RAPID: Post-Earthquake Fires in the March 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

RAPID：2011 年 3 月日本地震和海啸中的震后火灾

• 批准号: 1138675
• 负责人: Rachel Davidson
• 金额: $ 4万
• 依托单位: University of Delaware
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-08-01 至 2013-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1138675&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Post; Earthquake; Fires; March

This Grant for Rapid Response Research (RAPID) award provides funds to study the fire-related aspects of the March 2011 Japan earthquake with the aims to improve understanding of where, when, and how fires ignite; how fires spread through a neighborhood; and how they ignite and are suppressed in industrial facilities. The Tôhoku earthquake and tsunami caused 345 fires more recorded fires than any other earthquake in history. By comparison, there were about 110 recorded in Kobe (1995), 110 in Northridge (1994), 128 in San Fernando (1971), and 36 in Loma Prieta (1989). This project will involve three main steps: (1) collecting data on the fire-related aspects of the event through site visits, interviews with key informants, and secondary data sources; (2) compiling the data into easily usable, comprehensive databases that includes all data on each fire and relevant auxiliary data in a consistent format; and (3) analyzing the data through descriptive statistics, fitting generalized linear statistical models to the ignition data, and comparing observations of spread to that estimated by a new physics-based urban fire spread model. The PI and consultant on the project have extensive background in the study of post-earthquake fires, including field investigation of past events and development of models of ignitions, spread, and suppression. This research will contribute knowledge on three main aspects of post-earthquake fires ignitions, spread through a neighborhood, and fires in industrial facilities. It will improve understanding of the number, locations, causes, and timing of post-earthquake ignitions. The substantial inherent randomness in the phenomenon requires use of statistical approaches that are highly dependent on the amount and quality of available data. This project will greatly improve the available ignition data by almost doubling the number of observations documented in previous earthquakes; documenting areas in which ground shaking was strong enough to induce ignitions but did not, substantially improving our ability to forecast ignitions; by providing more consistent and comprehensive data than currently available; and by providing data on both ground shaking and tsunami-induced ignitions. Statistical modeling will be conducted to determine what the data suggests about where, when, why ignitions occur and to improve forecasting of ignitions in the future. Understanding of fire spread through a neighborhood will be enhanced by collection of data that allows more meaningful comparison with the emerging new generation of physics-based urban fire models. These models are potentially powerful but they need more comparisons to real events to improve them and build their credibility. Finally, the project promises to provide new insights into how post-earthquake fires start, spread, and are suppressed in industrial facilities specifically. We will examine how the fire safety systems in place perform in the face of extreme common cause failure mode of a major earthquake.The improved knowledge of post-earthquake ignitions and urban fire spread will be directly integrated into the development of better post-earthquake fire models. Those models can then in turn be integrated into regional earthquake loss models like HAZUS-MH, which have great demonstrated value to society by supporting long-term emergency response planning, urban planning, and loss estimation. The research results will be integrated into the PIs graduate Risk Analysis course and will be presented at professional conferences. A graduate student research assistant will participate in all aspects of the project and the research will form an integral part of his dissertation on post-earthquake fire modeling.

这项响应研究的赠款（Rapid）授予了2011年3月的火灾相关方面相比之下，历史上的地震是在神户（1995年）中记录的110，在北方山脊（1994年），在圣费尔南多（San Fernando）中有128个（1971年）和36个。主要步骤：（1）收集有关火灾相关的数据的数据通过描述性统计数据，将每个火灾的数据和相关的辅助数据拟合，将广义的林语固定统计模型与点火数据进行分析，并将其比较分布的观察结果项目具有earthquake火灾的研究，包括对过去的模型的现场调查，散布和抑制。地球后地质的时间是统计的统计量，这些现象高度依赖于可用数据的固定信息。不喜欢我们预测点火的能力；邻居引擎盖将通过数据收集，可以与新一代的基于物理的城市火灾模型进行大餐的比较。为了提供新的见解，如何在射击后射击如何启动，传播和被抑制的工业设施如何进行研究。射点和城市火灾的不利地位散布在更好的地球后火灾模型中，通过支持长期的紧急响应，城市规划和损失估算，对社会表现出了巨大的价值。纳入PIS研究生风险分析课程，并将成为专业会议。