Collaborative Research: Tying deep-seated landslides to base level, earthquakes, and a changing climate in the Pacific Northwest

合作研究：将深层滑坡与太平洋西北地区的基准面、地震和气候变化联系起来

基本信息

批准号：
1953710
负责人：
Alison Duvall
金额：
$ 25.77万
依托单位：
University of Washington
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2020-09-15 至 2023-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1953710&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Tying deep seated

项目摘要

Thousands of prehistoric landslide deposits are found throughout the heavily populated Puget Sound region in Washington State, where the SR530 “Oso” Landslide killed 43 people in 2014. The region also experiences other hazards, such as earthquakes and heavy winter rain storms, that likely triggered many of those prehistoric landslides. This project will comprehensively map and estimate the ages of past landslides to determine which ones were likely triggered by independently known earthquakes and climatic events, thereby improving hazard estimates for future events. Coordination with state agencies responsible for creating landslide hazard maps in the Pacific Northwest is planned to ensure broad dissemination of project results. An important focus will be connecting landslides that may have been triggered by a prehistoric earthquake on the Seattle Fault to physics-based computer simulations of ground shaking caused by that earthquake.The project will test long-standing conceptual models for when and where landslides occur within the landscape in response to three main forcing mechanisms: earthquakes, climate, and base level. The main technical goal is to quantify the pattern of landslides in space and time and evaluate that pattern against independent records of forcing mechanisms. To date the thousands of landslides required to accomplish this goal, the researchers will define an empirical model for landslide age that can be efficiently measured remotely with airborne lidar data and constrained by known ages of benchmark landslides. Simulated ground motions from a suite of modeled Seattle Fault earthquake scenarios will be compared to landslides likely triggered by its most recent prehistoric rupture to inform future hazard estimates and constrain rupture parameters. The novel combination of remote sensing-based landslide dating and 3D earthquake simulations will advance scientific understanding of how landscapes evolve and generate hazards.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在华盛顿州人口稠密的普吉特海湾地区发现了成千上万的史前滑坡沉积物，2014年，SR530“ OSO”滑坡造成43人丧生。该地区还遭受了其他危害，例如地震和严重的冬季暴风雨，这可能触发了许多史前历史史地。该项目将全面绘制和估计过去滑坡的年龄，以确定哪些可能是由独立已知的地震和杂物事件触发的，从而改善了对未来事件的危害估计。计划与负责在太平洋西北部创建滑坡危险地图的州机构的协调，以确保广泛传播项目结果。一个重要的重点将是连接西雅图断层史前地震可能引起的山体滑坡，以与该地震引起的基于物理学的计算机模拟地面震动的计算机模拟。该项目将测试长期存在的概念模型，以响应三种主要强迫机制，响应三种主要的强迫机制，气候，气候和基础。主要技术目标是量化时空中滑坡的模式，并根据强迫机制的独立记录评估该模式。迄今为止，要实现这一目标所需的数千个滑坡，研究人员将定义一个滑坡年龄的经验模型，该模型可以通过机载激光雷达数据有效地测量，并受到基准滑坡的已知年龄的约束。将一组模型的西雅图断层地震场景中的模拟地面运动与可能触发的滑坡相比，其最新的史前破裂引发，以告知未来的危害估计并约束破裂参数。基于遥感的滑坡约会和3D地震模拟的新型组合将提高对景观如何发展和产生危害的科学理解。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响来评估来评估的珍贵支持。