BE/CNH: Biocomplexity of the Greater Serengeti: Humans in a Biologically Diverse Ecosystem

BE/CNH：大塞伦盖蒂的生物复杂性：生物多样性生态系统中的人类

• 批准号: 0308486
• 负责人: Craig Packer
• 金额: $ 172.25万
• 依托单位: University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-09-15 至 2008-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0308486&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Biocomplexity; Greater; Serengeti; Humans

The Greater Serengeti Ecosystem (hereafter "the Serengeti") is a complex coupled human and natural system consisting of a network of diverse and intense trophic interactions played out over a heterogeneous landscape. Livestock and a species-rich assemblage of large mammalian herbivores, the most abundant of which migrate over a 12,000 square-km area each year, consume a high fraction of primary plant production. These herbivores sustain human populations and a rich assemblage of avian and mammalian carnivores. Moreover, humans, wild animals, and livestock are all vulnerable to a wide variety of infectious diseases. Broad-scale heterogeneity in land use is superimposed on this dynamic landscape. The Serengeti National Park is a classic example of a protected area and ecotourism destination, while the adjacent Ngorongoro Conservation Area permits Maasai pastoralism, game reserves, (Maswa and Ikorongo) permit-controlled off-take of trophy species, and game-controlled areas (Grumeti) that permit all human activity except agriculture. The linkages between human and natural components of the Serengeti are so pervasive that human decision making may be the critical process governing the fate of the entire ecosystem. Pressure is mounting as human and animal populations converge on the western border of Serengeti National Park (SNP) and Mara Reserve. To study the coupling of natural ecosystem functioning and human decision making in the greater Serengeti, this interdisciplinary research project will use four modeling approaches: (1) Process-rich, spatially explicit ecosystem simulation models will be developed to predict changes in plant and animal communities as well as human use of landscapes at different scales. (2) Agent-based models will incorporate individual decision-making rules in a spatially explicit environment. (3) Analytical models of community modules will explore interactions among five to ten key species. (4) Macro-ecological models will describe system patterns and processes as functions of major resource inputs, such as rainfall and soil nutrients. These models will explore emergent dynamics of the Serengeti at various organizational scales. A large amount of Serengeti field data will be analyzed to parameterize the models and to assess their ability to explain past dynamics and current ecosystem trends. In addition, crucial new data on human activities and choices will be collected to understand the coupling of system dynamics between natural and human-dominated components. This blend of different modeling approaches and data syntheses will permit a unique integration of ecological and social sciences. The concept of ecosystem resilience/resistance will be directly related to the vulnerability of human societies.The theory of complex systems proposes that emergent properties can arise from relatively simple underlying mechanisms propagated in space and time. The vulnerability of humans and sustainability of biodiversity in the Serengeti may be driven by a few critical constraints that operate independently of individual components. These constraints arise from fundamental laws/principles in psychology, biology, chemistry, and physics that constrain key biological processes and human decisions. Alternatively, complex systems may be sensitive to small differences in initial conditions and show a tendency to switch between alternative states. This sensitivity suggests that biodiversity and human welfare may be highly contingent on details such as individual behavior, the identity of the species participating, and the precise spatial arrangement of interactions among humans, plants, animals, and diseases. The Serengeti provides a unique opportunity to test this hypothesis, because its component parts are so conspicuous and its dynamical patterns have been measured for 40 years. Finally, emergent system properties may be contingent on just a few critical components, which would imply that the Serengeti can be understood from networks of interaction among a few key species of plants/animals and humans. In addition to providing fundamental new knowledge, the project will provide insights and information of immediate value of managers and decision makers in the study region and many other locales. It also will provide valuable research and training opportunities for students and post-doctoral scholars, and it will facilitate international collaborations between U.S. and African scientists. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2003 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.

更大的Serengeti生态系统（以下简称“ Serengeti”）是一个复杂的人类和自然系统，由在异构景观中播出的多样和强烈的营养相互作用的网络组成。 牲畜和大型哺乳动物食草动物的物种组合，其中最丰富的每年在12,000平方公里的面积上迁移，消耗了一小部分植物生产。 这些草食动物维持人类的人群，并拥有丰富的鸟类和哺乳动物食肉动物的组合。 此外，人类，野生动物和牲畜都容易受到各种传染病的影响。 土地使用中的广泛异质性在这种动态景观上叠加。 Serengeti国家公园是受保护区和生态旅游目的地的经典典范，而邻近的Ngorongoro保护区则允许Maasai Pastoralism，Game Reserves，（Maswa和Ikorongo）允许在汤片中进行控制，并允许全人类的人类活动（Grumeti）进行所有人类活动。 Serengeti的人类和自然组成部分之间的联系是如此普遍，以至于人类决策可能是控制整个生态系统命运的关键过程。 随着人类和动物种群汇聚在塞伦盖蒂国家公园（SNP）和玛拉保护区的西部边界时，压力正在加剧。 为了研究更大的Serengeti中自然生态系统功能和人类决策的耦合，该跨学科研究项目将使用四种建模方法：（1）（1）将开发富含过程的，空间上显式的生态系统仿真模型，以预测动植物社区的变化，以及在不同尺度上使用人类的动物社区的使用。 （2）基于代理的模型将在空间明确的环境中纳入个人决策规则。 （3）社区模块的分析模型将探索五到十个关键物种之间的相互作用。 （4）宏观生态模型将将系统模式和过程描述为主要资源输入的功能，例如降雨和土壤养分。 这些模型将在各种组织量表上探索Serengeti的新兴动态。 将分析大量Serengeti现场数据，以参数化模型并评估其解释过去动态和当前生态系统趋势的能力。 此外，将收集有关人类活动和选择的关键新数据，以了解自然和人类主导组件之间系统动态的耦合。 这种不同的建模方法和数据合成的融合将允许对生态和社会科学的独特整合。 生态系统弹性/抵抗的概念将与人类社会的脆弱性直接相关。 人类的脆弱性和生物多样性在Serengeti中的可持续性可能是由独立于单个组成部分独立运行的一些关键约束来驱动的。 这些约束源于限制关键生物学过程和人类决策的心理学，生物学，化学和物理学的基本定律/原则。 或者，复杂的系统可能对初始条件下的微小差异敏感，并显示出在替代状态之间切换的趋势。 这种敏感性表明，生物多样性和人类福利可能会高度依赖于诸如个人行为，参与物种的身份以及人类，植物，动物和疾病之间相互作用的精确空间布置等细节。 Serengeti提供了一个独特的机会来检验这一假设，因为其组成部分非常明显，并且已经测量了40年的动力学模式。 最后，新兴的系统属性可能仅取决于一些关键组成部分，这意味着可以从少数几种植物/动物和人类的关键物种之间的相互作用网络中理解Serengeti。 除了提供基本的新知识外，该项目还将提供研究区域和许多其他地区的经理和决策者的直接价值的见解和信息。 它还将为学生和博士后学者提供宝贵的研究和培训机会，并将促进美国和非洲科学家之间的国际合作。 该项目得到了2003财年在环境中生物复杂性特殊竞争的奖项，重点是耦合自然和人类系统的动态。