Collaborative Research: The Influence of Arctic-Lower-Latitude Interactions on Weather and Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability, and Prediction

合作研究：北极-低纬度相互作用对天气和气候变率的影响：机制、可预测性和预测

基本信息

批准号：
1737377
负责人：
Gokhan Danabasoglu
金额：
$ 26万
依托单位：
University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-09-15 至 2022-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1737377&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Influence Arctic Lower

项目摘要

With the rapidly melting sea-ice, the Arctic is becoming increasingly important not only scientifically but also socioeconomically and geopolitically. Early efforts indicate that there is potential to predict Arctic variability on timescales ranging from subseasonal to decadal. However, skillful operational predictions of the Arctic weather and climate require major advances in our understanding of linkages in climate and weather extremes between the Arctic and lower-latitudes, and subsequently, how best to represent relevant mechanisms in prediction systems. While the changes in the lower-latitude ocean and atmosphere inevitably influence the Arctic, the interaction is truly two-way, in that changes in the Arctic also impact the lower-latitude climate and weather, in particular midlatitude extreme weather events. To improve our fundamental dynamical understanding, modeling capabilities, and prediction skill, using a combination of available observations and state-of-the-art climate models, the team proposes to investigate tropical and mid-latitude oceanic and atmospheric drivers of regional Arctic changes. They will also investigate the role of the Arctic on the Northern Hemisphere climate variability and weather extremes. The team will participate in the European Union (EU)-led international multi-model inter-comparison study, the Blue-Action Project under the EU Horizon 2020 Programme. A deeper understanding of Arctic-lower-latitude linkages, and our capacity for predicting Arctic and Northern Hemisphere variability is relevant to a wide variety of end-user applications, such as weather forecasting, fisheries management, commercial shipping, commercial insurance, and naval operations. Thus, this project has substantial broader impacts. The project team will also actively perform outreach activities to disseminate findings and to educate public through webpages, public lectures, K-12 school visits, teacher trainings, and Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) programs. A postdoctoral scientist will also be trained under this project.

随着海冰迅速融化，北极不仅在科学上变得越来越重要，而且在社会经济和地缘政治上也变得越来越重要。早期的努力表明，有可能在从次季节到十年的时间尺度上预测北极的变化。然而，对北极天气和气候的熟练操作预测需要我们对北极和低纬度地区之间的气候和极端天气之间的联系以及随后如何最好地表示预测系统中的相关机制的理解取得重大进展。虽然低纬度海洋和大气的变化不可避免地影响北极，但这种相互作用确实是双向的，因为北极的变化也会影响低纬度气候和天气，特别是中纬度极端天气事件。为了提高我们的基本动力学理解、建模能力和预测技能，该团队建议结合现有的观测结果和最先进的气候模型，研究北极区域变化的热带和中纬度海洋和大气驱动因素。他们还将研究北极对北半球气候变化和极端天气的作用。该团队将参与欧盟（EU）主导的国际多模型比对研究，即欧盟地平线2020计划下的蓝色行动项目。对北极与低纬度地区联系的更深入了解以及我们预测北极和北半球变化的能力与各种最终用户应用相关，例如天气预报、渔业管理、商业航运、商业保险和海军行动。因此，该项目具有更广泛的影响。项目团队还将积极开展外展活动，通过网页、公开讲座、K-12学校参观、教师培训和本科生研究经验（REU）项目来传播研究结果并教育公众。该项目还将培训一名博士后科学家。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（5）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice‐Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations

DOI：
10.1029/2019gl085397
发表时间：
2020-01
期刊：
Geophysical Research Letters
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Yu‐Chiao Liang;Young‐Oh Kwon;C. Frankignoul;G. Danabasoglu;S. Yeager;A. Cherchi;Yongqi Gao;G. Gastineau;R. Ghosh;D. Matei;J. Mecking;D. Peano;L. Suo;T. Tian
通讯作者：
Yu‐Chiao Liang;Young‐Oh Kwon;C. Frankignoul;G. Danabasoglu;S. Yeager;A. Cherchi;Yongqi Gao;G. Gastineau;R. Ghosh;D. Matei;J. Mecking;D. Peano;L. Suo;T. Tian

Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and Their Predictive Potential along the Atlantic Water Pathway

大西洋水道沿线温盐异常的传播及其预测潜力

DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-20-1007.1
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
Journal of Climate
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Langehaug, H. R.;Ortega, P.;Counillon, F.;Matei, D.;Maroon, E.;Keenlyside, N.;Mignot, J.;Wang, Y.;Swingedouw, D.;Bethke, I.
通讯作者：
Bethke, I.

Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO