Econometric Research on Regulating Menthol Cigarettes and Smoking Cessation

薄荷醇卷烟监管与戒烟的计量经济学研究

• 批准号: 8910679
• 负责人: Donald S. Kenkel
• 金额: $ 19.02万
• 依托单位: CORNELL UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-08-15 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8910679
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Advertisements; Advertising; Advisory Committees; African American; Back; Cigarette; Data; Data Analyses; Development; Economic Policy; Economics; Excision; Exploratory/Developmental Grant; Exposure to; Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act; Future; Goals; Habits; Health; Hispanics; Individual; Investigation; Journals; Life Cycle Stages; Light; Marketing; Measures; Menthol; Methods; Modeling; Policies; Population; Price; Public Health; Reading; Recommendation; Recording of previous events; Reporting; Research; Research Priority; Research Project Grants; Respondent; Role; Sampling; Series; Smoke; Smoker; Smoking; Social Sciences; Surveys; Terminology; Time; Tobacco; Tobacco use; United States; United States National Institutes of Health; Vulnerable Populations; authority; feeding; improved; novel; population survey; response; smoking cessation; tobacco advertising; tobacco control; treatment effect; young adult

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act gives the FDA regulatory authority over the manufacture, distribution and marketing of tobacco products in order to improve public health. The Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee's recommendation to the FDA Center for Tobacco Products (CTP) is that: "Removal of menthol cigarettes from the marketplace would benefit public health in the United States." The FDA CTP will make a future determination about its regulatory approach to menthol. The broad goal of the proposed research is to help inform the FDA CTP's regulatory authority. To accomplish our broad goal we will apply state-of-the-art econometric methods to study relationships between the use of menthol and smoking cessation. Specific Aim 1 is to use quasi-experimental econometric methods to study the relationship between menthol cigarette use and smoking cessation. We will analyze data from the 2003, 2006-07 and 2010-11 cycles of the Tobacco Use Supplements to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS). The TUS-CPS provides large nationally representative samples of the US population, including sub-samples of current and former smokers of about N=75,000 in 2003, N=70,000 in 2006-07, and N=60,000 in 2010-11. We will conduct parallel analysis of data from the Simmons National Consumer Survey (NCS) from the 1995 waves onwards, which will provide a pooled sample of almost 80,000 current and past-year smokers. In the terminology of quasi-experimental econometrics, our main focus will be on the causal treatment effect of menthol use on smoking cessation. Because this exploratory research is proposed under the R21 mechanism, we do not aim to develop a single "best" estimate. Instead, we aim to develop a range of credible preliminary estimates, and more importantly, explore the potential of state-of-the-art econometric methods to this novel application. Specific Aim 2 is to conduct an empirical investigation into the economics of consumer choices about menthol cigarettes and smoking cessation. We will use geocode information to merge the individual-level data from the TUS-CPS and NCS with market-level demand influences including prices and advertising. For the NCS data, we will also use information on respondents' magazine-reading habits to create individual-level measures of potential exposure to cigarette advertisements in magazines. We will focus on social science economic research questions about: the extent to which smokers see menthol and non-menthol cigarettes as close substitutes; and the role of advertising in consumer choices. Specific Aim 3 is to conduct an empirical investigation into the economics of consumer choices about menthol cigarettes over the life course. We will use responses to unique questions in the 2010-2011 cycle to build approximate histories of life course menthol use. We will extend Aims 1 & 2 through the analysis of these novel life-course data. Aims 1-3 describe a plan to conduct exploratory and developmental R21 research that addresses research questions that cut across 3 of the Research Priorities outlined in the NIH FOA PAR-12-266: understanding the diversity of tobacco products; marketing; and economics and policies.

描述（由申请人提供）：2009 年《家庭吸烟预防和烟草控制法案》赋予 FDA 对烟草产品的制造、分销和营销的监管权，以改善公众健康。烟草产品科学咨询委员会向 FDA 烟草产品中心 (CTP) 提出的建议是：“将薄荷卷烟从市场上移除将有利于美国的公众健康。” FDA CTP 将在未来决定其对薄荷醇的监管方法。拟议研究的总体目标是帮助告知 FDA CTP 监管机构。为了实现我们的总体目标，我们将应用最先进的计量经济学方法来研究薄荷醇的使用与戒烟之间的关系。具体目标1是利用准实验计量经济学方法研究薄荷卷烟使用与戒烟之间的关系。我们将分析当前人口调查烟草使用补充 (TUS-CPS) 2003、2006-07 和 2010-11 周期的数据。 TUS-CPS 提供了具有全国代表性的美国人口样本，其中包括当前和曾经吸烟者的子样本，2003 年约 N=75,000，2006-07 年 N=70,000，2010-11 年 N=60,000。我们将对 1995 年以来的西蒙斯全国消费者调查 (NCS) 数据进行并行分析，这将提供近 80,000 名当前和去年吸烟者的汇总样本。在准实验计量经济学的术语中，我们的主要关注点是薄荷醇使用对戒烟的因果治疗效果。由于这项探索性研究是在 R21 机制下提出的，因此我们的目的并不是开发单一的“最佳”估计。相反，我们的目标是开发一系列可靠的初步估计，更重要的是，探索最先进的计量经济学方法在这一新颖应用中的潜力。具体目标 2 是对消费者选择薄荷卷烟和戒烟的经济学进行实证调查。我们将使用地理编码信息将来自 TUS-CPS 和 NCS 的个人级数据与市场级需求影响（包括价格和广告）合并。对于 NCS 数据，我们还将使用受访者杂志阅读习惯的信息来创建个人层面的杂志中香烟广告潜在暴露程度的衡量标准。我们将重点关注以下社会科学经济研究问题：吸烟者在多大程度上将薄荷醇和非薄荷醇卷烟视为相近的替代品；以及广告在消费者选择中的作用。具体目标 3 是对消费者在生命历程中选择薄荷卷烟的经济学进行实证调查。我们将利用对 2010-2011 年周期中独特问题的回答来构建生命全程薄荷醇使用的大致历史。我们将通过分析这些新颖的生命历程数据来扩展目标 1 和 2。目标 1-3 描述了一项进行探索性和发展性 R21 研究的计划，该研究解决了涉及 NIH FOA PAR-12-266 中概述的 3 个研究优先事项的研究问题：了解烟草产品的多样性；营销;以及经济和政策。