Collaborative Research: EaSM-3: Regional decadal predictions of coupled climate-human systems

合作研究：EaSM-3：气候-人类耦合系统的区域年代际预测

• 批准号: 1419585
• 负责人: William Large
• 金额: $ 38.16万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2017-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1419585&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; EaSM; Regional; decadal

Coastal regions like New Jersey and its environs are highly susceptible not only to the direct wind and rain effects of atmospheric storms, but also to related oceanic responses like storm surges. Moreover, the area's large metropolitan areas are particularly vulnerable to summer heat waves associated with atmospheric blocking. The most extreme storm types include hurricanes, atmospheric "bombs" (storms whose central pressure falls rapidly over a 24-hour period), nor'easters and tropical storms that transition to extra-tropical storms. Very heavy storm precipitation, fed in part by the neighboring ocean can lead to inland flooding, which can combine with high sea level anomalies to produce devastating coastal inundation, as evidenced recently by both Tropical Storm Irene and Superstorm Sandy. Typical climate models with a resolution of around one degree are too coarse to capture well heat waves or the high precipitation and destructive near-surface winds generated by severe storms and hurricanes. The overarching goal of this project is to predict economic and other human system impacts of extreme weather events at regional and decadal scales, while accounting for some natural climate variability, anthropogenic influences. A multi-scale climate model in which a one-kilometer land surface model was successfully incorporated will be extended to include a multi-scale atmosphere model capable of representing cyclones and atmospheric blocking, a coastal ocean model that can produce storm surge. The environmental and climate outcomes for the target region will be integrated with existing regional economic models and current economic valuation methodologies for present and future climate conditions. This project brings together local (municipal and county) decision makers with the academic climate and socio-economic scientists to tackle some of the most urgent challenges facing society: How will our social and economic systems respond to a changing climate? The project also offers the opportunity for two graduate students to train in a highly interdisciplinary team of climate and human systems scientist and between two leading institutions preparing for challenges of the future. The expected legacy of this project is a model framework that can be used in many regions of the world, the training of next generation scientists, communication between scientists and local decision makers in vulnerable areas and outreach to the general population. This project aims to predict some aspects of the human and economic impacts of climate change, climate variability and changing urbanized coastal environments of New Jersey and environs. It builds on a multi-scale climate model that successfully incorporated a 1 km land surface model within the framework of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to downscale weather events to the scales of socio-economic models. The latter include models for electricity demand, land-use, decision making and macro- and micro-economic activity. The driving hypothesis is that the dominant socio-economic impacts will be responses to extreme events such as heat waves and storms. Therefore, the project will advance the downscaling by employing existing higher resolution models of the atmosphere and a regional ocean with a demonstrated capability of producing such events as a function of climate state, including related surges in sea level. Thus, with a greater degree of confidence, the project will simulate the co-evolution of the coupled climate/socio-economic systems in response to these events and will make decadal predictions of the socio-economic responses. Rather than performing ensemble simulations with the full coupled climate and socio-economic models time-slice computations for future states (2050) will be performed. Asynchronous coupling between the climate and social models will be carried out to develop uncertainty measures for the socio-economic models. The time-slice approach can be regarded as a proof of concept for the modeling framework, which can then be used in future work to study the full evolution of the system based on a given scenario.

像新泽西州及其周围环境等沿海地区不仅易受大气风暴的直接风和雨水影响，而且对风暴潮的相关海洋反应也很容易受到影响。此外，该地区的大都市地区特别容易受到与大气阻塞相关的夏季热浪的影响。最极端的风暴类型包括飓风，大气“炸弹”（中央压力在24小时内迅速下降的风暴），非eas骨和热带风暴过渡到热带风暴。非常沉重的暴风雨降水，部分由附近的海洋喂养，可能导致内陆洪水，这可能与高海平面异常相结合，产生毁灭性的沿海淹没，这是热带风暴艾琳和超级风暴桑迪最近证明的。分辨率约为一个度的典型气候模型太粗糙，无法捕获井的热浪或严重暴风雨和飓风产生的高降水和破坏性的近地面风。该项目的总体目标是预测区域和十年尺度上极端天气事件的经济和其他人类系统的影响，同时考虑了一些自然气候变化，人为的影响。一个多尺度的气候模型，将成功合并到一个公里的土地表面模型中，将扩展到包含一个多尺度大气模型，该模型能够代表旋风和大气阻滞，这是一种可以产生风暴潮的沿海海洋模型。目标区域的环境和气候成果将与现有的区域经济模型以及当前和未来气候状况的当前经济估值方法集成。该项目将当地（市政和县）的决策者与学术气候和社会经济科学家汇集在一起​​，以应对社会面临的一些最紧迫的挑战：我们的社会和经济体系如何应对不断变化的气候？该项目还为两位研究生提供了机会，可以在一个高度的气候和人类系统科学家组成的跨学科团队中进行培训，并在两个领先的机构之间为未来的挑战做准备。该项目的预期遗产是一个模型框架，可以在世界许多地区使用，对下一代科学家的培训，易受伤害地区的科学家与当地决策者之间的沟通以及向普通人群进行宣传。该项目旨在预测气候变化，气候变异性以及新泽西州和周围城市化沿海环境的人类和经济影响的某些方面。它建立在多尺度的气候模型的基础上，该模型成功地将1公里的地表模型纳入了社区地球系统模型（CESM）的框架中，以降级天气事件到社会经济模型的尺度上。后者包括电力需求，土地利用，决策以及宏观和微观经济活动的模型。驾驶假设是，主要的社会经济影响将是对热浪和风暴等极端事件的反应。因此，该项目将通过采用现有的高分辨率模型和区域海洋来推动降低缩放，并显示出产生诸如气候状态函数（包括海平面上的相关激增）之类的事件的能力。因此，该项目以更大的信心将模拟耦合气候/社会经济系统的共同发展，以响应这些事件，并将对社会经济反应进行年代际预测。将对未来状态（2050年）进行完整的耦合气候和社会经济模型计算，而不是使用完整的耦合气候和社会经济模型进行集合模拟。将进行气候和社会模型之间的异步耦合，以制定社会经济模型的不确定性度量。时间片方法可以被视为建模框架的概念证明，然后可以在将来的工作中使用它来研究基于给定情况的系统的完整演变。