Collaborative Research EaSM-3: Local and Remote Regional Climate Responses to Regional Forcings from Short-Lived Climate Forcers

合作研究 EaSM-3：本地和远程区域气候对短期气候强迫因素的区域强迫的响应

• 批准号: 1419571
• 负责人: J. Lamarque
• 金额: $ 113.22万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-10-01 至 2020-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1419571&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; EaSM; Local; Remote

The goal of this collaborative project is to examine local and remote impacts of regional perturbations in SLCFs (e.g., tropospheric aerosols, tropospheric ozone and methane), that will be key drivers of regional climate changes over the next several decades. There is evidence that the regional climate effects of SLCF emissions can be significant, and this study will enhance understanding of the magnitude, spatial pattern and statistical significance of these influences as well as the processes responsible for these outcomes . Knowledge generated through this study can inform the climate assessment community and decision-makers about the consequences of additional actions to mitigate emissions of SLCFs. A long control experiment will be undertaken to provide the baseline and statistical basis for significance analysis as well as study regional climate responses to SLCFs and their precursors determined by a series of perturbations from this control state. Using three state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs), robust estimates of the climate and atmospheric composition impacts from regional perturbations in short-lived climate forcers will be studied. Statistical emulators of the relationships between climate forcers and climate impacts following a pattern scaling or statistical emulators approach will be built. These emulators will enable integrated assessment and/or impacts studies under a variety of future emission scenarios, allowing exploration of regional climate impacts under alternative choices of future SLCF emissions.

该合作项目的目标是研究 SLCF 区域扰动（例如对流层气溶胶、对流层臭氧和甲烷）对当地和远程的影响，这将是未来几十年区域气候变化的关键驱动因素。有证据表明，SLCF 排放对区域气候的影响可能很大，这项研究将加深对这些影响的幅度、空间模式和统计意义以及造成这些结果的过程的了解。 通过这项研究产生的知识可以让气候评估界和决策者了解减少 SLCF 排放的额外行动的后果。将进行长期控制实验，为显着性分析提供基线和统计基础，并研究由该控制状态的一系列扰动确定的 SLCF 及其前兆的区域气候响应。将使用三个最先进的地球系统模型（ESM），对短期气候强迫因素的区域扰动对气候和大气成分的影响进行稳健估计。将按照模式缩放或统计模拟器方法建立气候驱动因素和气候影响之间关系的统计模拟器。这些模拟器将能够在各种未来排放情景下进行综合评估和/或影响研究，从而能够在未来 SLCF 排放的替代选择下探索区域气候影响。