Resolving Climate Impacts on shelf and CoastaL sea Ecosystems (ReCICLE)

解决气候对陆架和沿海海洋生态系统的影响 (ReCICLE)

• 批准号: NE/M003477/1
• 负责人: Jason Holt
• 金额: $ 43.58万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM003477%2F1
• 关键词: Resolving; Climate; Impacts; shelf; CoastaL

Shelf and coastal seas provide vital services for society, notably food, from fish, and climate regulation, through their role in drawing down and storing atmospheric CO2. The ecosystems of these seas are vulnerable to global climate change, arising from greenhouse gas emissions. Being able to provide reliable future projections of the impacts of climate change on these regions is therefore vital for our knowledge of how these services may be impacted. The overall purpose of the proposed work is to identify and quantify the potential future response to climate change of the simple plant life (phytoplankton) forming the base of the food chain of the shelf sea ecosystems and to assess the likely range of this response. To deliver this we use a state of the art coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model at an exceptionally fine resolution. This is driven by the output of global climate models, which along with aspects of the ecosystem model structure, are selected so as to span the potential response of the system to climate change, and provide a range of views of the future. Statistical methods are then used to characterise this response in terms of timeseries and changes in areas of similar properties (the biogeography), how clearly the climate signal can be detected and how this signal propagates through the food web.We focus on six key indicators of ecosystem response on the Northwest European Continental shelf (termed intermediate services): primary production (plant growth), oxygen uptake, nutrient transport, uptake and recycling, biological control (how energy and material is transferred between different levels in the food web), and the habitat of the water column. The impact of climate change (through changes in the atmosphere, open ocean and terrestrial forcing) on the physical and chemical processes will affect these key indicators in different ways. Examples include: modification of the shelf sea nutrient distribution by changes in oceanic mixing, changes to the timing and magnitude of spring phytoplankton blooms due to changes in wind mixing and light levels, and changes to sea water temperature directly affecting growth rates. The physical processes active in the regions of these seas where primary production is highest are generally of finer scale than many model systems can accommodate, examples include extra mixing generated by steep and variable topography, plumes of nutrient and sediment rich river water, and fronts between well mixed and seasonally stratified waters. The potential effects of climate change on the finescale processes is largely unknown, but may radically change our view of the overall impact of climate change in these seas. Alongside the details of the physics, the complexity of the ecosystem must also be accounted for. There a several feedbacks at the base of the food web, which control how chemical energy cycles through the system. If different elements of this cycle, e.g. grazing by zooplankton and nutrient recycling by bacteria, respond to change in different ways then the overall effect may be amplified or suppressed. This amplification or suppression determines how vulnerable the overlying services (e.g. fish production) are to climate change, and hence the potential societal implications.To address these issues we propose a tightly integrated programme of model experiment design, simulation, evaluation and analysis, organised in four work packages: Experiment design and uncertainty, Model validation using observational analysis, Analysis of ecosystem response, Model products. Together this will produce an unprecedented view of potential climate impacts on marine ecosystems, including the effects of fine-scale physical processes, non-linear ecosystem interactions and an assessment of the range of likely impacts. We will condense this information into a set of model products that are readily accessible by scientists of other disciplines and wider stakeholders.

货架和沿海海洋通过在降低和存储大气二氧化碳中的作用，为社会，尤其是食物，鱼类和气候调节提供重要服务。这些海洋的生态系统容易受到全球气候变化的影响，这是由于温室气体排放引起的。因此，能够提供可靠的未来预测气候变化对这些地区的影响至关重要，对于我们了解如何影响这些服务。拟议工作的总体目的是识别和量化对简单植物生命的气候变化（Phytoplankton）的潜在反应，构成了架子海生态系统食物链的基础，并评估这种反应的可能范围。为了实现这一目标，我们使用以异常良好的分辨率耦合的水力动力生态生态系统模型。这是由全球气候模型的输出驱动的，该模型与生态系统模型结构的各个方面一起选择，以跨越系统对气候变化的潜在响应，并提供一系列未来的视图。然后，使用统计方法来以时间表的时间和相似特性区域（生物地理学）的变化来表征此响应，如何清楚地检测到气候信号，以及该信号如何通过食物网络传播。我们关注的六个关键指标西北欧洲大陆货架（称为中级服务）的生态系统反应：初级生产（植物生长），氧气吸收，营养运输，吸收和回收利用，生物控制（能源和材料如何在食品网络中的不同水平之间传递）以及水柱的栖息地。气候变化（通过大气，开阔海洋和陆地强迫的变化）对物理和化学过程的影响将以不同的方式影响这些关键指标。示例包括：通过海洋混合变化的变化，春季浮游植物的时机和幅度的变化，由于风混合和光水平的变化以及海水温度的变化直接影响生长速率而变化。在这些海洋地区，主要生产最高的地区的物理过程通常比许多模型系统可以容纳的尺度更细，例子包括由陡峭和可变地形产生的额外混合，营养和富含沉积物的羽毛，以及之间混合和季节性分层的水。气候变化对罚款过程的潜在影响在很大程度上是未知的，但可能从根本上改变了我们对这些海洋气候变化的总体影响的看法。除了物理学的细节外，还必须考虑生态系统的复杂性。食品网的底部有几个反馈，可以控制化学能在系统中循环的方式。如果此周期的不同元素，例如浮游动物和细菌的营养回收利用，以不同的方式响应，然后可以放大或抑制整体效果。这种扩增或抑制决定了上覆服务的脆弱性（例如鱼类生产）是为了气候变化，因此有潜在的社会影响。要解决这些问题，我们提出了一项模型实验设计，模拟，评估和分析的紧密整合的计划，四个工作包：实验设计和不确定性，使用观测分析，生态系统响应分析，模型产品的模型验证。这将共同产生对海洋生态系统潜在气候影响的前所未有的观点，包括精细的物理过程的影响，非线性生态系统相互作用以及对可能影响范围的评估。我们将将这些信息浓缩到一组模型产品中，这些产品很容易被其他学科和更广泛的利益相关者的科学家访问。

项目成果

Controls on near-bed oxygen concentration on the Northwest European Continental Shelf under a potential future climate scenario

未来潜在气候情景下对西北欧洲大陆架近床氧浓度的控制

• DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102400
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Progress in Oceanography
• 影响因子: 4.1
• 作者: Wakelin S

Spatiotemporal scales of larval dispersal and connectivity among oil and gas structures in the North Sea

北海幼体扩散的时空尺度和油气结构之间的连通性

• DOI: 10.3354/meps13970
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Marine Ecology Progress Series
• 影响因子: 2.5
• 作者: Mayorga-Adame C

Why Is Seasonal Density Stratification in Shelf Seas Expected to Increase Under Future Climate Change?

• DOI: 10.1029/2022gl100448
• 发表时间: 2022-11
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: J. Holt;J. Harle;S. Wakelin;J. Jardine;J. Hopkins

Climate-Driven Change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Can Greatly Reduce the Circulation of the North Sea

气候驱动的北大西洋和北冰洋变化可以大大减少北海的环流

• DOI: 10.1029/2018gl078878
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Holt J

Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017
• 发表时间: 2017-02-01
• 期刊: GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
• 影响因子: 5.1
• 作者: Holt, Jason;Hyder, Patrick;Wood, Richard
• 通讯作者: Wood, Richard