Construction of Precipitation Forecasting Model in Asia-Pacific Region using Atmospheric-Oceanic Indices

利用大气-海洋指数构建亚太地区降水预报模型

基本信息

批准号：
15600003
负责人：
KAWAMURA Akira
金额：
$ 2.18万
依托单位：
TOKYO METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY (2004-2005)Kyushu University (2003)
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2003
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2003 至 2005
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

First, simple but robust approaches were used to reveal the quantitative and statistically significant influence of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on monthly precipitation at five stations distributed over South Korea and Fukuoka, Japan. The monthly precipitation data were transformed into non-exceedence probability time series. SOI is classified into five categories. The spatial distribution of ENSO influence is obtained from the correlation results. The monthly precipitation in South Korea and Fukuoka, Japan is generally influenced by La Nina events. The influence has a four-month lag time in the southern coastal area, and a five-month lag for the middle to northern area of South Korea.Second, the cross-correlations between four indices of SOI, PDOI, NPI, NAOI and normally standardized monthly precipitation in Fukuoka are investigated in detail. For the original time series, the correlations between those indices and precipitation are almost zero for any lag times. However, qui … More te strong statistically significant correlations are obtained when using those indices data categorized into five groups according to their magnitudes. In particular, very high correlation coefficients are obtained between precipitation and SOI, NPI with some lag times under some categories.Third, a methodology to investigate joint phase space characteristics of SOI and the standardized temperature and precipitation data in Fukuoka was studied byusing ideas from dynamical systems theory. From the results, it can thus be said that the joint relationships between the three investigated variables are complex with no obvious linear relationships. The methodology may serve as a basis for deterministic dynamics of jointly interrelated variables.Further, the medium term forecasting of August rainfall in Fukuoka city was conducted. As the candidate predictors, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and three atmospheric-oceanic indices are selected. It was found that a model with the NPI and selected SST as inputs performed reasonably well. Less

首先，使用简单但强大的方法来揭示南部振荡指数（SOI）对分布在韩国和日本福库卡的五个站点的每月降水的定量和统计学意义的影响。每月的降水数据转化为非概率概率时间序列。 SOI分为五个类别。 ENSO影响的空间分布是从相关结果获得的。日本韩国和福冈的每月降水通常受到拉尼娜事件的影响。影响在南沿海地区有四个月的滞后时间，韩国中部到北部的五个月滞后。第二，SOI，PDOI，NPI，NAOI，NAOI，NAOI，正常标准化的福库卡降水量的互相关详细研究了福克库卡的四个指数。对于原始时间序列，在任何滞后时间，这些指数与降水之间的相关性几乎为零。但是，当使用这些索引数据根据五组类别类别时，可以获得更强的统计学意义相关性。特别是，在某些类别下，在降水和SOI，NPI之间获得了非常高的相关系数。三分之一，研究SOI的联合相空间特征的方法以及福库卡中的标准化温度和降水数据是通过动态系统理论从动态系统理论中研究的。因此，可以说三个研究变量之间的关节关系很复杂，没有明显的线性关系。该方法可以作为确定共同相互关联变量的动态的基础。法勒进行了对福冈市八月降雨的中期预测。作为候选预测因素，选择了海面温度（SST）异常和三个大气环境指数。已经发现，具有NPI和选定SST的模型作为输入表现良好。较少的