Viral Transmission Dynamics in the Serengeti

塞伦盖蒂的病毒传播动力学

• 批准号: 0225453
• 负责人: Craig Packer
• 金额: $ 148.2万
• 依托单位: University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-06-01 至 2008-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0225453&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Viral; Transmission; Dynamics; Serengeti

Of the emerging infectious diseases, zoonotic and generalist viral pathogens pose a particular threat to public health and biodiversity. The effective control of these diseases requires both the identification of reservoires of infection and an understanding of viral transmission dynamics within complex host assemblages. Yet for most emerging infectious diseases, reservoirs remain to be identified and little is known about mechanisms by which infections are maintained. This study will propose a theoretical and practical framework for recognizing reservoirs in the field, which will be applied to identify reservoirs of viral infections in the Serengeti, Tanzania. The recent emergence of viral diseases in this area provides the opportunity for a comparative study of zoonotic and generalist pathogens within a diverse, well-studied and important ecosystem. Furthermore, the area is surrounded by rapidly expanding human and domestic animal populations which have profound impacts on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. This study will investigate the transmission dynamics of three viral pathogens, rabies, cane distemper virus (CDV), and canine parvovirus (CPV), identifying reservoirs of infection through a combination of approaches that include intervention trials, genetic analyses and disease surveillance. Empirical data on the spatial distribution of hosts and contact rated will be integrated into mathematical models of transmission between and within species. These models will be used to (a) investigate mechanisms by which viral infections are maintained in multi-population systems; (b) anticipate future requirements for disease management in relation to changes in human activity and climate patterns; (c) design cost-effective programs for the control of disease in human and animal populations.

在新兴的传染病中，人畜共患病毒病原体对公共卫生和生物多样性构成了特殊威胁。 这些疾病的有效控制既需要鉴定感染库，又需要对复杂宿主组合中病毒传播动态的理解。 然而，对于大多数新兴的传染病，储层仍有待确定，对维持感染的机制知之甚少。 这项研究将提出一个理论和实用框架，用于识别该领域的储层，该储层将用于识别坦桑尼亚塞伦盖蒂的病毒感染储层。 该领域病毒疾病的最新出现为对人畜共患病和通才病原体的比较研究提供了机会，这是一个多样化，研究良好且重要的生态系统中的。 此外，该地区被迅速扩大的人类和家庭动物种群所包围，这些人群对传染病的传播动态产生了深远的影响。 这项研究将调查三种病毒病原体，狂犬病，甘蔗畸变病毒（CDV）和犬小斑病毒（CPV）的传播动力学，通过包括干预试验，遗传分析和疾病监测的方法结合使用的方法来鉴定感染库。 关于宿主的空间分布和接触级的经验数据将集成到物种之间和内部传播的数学模型中。 这些模型将用于（a）研究在多人群系统中维持病毒感染的机制； （b）预计疾病管理对人类活动和气候模式变化的未来需求； （c）设计具有人类和动物种群疾病控制的成本效益计划。