Modelling the Impact of Surface Melt on Antarctic Ice Shelf Stability

模拟地表融化对南极冰架稳定性的影响

• 批准号: 2744008
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: CARDIFF UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2744008
• 关键词: Modelling; Impact; Surface; Melt; Antarctic

Floating ice shelves modulate the flow of ice towards the ocean, and are vulnerable to changes in both the atmosphere and ocean. The formation of surface meltwater has been linked with the disintegration of many ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula over the last several decades. The most notable ice shelf collapse occurred in 2002, when significant meltwater lake coverage was observed on the surface of the Larsen B Ice Shelf before its collapse, resulting in the loss of an area of ice over twenty times the size of Cardiff over a period of just a few weeks. Such collapse can affect ocean circulation and temperature, and cause a loss of habitat. The loss of ice shelves removes their buttressing effect on the grounded ice sheet, which has in the past led to an observed acceleration of glaciers that previously fed into the ice shelves, and a corresponding rise in sea level. Understanding the surface hydrology of ice shelves is thus an essential first step to reliably project future sea level rise from ice sheet melt. Surface hydrology processes are poorly represented in ice sheet and climate models, despite the importance of surface meltwater production and transport to ice shelf stability. As a result of this, projections of future sea level rise under a changing climate still vary over an order of magnitude.

漂浮冰架调节冰向海洋的流动，并且容易受到大气和海洋变化的影响。过去几十年来，地表融水的形成与南极半岛许多冰架的崩解有关。最显着的冰架崩塌发生在 2002 年，当时在拉森 B 冰架崩塌之前，在其表面观察到了明显的融水湖覆盖，导致在一段时间内失去了超过卡迪夫面积 20 倍的冰面积。就几个星期。这种塌陷会影响海洋环流和温度，并导致栖息地丧失。冰架的消失消除了它们对接地冰盖的支撑作用，这在过去导致了先前流入冰架的冰川加速，以及海平面相应上升。因此，了解冰架的表面水文学是可靠地预测冰盖融化导致的未来海平面上升的重要第一步。尽管地表融水的产生和运输对于冰架稳定性很重要，但地表水文过程在冰盖和气候模型中的表现却很差。因此，在气候变化的情况下，对未来海平面上升的预测仍然存在一个数量级的差异。