Modelling the Impact of Surface Melt on Antarctic Ice Shelf Stability

模拟地表融化对南极冰架稳定性的影响

• 批准号: 2744008
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: CARDIFF UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2744008
• 关键词: Modelling; Impact; Surface; Melt; Antarctic

Floating ice shelves modulate the flow of ice towards the ocean, and are vulnerable to changes in both the atmosphere and ocean. The formation of surface meltwater has been linked with the disintegration of many ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula over the last several decades. The most notable ice shelf collapse occurred in 2002, when significant meltwater lake coverage was observed on the surface of the Larsen B Ice Shelf before its collapse, resulting in the loss of an area of ice over twenty times the size of Cardiff over a period of just a few weeks. Such collapse can affect ocean circulation and temperature, and cause a loss of habitat. The loss of ice shelves removes their buttressing effect on the grounded ice sheet, which has in the past led to an observed acceleration of glaciers that previously fed into the ice shelves, and a corresponding rise in sea level. Understanding the surface hydrology of ice shelves is thus an essential first step to reliably project future sea level rise from ice sheet melt. Surface hydrology processes are poorly represented in ice sheet and climate models, despite the importance of surface meltwater production and transport to ice shelf stability. As a result of this, projections of future sea level rise under a changing climate still vary over an order of magnitude.

漂浮的冰架调节冰的流向海洋，并且容易受到大气和海洋的变化。在过去的几十年中，表面融化的形成与南极半岛的许多冰架的瓦解有关。最著名的冰架倒塌发生在2002年，当时在Larsen B冰架倒塌之前，在Larsen B冰架的表面上观察到了巨大的融合湖覆盖率，导致在短短几周内，冰面积损失了二十倍的冰面积。这种崩溃会影响海洋循环和温度，并导致栖息地丧失。冰架的损失消除了他们对接地冰盖的支撑作用，过去曾观察到冰川的加速，冰川以前送入冰架上，并相应地增加了海平面。因此，了解冰架的表面水文是可靠地预测未来海平面从冰盖上升的重要第一步。尽管表面融合水的生产和运输到冰架稳定性的重要性，但表面水文过程在冰盖和气候模型中的代表性很差。因此，在不断变化的气候下，未来海平面的预测在数量级上仍然有所不同。