Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai: a paradigm-changing eruption

洪加汤加-洪加哈派：一次改变范式的喷发

• 批准号: NE/Y000048/1
• 负责人: Roy Grainger
• 金额: $ 92.6万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FY000048%2F1
• 关键词: Hunga; Tonga; Ha; apai; paradigm

The 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HT-HH) is the most intense volcanic eruption in 30 years. The eruption challenges many preconceptions about the impact of volcanic plumes on the atmosphere and climate, and calls for new, more comprehensive methods for studying volcanic plumes. These would improve future monitoring capability and enhance understanding of plume dynamics and impacts. Monitoring volcanic plumes is important for a number of reasons including their climatic impact. This climate impact is usually driven by the emission of sulphur dioxide (SO2). This gas can be converted to sulphate aerosol which deflects incoming solar radiation and causes planetary cooling. Despite the intensity of the eruption, HT-HH emitted only small quantities of SO2: not sufficient to cause cooling. However, due to it being a submarine volcano, the eruption injected significant quantities of water vapour into the atmosphere. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas and in contrast to 'normal' eruption-climate impacts, the eruption is expected to have a warming effect in the troposphere: amplifying anthropogenically driven climate change. Water vapour has been largely neglected in previous studies of volcano-atmosphere-climate interactions and requires significant further study. It has an additional effect of causing the rapid emergence of sulphate aerosol: possibly through accelerating the conversion of SO2 to sulphate, or more directly from sulphate in seawater. Early formation of sulphate has also been identified during other eruptions. Regardless of the formation mechanism, early emergence of sulphate aerosol means that measurements of SO2 alone (the conventional approach), are not sufficient for quantifying the emission of sulphur to the atmosphere. Another motive for studying volcanic plumes is their hazardous nature, in particular, to aviation. Volcanic ash can cause significant damage to aircraft, in some cases so severe that it causes engine failure and potentially life-threatening circumstances. Volcanic gases can also damage aircraft. Monitoring these plumes is therefore essential to minimize the hazard they present. Satellite data plays an important part of monitoring and studying volcanic plumes. The HT-HH eruption has identified a number of areas for improvement which can be adressed with new instrumentation making frequent global observations (unavailable for past eruptions). This project will develop the next generation of satellite retrievals for the quantification of volcanic plume properties. These will be developed for the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI): a meteorological satellite instrument with sensitivity to multiple types of volcanic plumes. The new retrievals will be more comprehensive: simultaneously obtaining information about water vapour, SO2, sulphate and volcanic ash, rather than treating them separately. This will make them valuable tools for both hazard detection and providing data to rapidly assess climate impacts. Working closely with the UK Met Office will ensure the newly developed tools can be used operationally for future eruptive events, so ensuring a lasting impact from the project. Following the development of these retrievals, they will be applied, along with other datasets, to study the HT-HH in detail. Climate impact models and seasonal forecasts, initialized with results from the new satellite data, will be used to study the future impact of this eruption on climate and atmospheric dynamics. This will build a better understanding of this unusual event. The impact goes beyond this eruption, as applying the retrievals to study other eruptive events will help to improve understanding of volcanic plume dynamics. The HT-HH eruption has raised numerous questions about volcanic plumes. It is likely that this will have a lasting impact on the direction of research over the next few decades, with this project playing a key role in this.

2022年匈牙利·汤加·汉加·哈帕（HT-HH）的2022年爆发是30年来最激烈的火山喷发。爆发挑战了关于火山羽流对大气和气候的影响的许多先入之见，并要求采用新的，更全面的方法来研究火山羽流。这些将提高未来的监视能力，并增强对羽流动态和影响的理解。监测火山羽非常重要，其原因包括其气候影响。这种气候影响通常是由二氧化硫（SO2）的排放驱动的。该气体可以转化为硫酸盐气溶胶，该气溶胶会偏转传入的太阳辐射并导致行星冷却。尽管喷发强度，HT-HH仅排放了少量的SO2：不足以引起冷却。但是，由于它是海底火山，喷发将大量的水蒸气注入了大气中。水蒸气是一种温室气体，与“正常”喷发气候影响相反，预计喷发在对流层中具有变暖作用：扩大人为驱动的气候变化。在火山 - 大气气候相互作用的先前研究中，水蒸气已被大大忽略，需要进一步的进一步研究。它具有导致硫酸盐气溶胶快速出现的其他作用：可能是通过加速SO2向硫酸盐的转化，或直接从海水中的硫酸盐转化。在其他喷发期间，还发现了硫酸盐的早期形成。不管形成机制如何，硫酸盐气溶胶的早期出现意味着单独的SO2（常规方法）的测量不足以量化硫对大气的发射。研究火山羽流的另一个动机是它们的危险性质，特别是对航空的危险性质。火山灰可能会对飞机造成重大损坏，在某些情况下如此严重，以至于引起发动机故障和潜在的威胁生命的情况。火山气体也会损坏飞机。因此，监测这些羽毛对于最大程度地减少它们所带来的危害至关重要。卫星数据是监测和研究火山羽流的重要组成部分。 HT-HH爆发已经确定了许多改进领域，可以通过新的仪器进行频繁的全球观察结果（过去的喷发）来使其感到敬意。该项目将开发下一代卫星检索，以定量火山羽状特性。这些将针对红外大气发声干涉仪（IASI）开发：一种对多种类型的火山羽流敏感的气象卫星仪器。新的检索将更加全面：同时获取有关水蒸气，SO2，硫酸盐和火山灰的信息，而不是分别处理它们。这将使它们成为危害检测和提供数据以快速评估气候影响的宝贵工具。与英国大都会区紧密合作将确保新开发的工具可以在运营上用于未来的喷发事件，从而确保项目对项目产生持久影响。在开发这些检索之后，将与其他数据集一起应用它们详细研究HT-HH。气候影响模型和季节性预测将以新的卫星数据的结果初始化，用于研究这种喷发对气候和大气动态的未来影响。这将更好地理解这一异常事件。影响超出了这次喷发，因为应用检索研究其他喷发事件将有助于提高对火山羽流量的理解。 HT-HH爆发提出了许多有关火山羽流的问题。在接下来的几十年中，这可能会对研究方向产生持久的影响，而该项目在这方面发挥了关键作用。