The Value of Long-Term Care Insurance to Married and Single Persons

长期护理保险对已婚和单身人士的价值

• 批准号: 8519198
• 负责人: MICHAEL D HURD
• 金额: $ 49.75万
• 依托单位: RAND CORPORATION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-09-30 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8519198
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Affect; Age; Behavioral; Benchmarking; Cessation of life; Characteristics; Consumer Preferences; Consumption; Data; Data Collection; Data Sources; Dementia; Disabled Persons; Discipline of Nursing; Economics; Evaluation; Event; Future; Goals; Health; Health Services; Healthcare; Heterogeneity; Home environment; Household; Individual; Insurance; Intervention; Interview; Investigation; Lead; Life; Life Cycle Stages; Link; Location; Long-Term Care; Long-Term Care Insurance; Longevity; Mails; Marital Status; Marketing; Medicaid; Medicare; Misinformation; Modeling; Nursing Homes; Participant; Penetration; Persons; Policies; Population; Preparation; Price; Probability; Quantitative Evaluations; Records; Research; Resources; Retirement; Risk; Secure; Sex Education; Side; Simulate; Social Welfare; Specific qualifier value; Spouses; Structural Models; Surveys; Time; Uncertainty; United States; Unmarried person; Variant; base; cost; design; exhaust; improved; models and simulation; mortality; programs; trend

ABSTRACT Despite the very large amounts spent by some individuals and households on long-term care, the market for long-term care insurance (LTCI) in the United States is not well developed. The overall goal of this project is to find the reasons why. The research is framed in the context of life-cycle models of spending that cover such health-related components as out-of-pocket spending on health care, long-term care in nursing homes, and LTCI. Two complementary modeling approaches will be employed: the first constructs a rich simulation model based on empirical estimates of initial conditions, taking into account all financial resources of the household and relevant transition rates (spending, health, mortality, long-term care status) stratified by marital status, sex and education. These estimates are used to simulate a person's risk of exhausting wealth before death, with and without LTCI. The fraction of the population for whom the risk of exhausting wealth is reduced by LTCI below some defined level would provide an estimate of the additional demand for LTCI in a market in which the participants behaved rationally to maximize their welfare. The second modeling approach will construct and estimate a dynamic programming model for married and single persons. Both models will be used to simulate the effects of different long-term care insurance policies, including the provisions of the CLASS Act. The research combines data from the Health and Retirement Study, including the detailed spending data from its supplemental study, the Consumption and Activities Mails survey, with newly collected data on consumer preferences to better understand behavioral or informational barriers (e.g., misinformation about the probabilities of nursing-home entry) to the purchase of LTCI. It also includes analyses of how individuals' information about Medicaid rules and private insurance interacts with individuals' private information about their own likelihood of needing long-term care to influence people's decisions to purchase LTCI. These results are combined with estimates of how insurance characteristics affect market penetration across subpopulations to design insurance packages that are better matched to the needs of different market segments, potentially increasing take-up rates.

抽象的 尽管一些个人和家庭花在长期护理上，但 美国的长期护理保险市场（LTCI）市场没有很好地发展。总体目标 项目是为了找到原因。这项研究是在生命周期模型的支出模型的背景下进行的 涵盖与健康相关的组件，例如医疗保健上的自付支出，护理中的长期护理 房屋和LTCI。将采用两种互补的建模方法：第一个构建富人 根据初始条件的经验估计，模拟模型，考虑到所有财务资源 家庭和相关过渡率（支出，健康，死亡率，长期护理状况）由 婚姻状况，性别和教育。这些估计用于模拟一个人耗尽财富的风险 死前，有和没有LTCI。耗尽财富风险的人口比例是 LTCI降低以下是某些定义水平以下的估计值 参与者表现得最大化其福利的市场。第二种建模方法 将为已婚和单身人士构建和估算动态的编程模型。两种型号都是 用于模拟不同长期护理保险政策的影响，包括 班级行为。该研究结合了健康和退休研究的数据，包括详细的 从其补充研究，消费和活动邮件调查中花费数据，新收集 有关消费者偏好的数据，以更好地理解行为或信息障碍（例如，错误信息 关于购买LTCI的护理家庭入境的概率。它还包括如何分析 个人有关医疗补助规则和私人保险的信息与个人的私人互动 有关他们自身需要长期护理的可能性的信息，以影响人们购买的决定 LTCI。这些结果与保险特征如何影响市场渗透的估计结合在一起 跨越群体设计的保险套餐，这些保险套件可以更好地匹配不同市场的需求 细分市场，可能提高增加率。