The Value of Long-Term Care Insurance to Married and Single Persons

长期护理保险对已婚和单身人士的价值

• 批准号: 8212735
• 负责人: MICHAEL D HURD
• 金额: $ 47.53万
• 依托单位: RAND CORPORATION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-09-30 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8212735
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Affect; Age; Behavioral; Benchmarking; Cessation of life; Characteristics; Consumer Preferences; Consumption; Data; Data Collection; Data Sources; Dementia; Disabled Persons; Discipline of Nursing; Economics; Evaluation; Event; Future; Goals; Health; Health Services; Healthcare; Heterogeneity; Home environment; Household; Individual; Insurance; Intervention; Interview; Investigation; Lead; Life; Life Cycle Stages; Link; Location; Long-Term Care; Long-Term Care Insurance; Longevity; Mails; Marital Status; Marketing; Medicaid; Medicare; Misinformation; Modeling; Nursing Homes; Participant; Penetration; Persons; Policies; Population; Preparation; Price; Probability; Quantitative Evaluations; Records; Research; Resources; Retirement; Risk; Secure; Sex Education; Side; Simulate; Social Welfare; Specific qualifier value; Spouses; Structural Models; Surveys; Time; Uncertainty; United States; Unmarried person; Variant; base; cost; design; exhaust; improved; models and simulation; mortality; programs; trend

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Despite the very large amounts spent by some individuals and households on long-term care, the market for long-term care insurance (LTCI) in the United States is not well developed. The overall goal of this project is to find the reasons why. The research is framed in the context of life-cycle models of spending that cover such health-related components as out-of-pocket spending on health care, long-term care in nursing homes, and LTCI. Two complementary modeling approaches will be employed: the first constructs a rich simulation model based on empirical estimates of initial conditions, taking into account all financial resources of the household and relevant transition rates (spending, health, mortality, long-term care status) stratified by marital status, sex and education. These estimates are used to simulate a person's risk of exhausting wealth before death, with and without LTCI. The fraction of the population for whom the risk of exhausting wealth is reduced by LTCI below some defined level would provide an estimate of the additional demand for LTCI in a market in which the participants behaved rationally to maximize their welfare. The second modeling approach will construct and estimate a dynamic programming model for married and single persons. Both models will be used to simulate the effects of different long-term care insurance policies, including the provisions of the CLASS Act. The research combines data from the Health and Retirement Study, including the detailed spending data from its supplemental study, the Consumption and Activities Mails survey, with newly collected data on consumer preferences to better understand behavioral or informational barriers (e.g., misinformation about the probabilities of nursing-home entry) to the purchase of LTCI. It also includes analyses of how individuals' information about Medicaid rules and private insurance interacts with individuals' private information about their own likelihood of needing long-term care to influence people's decisions to purchase LTCI. These results are combined with estimates of how insurance characteristics affect market penetration across subpopulations to design insurance packages that are better matched to the needs of different market segments, potentially increasing take-up rates. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Increasing longevity accompanied with increased rates of dementia will drive up the need for long-term care. This research shows which groups in the population would benefit most from purchasing long-term care insurance, taking into account their health and their financial resources. It suggests improved policy designs that would increase take up of LTCI, increasing the chances that people will get the help they need when they can no longer live independently and reducing the financial risk related to long-term care.

描述（由申请人提供）：尽管某些人和家庭在长期护理上花费了很大的花费，但美国的长期护理保险市场（LTCI）的发展尚未得到很好的发展。该项目的总体目标是找到原因。这项研究是在生命周期模型的支出模型的背景下进行的，这些支出涵盖了与健康相关的组件，例如医疗保健上的自付支出，疗养院的长期护理和LTCI。将采用两种互补的建模方法：第一个构建基于初始条件的经验估计的丰富模拟模型，考虑到家庭的所有财务资源以及相关的过渡率（支出，健康，死亡率，长期护理状况）根据婚姻状况，性别，性别和教育分层。这些估计用于模拟一个人在死亡前和没有LTCI的死亡前耗尽财富的风险。 LTCI低于某些定义水平的人口降低了耗尽财富的风险的人口比例将估计参与者在合理地表现最大化其福利的市场中对LTCI的额外需求。第二种建模方法将构建和估计已婚和单人的动态编程模型。两种模型都将用于模拟不同长期护理保险政策的影响，包括《集体法》的规定。该研究结合了来自健康和退休研究的数据，包括其补充研究的详细支出数据，消费和活动邮件调查，以及新收集的有关消费者偏好的数据，以更好地了解行为或信息障碍（例如，关于护理居家进入的概率的错误信息），以购买LTCI的购买）。它还包括分析个人有关医疗补助规则和私人保险如何与个人有关其自身可能需要长期护理以影响人们购买LTCI的决定的可能性的私人信息的分析。这些结果与估计保险特征如何影响跨亚种群的市场渗透到设计保险套餐的估计相结合，这些保险套件可以更好地符合不同市场细分市场的需求，从而可能提高增加的率。 公共卫生相关性：寿命不断增加，伴随着痴呆率提高将促进长期护理的需求。这项研究表明，考虑到他们的健康和财务资源，哪些人群中的哪个群体将从购买长期护理保险中受益最大。它表明，改进的政策设计将增加LTCI所承担的范围，从而增加人们在无法再独立生活并降低与长期护理相关的财务风险时获得所需的帮助的机会。