DISSERTATION RESEARCH: Predicting viral dynamics in Serengeti Carnivores

论文研究：预测塞伦盖蒂食肉动物的病毒动态

• 批准号: 0710070
• 负责人: Craig Packer
• 金额: $ 1.19万
• 依托单位: University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-06-15 至 2008-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0710070&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: DISSERTATION; RESEARCH; Predicting; viral; dynamics

Diseases that infect multiple species threaten the health of humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. This study addresses the disease dynamics of two multi-species diseases in the Serengeti ecosystem: canine distemper virus (which killed over a thousand lions in 1994) and rabies (which kills humans as well as all other mammals). The objective of this thesis is to use innovative models parameterized with field data on intraspecific and interspecific contact rates to understand how canine distemper virus and rabies persist in the Serengeti ecosystem and to design appropriate control measures. Mathematical models allow for virtual experiments that would otherwise be unethical or infeasible in the real world.This research will be the first ecological study of disease dynamics in wild carnivores to combine modeling with detailed observations in a multi-host ecosystem. The theoretical models developed here will not only contribute to a basic understanding of disease dynamics but also provide practical recommendations for carnivore conservation and human health in rural Africa. Theoretical approaches to real-life conservation actions are urgently needed to improve future disease control programs in an era of frequent emerging diseases.

感染多种物种的疾病威胁着人类，家畜和野生动植物的健康。 这项研究探讨了Serengeti生态系统中两种多种物种疾病的疾病动态：犬类疾病病毒（1994年在一千个狮子杀死）和狂犬病（杀死人类以及所有其他哺乳动物）。本论文的目的是使用与种内和种间接触率有关的创新模型，以了解塞伦盖蒂生态系统中的犬科动物和狂犬病如何持续存在并设计适当的控制措施。数学模型允许在现实世界中进行虚拟实验，否则这些实验将是不道德或不可行的。这项研究将是对野生食肉动物中疾病动态的首次生态研究，将建模与多主宿主生态系统中的详细观察结果相结合。 这里开发的理论模型不仅将有助于对疾病动态的基本理解，而且还为非洲农村的食肉动物保护和人类健康提供了实用的建议。 在经常出现的疾病时代，迫切需要采取理论上的现实保护行动来改善未来的疾病控制计划。