9 级地震情景 - 太平洋西北地区的概率建模、警告、响应和复原力

• 批准号: 1331412
• 负责人: Alison Duvall
• 金额: $ 293.75万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-09-15 至 2019-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1331412&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Hazards; SEES; Type; Magnitude; Earthquake; Hazards; SEES; Type; Magnitude; Earthquake

A Cascadia earthquake of magnitude 9 (M9) would cause shaking, liquefaction, landslides and tsunamis from British Columbia to northern California. The resulting losses, projected in the tens of billions of dollars, would include damaged buildings, bridges and lifelines, as well as thousands of human casualties. This project addresses scientific and engineering challenges in reducing this risk. The challenges start with assessing the range of distributions of fault motion and, therefore, the shaking and tsunamis that the Cascadia fault might generate. The project addresses factors not previously considered ? the distribution and timing of energy release on the fault, the coherent variation of frequency content of fault motion with fault depth, and the 3D effects of the deep basins along Puget Sound - and will specify the uncertainty in the estimated motions, which is critical to probabilistic estimation of earthquake impact, including liquefaction, landslides, tsunamis and built infrastructure response. The project will develop new probabilistic, statistical, and numerical methodologies to provide deeper insight into these phenomena. This research will improve forecasting of landslides and liquefaction through better resolution of the underlying physics with recent data from Japan and Chile. The project will also improve estimation of tsunami effects by developing more realistic scenarios of seafloor deformation and by estimating the battering power of entrained debris. Built-environment response to the unique long-period and long-duration ground motions will be evaluated probabilistically using advanced numerical simulation. To inform the development and deployment of earthquake early warning in the U.S., the project includes interview and survey research on the potential effects of messages that provide just a few seconds or minutes of warning. With local communities and agency partners, the project will improve the utility of probabilistic information by comparing how stakeholders interpret (a) single "worst case" hazard scenarios and (b) multiple probabilistic scenarios, and how each type of scenario is then incorporated into community emergency preparedness and long-range planning. The project will also advance the integration of probabilistic assessments into hazards education.The last decade has provided unexpected lessons in the enormous risks from giant subduction earthquakes of M9. Sumatra 2004, Chile 2010, and Japan 2011 each caused devastation that took scientists and residents by surprise. M9 earthquakes in the Cascadia subduction zone pose the greatest natural hazard in the Pacific Northwest and provide an integrative focus for interdisciplinary research on reducing future losses to extreme events. To address challenges in risk reduction, this project brings together experts from academia, government, and other nonprofit organizations. The shared vision is to reduce the catastrophic risk of a Cascadia M9 earthquake through integrated advances in forecasting, warning and adaptive planning across the social, built and natural environments. The project will move beyond generalized scenarios toward probabilistic predictions of M9 seismic events and the subsequent hazards, with the objective of integrating these into community resilience planning and advancing the state of earthquake early warning systems.

从不列颠哥伦比亚省到北加利福尼亚州的9级（M9）的卡斯卡迪亚地震9（M9）将导致摇晃，液化，滑坡和海啸。预计将造成的损失将包括数万美元，包括损坏的建筑物，桥梁和救生线以及成千上万的人伤亡。该项目应对降低这种风险的科学和工程挑战。挑战始于评估故障运动的分布范围，因此，Cascadia断层可能会产生的颤抖和海啸。该项目解决了以前未考虑的因素？能量释放在断层上的分布和时机，故障运动与故障深度的频率含量的连贯变化以及深层沿Puget声音的3D效应 - 并将指定估计动作的不确定性，这对于地震估计的概率估计至关重要，包括地震估计，包括液化，房地产，tsunamis，tsunamis and Infrastraster and Infrastraster and Infrastrasure and tsunslides ands and Infrastraster。该项目将开发新的概率，统计和数值方法，以更深入地了解这些现象。这项研究将通过从日本和智利的最新数据更好地解决基础物理学，从而改善对滑坡和液化的预测。该项目还将通过开发更现实的海底变形场景，并估计被夹带碎片的击球能力来改善海啸效应的估计。对独特的长期和长期接地运动的内在环境响应将使用高级数值模拟进行概率评估。为了告知美国地震预警的开发和部署，该项目包括有关信息的潜在影响的访谈和调查研究，这些信息仅提供几秒钟或几分钟的警告。在当地社区和代理合作伙伴的情况下，该项目将通过比较利益相关者如何解释（a）单一“最坏情况”危害场景以及（b）多种概率场景以及如何将每种类型的场景纳入社区紧急准备和长期计划中，将改善概率信息的实用性。该项目还将将概率评估的整合到危害教育中。最近十年为M9巨型俯冲地震带来了巨大风险的意外课程。 Sumatra 2004，智利2010年和日本2011年各自造成了破坏，使科学家和居民感到惊讶。卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带的M9地震构成了太平洋西北地区最大的自然危害，并为减少极端事件的未来损失提供了跨学科研究的综合重点。为了应对降低风险的挑战，该项目汇集了学术界，政府和其他非营利组织的专家。共同的愿景是通过在整个社会，建筑和自然环境中的预测，警告和适应性计划方面的综合进步来减少卡斯卡迪亚M9地震的灾难性风险。该项目将超越通用的场景，朝着M9地震事件和随后的危害的概率预测，目的是将其整合到社区弹性计划中，并推进地震早期警告系统。