EaSM-3: Collaborative Research: Quantifying Predictability Limits, Uncertainties, Mechanisms, and Regional Impacts of Pacific Decadal Climate Variability

EaSM-3：合作研究：量化太平洋年代际气候变化的可预测性限制、不确定性、机制和区域影响

• 批准号: 1419235
• 负责人: Hyodae Seo
• 金额: $ 36.81万
• 依托单位: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2019-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1419235&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EaSM; Collaborative; Research; Quantifying; Predictability

Climate in the Pacific region varies on decadal timescales, but the mechanisms that control these long-term climate variations are still unclear. If the mechanisms can be better understood, then the uncertainties associated with making climate predictions on these timescales can be assessed more accurately. Decadal variability over the Pacific is of particular interest in the United States due to its downstream influence over the western United States and its direct influence on climate in Alaska. This project addresses the fundamental question of what are the predictability limits, mechanisms, and regional impacts for decadal modes of the Pacific climate system using a hierarchy of climate models and modern statistical tools. The results of this project will be important in assessing how long-term changes in the environment drive changes in economically important variables such as rainfall, soil moisture, snowfall, temperatures, as well as oceanic temperatures, currents and sea levels, which impacts fisheries, agriculture, and coastal infrastructure along the U.S. West Coast and Asian Marginal Seas. The tools developed in this project should be transferable to other global sectors that also exhibit decadal variability. The project team will mentor graduate students and post-docs, whose educational experiences will include cross-disciplinary exposure to ocean science, atmospheric science, and societal impacts that will be unique in this context. Community outreach will include lectures and educational presentations in public forums, mentoring K-12 students, educating grass-roots climate action organizations, informing the media, and posting research results on web pages.There is clearly a large gap in our understanding of what controls Pacific decadal climate variability, what limits the predictability of the flows, and what practical skill might be useful in regional impacts on land and in the ocean. The project team proposes a coordinated research effort to better understand the basic physical dynamics of Pacific decadal variability and assess the skill of Pacific decadal predictability, along with its uncertainties and practical value. The research focuses on Community Earth System Model (CESM), with its vast repository of archived runs supplemented with targeted predictability experiments. The analysis focuses on using sophisticated statistical models (Linear Inverse Models) to identify statistical relations among variables, diagnose physical processes, and isolate potentially predictable components of the flows. It also involves using regional coupled atmosphere-ocean, along with uncoupled ocean and atmosphere models, to enhance the understanding of regional response and its potential for practical use in forecasting. The project brings together scientists skilled with developing decadal climate diagnostics, making both statistical and dynamical predictions, and executing regional coupled climate downscaling and regional high-resolution ocean modeling.

太平洋地区的气候在十年间尺度上变化，但控制这些长期气候变化的机制仍不清楚。如果能够更好地理解这些机制，那么就可以更准确地评估与在这些时间尺度上进行气候预测相关的不确定性。太平洋的年代际变化在美国特别令人感兴趣，因为它对美国西部的下游影响以及对阿拉斯加气候的直接影响。该项目利用气候模型层次结构和现代统计工具解决了太平洋气候系统十年模式的可预测性限制、机制和区域影响的基本问题。该项目的结果对于评估环境的长期变化如何驱动重要经济变量的变化非常重要，例如降雨、土壤湿度、降雪、温度以及海洋温度、洋流和海平面，这些变量会影响渔业、美国西海岸和亚洲边缘海的农业和沿海基础设施。该项目开发的工具应该可以转移到也表现出十年变化的其他全球部门。该项目团队将指导研究生和博士后，他们的教育经历将包括跨学科接触海洋科学、大气科学和社会影响，这在这方面是独一无二的。 社区外展活动将包括在公共论坛上进行讲座和教育演示、指导 K-12 学生、教育基层气候行动组织、向媒体通报情况以及在网页上发布研究结果。我们对控制因素的理解显然存在很大差距太平洋年代际气候变率，限制流量可预测性的因素，以及哪些实用技能可能有助于对陆地和海洋的区域影响。该项目团队提出了一项协调的研究工作，以更好地了解太平洋年代际变化的基本物理动力学，并评估太平洋年代际预测的技能及其不确定性和实用价值。该研究的重点是社区地球系统模型（CESM），其庞大的存档运行存储库辅以有针对性的可预测性实验。该分析的重点是使用复杂的统计模型（线性逆模型）来识别变量之间的统计关系、诊断物理过程并隔离流量的潜在可预测组件。它还涉及使用区域耦合的大气-海洋以及非耦合的海洋和大气模型，以增强对区域响应及其在预测中实际应用的潜力的理解。该项目汇集了擅长开发十年气候诊断、进行统计和动态预测以及执行区域耦合气候降尺度和区域高分辨率海洋建模的科学家。