Hazards SEES Type 2: Preventing Flood Hazards from Becoming Disasters through Two-Way Communication of Parcel-Level Flood Risk

灾害 SEES 类型 2：通过地块级洪水风险的双向沟通​​，防止洪水灾害演变成灾难

• 批准号: 1331611
• 负责人: Brett Sanders
• 金额: $ 281.94万
• 依托单位: University of California-Irvine
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-09-15 至 2019-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1331611&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Hazards; SEES; Type; Preventing; Flood

This project seeks to understand what factors and conditions allow parcel-level prediction of urban flooding to catalyze behavioral change in flood vulnerable communities. It is hypothesized that a parcel-level flood prediction model, coupled with transformative communication strategies, is a more powerful tool for people to understand vulnerability, visualize flood risk, and plan for future hazards than coarse-level modeling conveyed via a singular disaster narrative. To test this hypothesis, this project focuses on the two largest estuarine systems in Southern California, a region where the damages from a major flood are expected to be greater than from a major earthquake of the same probability, and one to which national sea level rise studies point as being among the most likely to experience increased flooding. The project convenes an interdisciplinary team of researchers and a broad range of stakeholders and partners to understand the type of flood risk information that is needed to catalyze behavioral change, investigate and test communication strategies, identify interventions that can be implemented to build community resilience and mitigate expected flood losses, and model how these interventions would affect the flood hazard and its expected impacts. For decades scientists have tried to characterize what they know about climate change and translate it into actionable information. By most metrics, this effort has failed. Emissions continue to increase, climate change impacts are tracking worst-case scenarios, and skepticism about climate change is at an all time high. The poor response to climate change science is consonant with research that shows that top down communication of information that is often abstract and outside the immediate experience of the audience tends to have very little impact on behavior. This project fosters innovative interdisciplinary science that builds a broad knowledge base for flood resilience, articulates a strategy for more effectively translating climate science into actionable information to catalyze behavioral change, and advances understanding of whether, and to what extent, parcel-level flood data can contribute to more flood resilient communities. Specifically, this project also: 1) trains hazard practitioners through collaborative workshops designed to transfer knowledge, facilitate two-way communication, and evaluate resilience options; 2) informs local climate action planning through targeted recommendations for infrastructure adaptation, emergency preparedness and response, and policy; 3) delivers lessons learned to national and global climate action planners and interdisciplinary hazards researchers; 4) trains emerging hazards scholars through a specialized undergraduate and graduate education program; 5) develops and delivers high school teacher training on flood education and 6) provides bilingual education for adults in vulnerable communities; 7) creates a project website to communicate research and disseminate education materials to external audiences; and 8) informs national security by encouraging the model's application to other flood-vulnerable locales within the national security and development assistance purview.

该项目试图了解哪些因素和条件允许包裹级的城市洪水预测，以催化洪水脆弱社区的行为改变。可以假设，与通过奇异的灾难叙事传达的粗糙级别建模相比，与通过奇异的灾难叙事传达的粗层建模相比，人们可以理解脆弱性，可视化洪水风险以及为未来危害的计划更强大的工具，是一个更强大的工具。为了检验这一假设，该项目的重点是南加州的两个最大的河口系统，该地区预计大洪水的损害将大于相同概率的主要地震，而国家海平面上升研究指出，最有可能遭受洪水量增加的地区。该项目召集了一个研究人员的跨学科团队以及广泛的利益相关者和合作伙伴，以了解促进行为改变，调查和测试交流策略所需的洪水风险信息类型，确定可以实施的干预措施，以建立社区的回弹和减轻预期的洪水洪水措施，以及如何影响洪水危险危害危险危害和预期影响。几十年来，科学家一直试图表征他们对气候变化的了解，并将其转化为可行的信息。根据大多数指标，这项工作失败了。排放量继续增加，气候变化的影响正在跟踪最坏的情况，并且对气候变化的怀疑态度一直很高。对气候变化科学的反应不佳与研究表明，通常是抽象的信息的自上而下的信息，并且在听众的直接体验之外，对行为的影响很小。该项目促进了创新的跨学科科学，该科学为洪水弹性建立了广泛的知识基础，阐明了一种策略，以更有效地将气候科学转化为可行的信息以催化行为改变，并促进对包裹层洪水数据是否有助于更多的洪水泛滥的社区有助于包裹层的洪水数据。具体而言，该项目还：1）通过旨在转移知识，促进双向交流并评估弹性选择的协作研讨会来培训危险从业者； 2）通过针对基础设施适应，应急准备和响应以及政策的有针对性的建议将当地气候行动计划告知当地的气候行动计划； 3）向国家和全球气候行动计划者和跨学科危害研究人员提供教训； 4）通过专业的本科和研究生教育计划来训练新兴危害学者； 5）发展并提供有关洪水教育的高中教师培训，6）为弱势社区的成年人提供双语教育； 7）创建一个项目网站，以向外部受众传播研究并将教育材料传播； 8）通过鼓励该模型在国家安全和发展援助范围内的其他可洪水范围内的地区的应用来通知国家安全。