Dynamics and Perceptions of Ultrahazardous Flooding across the Wildland Urban Interface

荒地城市界面超危险洪水的动态和感知

• 批准号: 2031535
• 负责人: Brett Sanders
• 金额: $ 67万
• 依托单位: University of California-Irvine
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-08-01 至 2024-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2031535&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Dynamics; Perceptions; Ultrahazardous; Flooding; across

This project explores post-wildfire flooding risks facing communities and neighborhoods that have developed at the base and long the slopes of mountains in the western United States. These kinds of developments have and continue to expand throughout the southwestern and western United States as urban and suburban areas move into wildland areas. Post-wildfire flooding can be ultrahazardous due to its rapid-onset, high-velocity, and erosive potential, leading to debris-laden flows with unpredictable paths. This project will advance understanding of these flood risks, and opportunities for increased flood resilience, considering three interwoven elements: environmental hazards (wildfire, mud/debris, and flooding), the built environment (stormwater infrastructure), and human populations. Working with environmental and socio-economic data from across Riverside County, California – part of the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region– innovative models that integrate the effects of fire, debris basins, and flood control channels on flood and debris hazards will be co-developed with community partners and applied to estimate how exposure varies spatially and over time. Hazard estimates will be combined with household survey data capturing hazard awareness, perceptions, and preparedness to characterize variations in risks and risk perception across the area’s diverse socioeconomic population. This research supports NSF's mission to promote the progress of science and to advance our national welfare by generating both tools and insights to improve flood risk awareness and preparedness, which will save lives, reduce economic losses in future events, and enhance community resilience.Climate change and urban expansion are leading to an escalation of flood and debris risks. Global warming is resulting in more intense and frequent wildfire during Summer and Fall and more intense precipitation in Winter and Spring. Furthermore, awareness and preparedness for flooding is hypothesized to be especially low among residents, particularly because the arid southwest is known for “unpredictable flow path flooding” that occurs after flood controls system are clogged with debris and/or overtopped. This project will advance an innovative stochastic modeling framework for estimating present and future flood and debris hazards facing development – a systematic approach for capturing the uncertainty in rainfall patterns, wildfires, the performance of flood control infrastructure, and climate change. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of hazards will be mapped using fine-resolution flood hazard models and intersected with socioeconomic data and indicators of vulnerability drawn from a household survey of flood awareness and preparedness, yielding important new insights into risks and risk perceptions. Finally, the research team will partner with public works and emergency management personnel from local and state government to co-develop data products and tools for flood risk management, and to make these tools widely available for post-wildfire flood risk management. Publications, software, and data derivatives generated during this project will be made available on the project website, GitHub and public data repositories.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目探讨了野火后的洪灾风险，这些风险面临着在美国西部山区的基地和长期发展的社区和社区。随着城市和郊区进入荒野地区，这类发展已经并继续在整个美国西南部和西部扩展。野火后洪水由于其快速发作，高速和侵蚀潜力而导致超态性，导致带有无法预测的路径的碎屑流。考虑到三个交织的元素：环境危害（野火，泥浆/碎片和洪水），建筑环境（雨水基础设施）和人类人口，该项目将提高人们了解这些洪水风险，增加洪水弹性的机会。与来自加利福尼亚河滨县的环境和社会经济数据（洛杉矶大都会地区的一部分 - 创新的模型，这些模型都集成了火灾，碎屑贝斯和防洪渠道对洪水和调试危害的效果，将与社区伴侣共同开发，并应用如何估算曝光方式和超时时间。危害估计将与家庭调查数据相结合，以捕获危害意识，看法和准备，以表征整个地区多元化的社会经济人口中风险和风险感知的变化。这项研究支持NSF促进科学进步的使命，并通过产生工具和见解来提高洪水风险意识和准备，从而挽救生命，减少未来事件的经济损失，并提高社区的韧性。气候变化和城市扩张会导致洪水和碎布风险的升级。在夏季和秋季，全球变暖会导致更激烈和经常野火，冬季和春季的降水量更高。此外，假设居民的意识和准备性尤其低，尤其是因为西南干旱的西南以“不可预测的流动路径洪水”而闻名，这在洪水控制系统被调试和/或超过后发生后发生。该项目将推进一个创新的随机建模框架，用于估算当前和未来的洪水，并调试面临开发的危害 - 一种系统的方法，用于捕捉降雨模式，野火，洪水控制基础设施的性能以及气候变化的不确定性。此外，危险的空间分布将使用精美的洪水危害模型进行映射，并与社会经济数据和脆弱性指标相交，这些脆弱性是根据家庭对洪水意识和准备性的调查所吸引的，从而对风险和风险看法产生了重要的新见解。最后，研究团队将与来自地方和州政府的公共工程和应急管理人员合作，共同开发数据产品和洪水风险管理工具，并将这些工具广泛用于后火灾后洪水风险管理。该项目期间生成的出版物，软件和数据衍生品将在项目网站，GitHub和公共数据存储库中提供。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过使用该基金会的知识分子和更广泛的影响评估标准来评估NSF的法定任务。

项目成果

Large and inequitable flood risks in Los Angeles, California

加利福尼亚州洛杉矶存在巨大且不公平的洪水风险

• DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00977-7
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Nature Sustainability
• 影响因子: 27.6
• 作者: Sanders, Brett F.;Schubert, Jochen E.;Kahl, Daniel T.;Mach, Katharine J.;Brady, David;AghaKouchak, Amir;Forman, Fonna;Matthew, Richard A.;Ulibarri, Nicola;Davis, Steven J.
• 通讯作者: Davis, Steven J.

Compound Post‐Fire Flood Hazards Considering Infrastructure Sedimentation

• DOI: 10.1029/2022ef002670
• 发表时间: 2022-07
• 期刊: Earth's Future
• 作者: Ariane Jong‐Levinger;T. Banerjee;Douglas Houston;B. Sanders

Grid edge classification method to enhance levee resolution in dual-grid flood inundation models

双网格洪水淹没模型中增强堤坝分辨率的网格边缘分类方法

• DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2022.104287
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Advances in Water Resources
• 影响因子: 4.7
• 作者: Kahl, Daniel T.;Schubert, Jochen E.;Jong-Levinger, Ariane;Sanders, Brett F.
• 通讯作者: Sanders, Brett F.