CRISP Type 2/Collaborative Research: Defining and Optimizing Societal Objectives for the Earthquake Risk Management of Critical Infrastructure

CRISP 类型 2/合作研究：定义和优化关键基础设施地震风险管理的社会目标

• 批准号: 1735483
• 负责人: Rachel Davidson
• 金额: $ 104.15万
• 依托单位: University of Delaware
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-09-01 至 2023-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1735483&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CRISP; Type; Collaborative; Research; Defining

Critical infrastructure systems, such as electric power and water supply, are vital to the economy, national security, and public health, and therefore must be designed, managed, and operated so they function reliably and efficiently even in the case of an extreme event. Nevertheless, the way infrastructure system services meet societal needs and the way disruptions of those services impair the ability to meet societal needs are not well understood. That is, a lot remains unknown about the relationship between the percentage of customers receiving water or power from a utility, and the ability of businesses to operate; emergency services to perform their duties; households to get to work and school; individuals to eat, drink, and bathe. In this project, we will define the societal objectives for infrastructure system performance in earthquakes and develop a method to comprehensively optimize a broad range of risk management strategies to meet them. The method will provide a scientific basis to help infrastructure managers and policymakers in such crucial functions as emergency planning, retrofit planning, and drafting design codes. To accomplish these goals, this interdisciplinary project explicitly recognizes that infrastructure systems include not only physical objects, but also the uses, preferences, capabilities, and decisions of infrastructure operators and users. It also considers the adaptive strategies employed by operators and users in the event of a disaster that interrupts service (e.g., delaying demand, or supplementing supply with bottled water or a generator). We will improve academia-industry partnerships by engaging with our practitioner partners at the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power on a full-scale case study for electricity and water in Los Angeles, and with other agencies through a sequence of expert interviews. The project will help broaden participation in disaster research and practice by providing summer internships for the underrepresented scholars who are William A. Anderson Fund Graduate Fellows. Post-docs and graduate and undergraduate research assistants will participate in all aspects of the project. Specific project tasks include: (1) Developing a probabilistic scenario-based model of the risk of multiple infrastructure systems to earthquakes with the ability to evaluate alternative risk management strategies; (2) Integrating the complementary strengths of social media, household surveys, and economic impact analyses to empirically assess societal objectives, users? adaptive strategies in responding to disruptions, and the relationships between them and traditional measures of system functioning; (3) Developing an optimization model to optimize risk management to meet societal objectives; and (4) Demonstrating models through a full-scale case study for electric power and water. The new knowledge will provide the scientific basis to support more effective and efficient risk reduction by optimizing for the true societal objectives and over a broad range of strategies, including component design, upgrading, and repair and restoration planning. Defining societal objectives will help strengthen the business case for any required interventions.

关键的基础设施系统，例如电力和供水，对经济，国家安全和公共卫生至关重要，因此必须设计，管理和运营，以便即使在极端事件的情况下它们也可以可靠，有效地发挥作用。然而，基础设施系统服务满足社会需求的方式，这些服务的破坏损害了满足社会需求的能力。也就是说，关于从公用事业公司接收水或电力的客户的百分比与企业运营能力之间的关系的关系尚不清楚。紧急服务以履行职责；上班和上学的家庭；个人吃饭，喝酒和洗澡。在这个项目中，我们将定义地震中基础设施系统绩效的社会目标，并开发一种方法来全面优化各种风险管理策略以满足它们。该方法将提供科学依据，以帮助基础设施经理和政策制定者扮演紧急计划，改造计划和起草设计代码等关键功能。为了实现这些目标，这个跨学科项目明确认识到基础架构系统不仅包括物理对象，还包括基础架构操作员和用户的用途，偏好，功能和决策。它还考虑了操作员和用户在中断服务的灾难时采用的自适应策略（例如，延迟需求或用瓶装水或发电机补充供应）。我们将通过一系列专家访谈的顺序与洛杉矶水与电力部的从业人员合作，通过一系列专家访谈，与其他机构进行全面的案例研究，通过与洛杉矶水和水的全面案例研究与我们的从业人员合作进行全面的案例研究，以改善学术界的合作伙伴关系。该项目将通过为威廉·A·安德森基金会的研究生研究员提供代表性不足的学者提供暑期实习来帮助扩大灾难研究和实践的参与。博士学位以及研究生和本科研究助理将参与该项目的各个方面。 特定的项目任务包括：（1）开发一种基于概率的情景模型，该模型将多个基础架构系统的风险转化为地震，并能够评估替代风险管理策略； （2）整合社交媒体，家庭调查和经济影响分析的互补优势，以通过经验评估社会目标，用户？反应中断的自适应策略，以及它们之间的关系与系统功能的传统措施； （3）开发优化模型以优化风险管理以实现社会目标； （4）通过全面的电力和水案例研究来展示模型。新知识将通过优化真正的社会目标和各种策略，包括组件设计，升级以及维修和恢复计划，来提供科学依据，以支持更有效和有效的风险降低。定义社会目标将有助于加强任何必需干预措施的业务案例。

项目成果

Searching for signal and borrowing wi-fi: Understanding disaster-related adaptations to telecommunications disruptions through social media

搜索信号并借用 Wi-Fi：通过社交媒体了解与灾害相关的电信中断适应措施

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103548
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Van Wyk, Hannah;Cruz-Antonio, Osiris;Quintero-Perez, Diana;Garcia, Sayra Damian;Davidson, Rachel;Kendra, James;Starbird, Kate
• 通讯作者: Starbird, Kate

Household Adaptations to and Impacts from Electric Power and Water Outages in the Texas 2021 Winter Storm

家庭对 2021 年德克萨斯州冬季风暴停电和停水的适应和影响

• DOI: 10.1061/nhrefo.nheng-1742
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Natural Hazards Review
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Soleimani, Nafiseh;Davidson, Rachel A.;Kendra, James;Ewing, Bradley;Nozick, Linda K.
• 通讯作者: Nozick, Linda K.

Investment planning for earthquake-resilient electric power systems considering cascading outages

• DOI: 10.1177/87552930221076870
• 发表时间: 2022-02
• 期刊: Earthquake Spectra
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Boyu Cheng;L. Nozick;I. Dobson

Household Adaptations to Infrastructure System Service Interruptions

• DOI: 10.1061/(asce)is.1943-555x.0000715
• 发表时间: 2022-12
• 期刊: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
• 影响因子: 3.3
• 作者: Abderrahmane Abbou;R. Davidson;James M. Kendra;V. Nuno Martins;Brad R. Ewing;L. Nozick;Z. Cox;Maggie Leon-Corwin

Dynamics of Power Prices and Water Production in Los Angeles: Implications for Earthquake Resilience and Recovery

洛杉矶的电价和水生产动态：对地震恢复和恢复的影响

• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: The Empirical economics letters
• 作者: Ewing, B. T.