Ecological Modeling of College Drinking

大学饮酒的生态模型

• 批准号: 7885734
• 负责人: RICHARD ALLEN SCRIBNER
• 金额: $ 11.54万
• 依托单位: LSU HEALTH SCIENCES CENTER
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2010-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7885734
• 关键词: Alcohols; Area; Cognitive; Communities; Computer Simulation; Data; Ecosystem; Environment; Epidemiology; Experimental Designs; Goals; Individual; Intervention; Legitimacy; Market Research; Measures; Modeling; National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism; Outcome; Policy Research; Principal Investigator; Process; Research Personnel; Research Project Grants; Severities; Software Engineering; System; Techniques; Testing; alcohol advertising; alcohol free option; base; college; college drinking; density of AOD outlets; drinking behavior; experience; mathematical model; model development; models and simulation; multidisciplinary; programs; public policy on alcohol; simulation; social; Alcohols; Area; Cognitive; Communities; Computer Simulation; Data; Ecosystem; Environment; Epidemiology; Experimental Designs; Goals; Individual; Intervention; Legitimacy; Market Research; Measures; Modeling; National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism; Outcome; Policy Research; Principal Investigator; Process; Research Personnel; Research Project Grants; Severities; Software Engineering; System; Techniques; Testing; alcohol advertising; alcohol free option; base; college; college drinking; density of AOD outlets; drinking behavior; experience; mathematical model; model development; models and simulation; multidisciplinary; programs; public policy on alcohol; simulation; social

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Ecosystems Modeling of College Drinking. The overall goal of the project is to establish a new experimental paradigm for alcohol policy studies based in mathematical modeling. To accomplish this goal a multidisciplinary team of researchers with expertise in alcohol policy research, theoretical ecosystem modeling, computer modeling and simulation, and software engineering have been brought together with the goal of developing predictive process-based models of college drinking that will be used to test central study hypotheses in a multi-campus experimental system. Hypothesis: Campus level measures indicating greater physical and social availability - in terms of fewer alcohol control policies, greater alcohol advertising, higher densities of alcohol outlets, and less alcohol policy enforcement - are associated with higher levels of individual drinking behavior and outcomes across study campuses even after controlling for individual level predictors of college drinking. Four major objectives will be achieved in the process of model development and testing. Objective 1: To generate a cognitive model of college drinking behavior that successfully captures the multilevel causal dynamic associated with individual-context mismatch that exists at many US colleges. Objective 2: To formulate a set of deterministic models of college drinking that simply capture the multilevel, multidimensional dynamic evidenced in the cognitive models. Objective 3: To transition the candidate models through tests of model type, model complexity and parameter values to arrive at the most robust models resulting from the transition process. Objective 4: To test study hypotheses with the resulting process-based models using an experimental system that requires successful prediction of college drinking outcomes replicated across multiple colleges.

描述（由申请人提供）：大学饮酒的生态系统建模。 该项目的总体目标是建立基于数学建模的酒精政策研究的新实验范式。为了实现这一目标，一个多学科的研究人员团队在酒精政策研究中具有专业知识，理论生态系统建模，计算机建模和仿真以及软件工程的专业知识，其目标是开发基于预测过程的大学饮酒模型，该模型将用于在多型型实验系统中测试中央研究假设。 假设：表明身体和社会可用性更大的校园水平措施 - 就较少的酒精控制政策，更大的酒精广告，较高的酒精渠道以及较少的酒精政策执法而言，即使在控制大学饮酒的个人水平预测者之后，甚至在研究校园的个人饮酒行为和研究校园的较高水平都相关。 在模型开发和测试过程中将实现四个主要目标。 目标1：产生一种大学饮酒行为的认知模型，该模型成功捕获了许多美国大学中存在的与个人信用不匹配相关的多级因果动态。 目标2：制定一组确定性的大学饮酒模型，这些模型仅捕获认知模型中的多维，多维动态。 目标3：通过模型类型，模型复杂性和参数值的测试过渡候选模型，以达到过渡过程产生的最强大模型。 目标4：使用实验系统以最终的基于过程的模型进行测试研究假设，该系统需要成功预测多个大学中复制的大学饮酒成果。