Collaborative Research: "EaSM-3": The Role of Ocean Eddies in Decadal Prediction

合作研究：“EaSM-3”：海洋涡流在年代际预测中的作用

• 批准号: 1419559
• 负责人: Gokhan Danabasoglu
• 金额: $ 100万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-07-15 至 2020-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1419559&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; EaSM; Role; Ocean

There is a growing demand for environmental predictions that include a broader range of space and time scales and that include a more complete representation of weather and climate processes. Meeting this demand necessitates a unified approach that challenges the traditional boundaries between weather and climate science, and requires a more integrated approach with much higher spatial resolution models that resolve important dynamical processes and their interactions. Estimates of predictability are likely to be sensitive to the range of processes and phenomena captured by these models. This project seeks to provide a comprehensive assessment of how ocean eddies affect decadal predictability. One of the key questions this project asks is, do prediction systems actually need to initialize individual ocean eddies or is simply including ocean eddies in the prediction system sufficient? Answering this question has profound implications in the design of decadal prediction systems. This project will contribute to workforce development through the education of a graduate student in important climate variability and change problems, and the mentoring of a post-doctoral researcher. The decadal prediction and climate services community will be advised regarding how ocean eddies impact decadal predictability and how to initialize them in eddy resolving models. The new capacity for high-resolution assimilation within the freely accessible Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) modeling frameworks will be available to the CESM climate modeling community. More broadly, any model that interfaces with the DART ensemble assimilation system can leverage the data assimilation infrastructure advances and tool development that will be developed under this project. Ocean eddy-resolving simulations, data assimilation products, predictability and experimental prediction results that are of interest to the broader climate community will be also made readily available.This research project is based on the hypothesis that the dynamic and physical process associated with ocean eddies and the accompanying interactions with the atmosphere have a large and robust impact on decadal predictability. The proposed research seeks to quantify this effect through diagnostic predictability research by analyzing long eddy resolving simulations and prognostic "perfect" model predictability experiments. Tools and capabilities that are necessary to initialize the ocean component of coupled models at eddy resolving resolutions will be developed. The new eddy resolving data assimilation system will be evaluated through experimental prediction. The project also seeks to develop a data assimilation system appropriate for initializing decadal prediction at ocean eddy-resolving scales. The current ensemble-based ocean data assimilation method available at eddy-permitting resolution will be applied to the eddy-resolving model. To support tuning the new high-resolution data assimilation system, novel tools for estimating the resolution-dependent observational error statistics used in the assimilation will be developed. The specification of resolution-dependent observational error statistics is of enormous importance for data assimilation, and tools to support this are currently unavailable. The limitations of the high-resolution ocean data assimilation system will be assessed in terms of its computational cost and its efficacy at constraining the eddy field, and the project will develop strategies for addressing these limitations that are aligned with the needs of decadal prediction that are identified as part of the decadal predictability research. Finally, the data assimilation system will be implemented at eddy-resolving scales during the data-rich years of 2006-present, and evaluated with experimental predictions.

对环境预测的需求不断增长，其中包括更广泛的时空和时间尺度，其中包括对天气和气候过程的更完整表示。满足这一需求需要采取统一的方法来挑战天气和气候科学之间的传统界限，并且需要采用更高的空间分辨率模型来解决重要的动态过程及其相互作用。可预测性的估计值可能对这些模型捕获的过程和现象的范围敏感。该项目旨在对海洋涡流如何影响十年可预测性进行全面评估。该项目要求的关键问题之一是，预测系统实际上需要初始化单个海洋涡流，还是仅仅在预测系统中加入海洋涡流？回答这个问题对际预测系统​​的设计具有深远的影响。该项目将通过对重要气候变化和变化问题的研究生教育以及对博士后研究人员的指导来为劳动力发展做出贡献。将告知际预测和气候服务社区有关海洋涡流如何影响十年可预测性以及如何在涡流解析模型中初始化它们。在CESM气候建模社区中，可以使用可自由访问的社区地球系统模型（CESM）（CESM）（CESM）（CESM）和数据同化研究测试床（DART）建模框架的新的高分辨率同化能力。更广泛地说，任何与DART合奏同化系统接口的模型都可以利用该项目下开发的数据同化基础架构的进步和工具开发。 海洋涡流的模拟，数据同化产品，可预测性和实验性预测结果也将很容易获得。该研究项目基于以下假设：随附的与大气的相互作用对十年性可预测性具有巨大而强大的影响。拟议的研究旨在通过分析长期涡流解决模拟和预后的“完美”模型可预测性实验来通过诊断可预测性研究来量化这种效果。将开发在涡流解决方案中初始化耦合模型的海洋组成部分所需的工具和功能。新的涡流解决数据同化系统将通过实验预测进行评估。该项目还旨在开发一个数据同化系统，适合于在海洋涡流量表上初始化decadal预测。当前基于合奏的海洋数据同化方法可在Eddy-Permittit分辨率下使用，将应用于涡流分辨模型。为了支持调整新的高分辨率数据同化系统，将开发用于估计依赖分辨率依赖的观察误差统计量的新型工具。对于数据同化，与分辨率依赖性观察错误统计的规范非常重要，并且目前不可用支持这一点的工具。高分辨率海洋数据同化系统的局限被确定为十年可预测性研究的一部分。最后，数据同化系统将在2006年富裕年份的涡流分辨率范围内实施，并通过实验预测进行评估。