Integrative Modelling for Shelf Seas Biogeochemistry

陆架海生物地球化学综合模拟

• 批准号: NE/K001698/1
• 负责人: Jason Holt
• 金额: $ 32.06万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK001698%2F1
• 关键词: Integrative; Modelling; Shelf; Seas; Biogeochemistry

Shelf seas are of major societal importance providing a diverse range of goods (e.g. fisheries, renewable energy, transport) and services (e.g. carbon and nutrient cycling and biodiversity). At the same time they are under enormous pressures from man's activities which may have significant impact on the basic function of such systems. For example climate change will lead to large scale changes in stratification and temperature, while increasing atmospheric CO2 levels will lead to acidification of the oceans with significant impacts on ocean biogeochemistry. Simultaneously combinations of direct human activities (e.g. fishing, and eutrophication) directly impact the biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nutrients. Our understanding of the biogeochemistry of the shelf seas is limited and many processes are poorly understood, in particular the biogeochemical budgets of carbon and nutrients. The key questions include is the UK continental shelf a source or sink for carbon and nitrogen remain unanswered. In addition there are gaps in our knowledge of some of the key physical, chemical and biological controls on biogeochemical cycles. By synthesising empirical knowledge into quantitative descriptions, computer models allow scientists to investigate the functioning of, and interactions between, ecology, biogeochemistry, anthropogenic pressures and climate. The overarching scientific goal is to enhance our capacity to assess the controls on biogeochemical cycling and hence to quantify with uncertainties the budgets of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous and silicon including their response to climate, natural variability and anthropogenic stress. The underpinning strategic goal is to develop a new shelf seas biogeochemical model system, coupled to a state of the art physical model, capable of predicting regional impacts of environmental change from days to decades. We will establish a new common model version for the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), drawing from the combined expertise of the partners. Exploiting, existing data, and new biogeochemical process understanding generated by the SSB program we will improve existing process models and develop new ones as appropriate, for both the physical and biological models. We will develop collaborations with the observational and experimentally focussed scientists working on the entire SSB programme in order to make best use of the available expertise. This will form the basis of the new community model system which will be supported and made freely available to the wider UK and international research communities. The resultant model will be used to make simulations of past present and potential future sates of the biogeochemistry of the UK shelf. In summary, the project will provide new modelling tools which provide estimates of crucial information to help resolve key scientific questions as well as provide a better understanding of the functioning of the shelf seas as they respond to global change and direct anthropogenic pressures. The combination of predictive tools and new knowledge will underpin the development and implementation of marine policy and the implementation of marine forecast systems.

货架海具有重要的社会重要性，可提供各种商品（例如渔业，可再生能源，运输）和服务（例如碳和营养循环和生物多样性）。同时，它们受到人类活动的巨大压力，可能会对此类系统的基本功能产生重大影响。例如，气候变化将导致分层和温度的大规模变化，而大气二氧化碳水平的增加将导致海洋酸化，对海洋生物地球化学产生重大影响。直接人类活动（例如捕鱼和富营养化）的同时，直接影响碳和养分的生物地球化学周期。我们对货架海生物地球化学的理解有限，许多过程对碳和养分的生物地球化学预算却很少了解。关键问题包括英国大陆架是碳和氮的来源或水槽，尚未得到解答。另外，我们了解生物地球化学周期的一些关键物理，化学和生物学控制的差距。通过将经验知识综合为定量描述，计算机模型允许科学家研究生态学，生物地球化学，人为压力和气候之间的功能和相互作用。总体科学目标是增强我们评估对生物地球化学循环的控制的能力，因此可以通过不确定性量化碳，氮，磷和硅的预算，包括它们对气候的反应，自然变异性和人为应力。基础战略目标是开发新的架子海域生物地球化学模型系统，并结合到最先进的物理模型，能够预测从几天到几十年的环境变化的区域影响。我们将为欧洲区域海洋生态系统模型（ERSEM）建立一个新的通用模型版本，该模型从合作伙伴的组合专业知识中借鉴。利用SSB计划生成的利用，现有数据以及新的生物地球化学过程理解，我们将针对物理和生物学模型改善现有过程模型并适当地开发新的过程模型。我们将与从事整个SSB计划的观察和实验专注的科学家建立合作，以充分利用可用的专业知识。这将构成新的社区模型系统的基础，该系统将得到支持并免费提供给更广泛的英国和国际研究社区。最终的模型将用于模拟英国货架生物地球化学的过去和潜在的未来现象。总而言之，该项目将提供新的建模工具，以提供关键信息的估计，以帮助解决关键的科学问题，并在货架海洋对全球变化和直接人为压力的反应时更好地了解货架海洋的功能。预测工具和新知识的结合将支持海洋政策的制定和实施以及海洋预测系统的实施。

项目成果

Climatic Controls on the Spring Phytoplankton Growing Season in a Temperate Shelf Sea

温带陆架海春季浮游植物生长季的气候控制

• DOI: 10.1029/2021jc017209
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Oceans
• 作者: Jardine J

Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

气候变化对区域海洋初级生产的潜在影响：欧洲五个海洋的比较分析

• DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2015.11.004
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Progress in Oceanography
• 影响因子: 4.1
• 作者: Holt J

Fine particle retention and deposition in regions of cyclonic tidal current rotation

气旋潮流旋转区域的细颗粒滞留和沉积

• DOI: 10.1016/j.margeo.2019.01.006
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Marine Geology
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Williams M

Controls on near-bed oxygen concentration on the Northwest European Continental Shelf under a potential future climate scenario

未来潜在气候情景下对西北欧洲大陆架近床氧浓度的控制

• DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102400
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Progress in Oceanography
• 影响因子: 4.1
• 作者: Wakelin S

Rain triggers seasonal stratification in a temperate shelf sea.

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38599-y
• 发表时间: 2023-06-02
• 期刊: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
• 影响因子: 16.6
• 作者: Jardine, J. E.;Palmer, M.;Mahaffey, C.;Holt, J.;Wakelin, S. L.;Dusterhus, A.;Sharples, J.;Wihsgott, J.
• 通讯作者: Wihsgott, J.