Radar-supported Next-Generation Forecasting of Volcanic Ash Hazard (R4AsH)

雷达支持的下一代火山灰危害预报 (R4AsH)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/S003843/1
负责人：
Roy Grainger
金额：
$ 30.12万
依托单位：
University of Oxford
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS003843%2F1
关键词：
Radar supported Next Generation Forecasting

项目摘要

Volcanic plumes from explosive eruptions present a global hazard to health, the environment and the economy. The disruption caused by airborne ash to aviation is well documented and can have serious financial repercussions. Consequently, forecasting the extent and evolution of ash-rich plumes is vital for hazard assessment. However, the accuracy of numerical plume models is currently limited by uncertainties in the input eruption parameters, or 'source term', that describe the initial distribution of ash in the atmosphere.We will develop a new approach to improve estimates of source term parameters by combining advanced numerical models, techniques for understanding uncertainty and state-of-the-art satellite observations of volcanic plumes. Applying this method to data from recent eruptions will provide critical insight into how plumes evolve as they are dispersed, and into the processes involved, such as particle sedimentation and aggregation. We currently have no technique for observing these processes in the critical source term region, and such real-time data would be transformational for ash hazard forecasting. To address this, we propose multi-frequency radar as a powerful new measurement tool capable of providing the key source term parameters that describe particle size distribution and mass loading. We will develop and demonstrate the potential of this technique using laboratory experiments and advanced numerical simulations of plumes. The results will be immediately relevant to existing single-frequency radar systems currently used to observe plumes, and will inform the design and deployment of next-generation multi-frequency systems.This project is a collaboration between volcanologists, atmospheric and radar physicists and meteorologists, who are expert in laboratory experiments, remote sensing, uncertainty in environmental systems and numerical modelling. By working directly with the UK Met Office, we will deliver a new level of uncertainty understanding into operational long-range airborne ash concentration forecasts. The results will be of enormous benefit to international workers in volcanic plume forecasting and hazard assessment, and will open the door to near-real-time 3D quantification of plume processes. More accurate forecasts of the dispersal of ash in the atmosphere will enable improved mitigation for health effects, infrastructure damage, agricultural contamination and aviation hazards to deliver significant and globally relevant social, environmental and economic impacts.

爆炸性喷发的火山羽质对健康，环境和经济构成了全球危害。空气中灰对航空的破坏已得到充分的文献记载，并可能带来严重的财务影响。因此，预测富含灰烬的羽毛的程度和演变对于危害评估至关重要。然而，目前，数值羽流模型的准确性受投入爆发参数或“源术语”中的不确定性的限制，这些术语描述了大气中灰分的初始分布。我们将开发一种新方法来通过结合先进的数值模型来改善源术语参数的估计，从而通过理解不确定的卫星卫星材料观察到少量的羽毛羽毛羽毛羽毛羽毛状的技术来改善源术语参数。将此方法应用于最近喷发的数据将提供有关羽毛分散以及所涉及的过程（例如粒子沉积和聚集）的批判性见解。目前，我们没有在关键的源术语区域观察这些过程的技术，而这种实时数据对于烟灰危害预测将是转换的。为了解决这个问题，我们提出多频雷达作为一个强大的新测量工具，能够提供描述粒度分布和质量负载的关键源项参数。我们将使用实验室实验和羽毛的高级数值模拟来开发并证明该技术的潜力。该结果将立即与目前用于观察羽流的现有单频雷达系统有关，并将为下一代多频系统的设计和部署提供信息。该项目是火山学家，大气层和雷达物理学家与气象学家之间的合作，他们是实验室实验，远程感官，不确定的环境系统和数字模型的专家。通过直接与英国大都会办公室合作，我们将对运营的远程空降灰分浓度预测提供新的不确定性理解。在火山羽流和危险评估中，国际工人将为国际工人带来巨大的好处，并将为底羽流程的近实时3D定量打开大门。对大气中灰分扩散的更准确预测将改善缓解健康效果，基础设施损害，农业污染和航空危害，从而带来重大且与全球相关的社会，环境和经济影响。