Phenomenological and Predictability Studies of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones in Relation to the Pacific Jet Stream

西北太平洋热带气旋与太平洋急流的现象学和可预测性研究

• 批准号: 0935830
• 负责人: Lance Bosart
• 金额: $ 57.6万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Albany
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-01-01 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0935830&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Phenomenological; Predictability; Studies; Western; North

This project will investigate tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific with emphasis on TC life cycle, track, and structure; TC interaction with the North Pacific jet stream; and high-impact weather events over the eastern North Pacific and North America that are linked dynamically to western North Pacific TCs. Atmospheric predictability will be addressed in terms of conventional statistical measures of model forecast skill, and will be assessed in the context of episodes of individual western North Pacific TCs and downstream high-impact weather events. These project goals will be accomplished through an analysis of recurving and transitioning TCs, including those TCs that undergo extratropical transition (ET) and subsequent reintensification as extratropical cyclones (ECs), over the western North Pacific from July through December. The analysis will address the ability of operational numerical weather prediction models to forecast episodes of western North Pacific TCs and associated high-impact weather events occurring downstream over the eastern North Pacific and North America; the behavior of large-scale flow regimes in which these episodes occur; and the transitions between large-scale flow regimes that take place in conjunction with these episodes. Multiscale investigations of interactions involving TCs and the North Pacific jet stream and the ET/EC of western North Pacific TCs will be conducted to understand how initial-analysis and model-physics errors limit predictability, and will be accomplished through the synoptic evaluation of the skill of the operational National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System for projections out to two weeks.This project may be expected to advance scientific understanding by isolating factors that limit predictability for episodes of western North Pacific TCs and associated downstream high-impact weather events over the eastern North Pacific and North America, establishing the relative levels of predictability for the large-scale flow regimes and regime transitions in which these episodes occur, and increasing understanding of the mechanisms that govern the predictive skill of high-impact weather events. The anticipated advances in scientific understanding may be expected to translate into improved forecasts of high-impact weather events over the eastern North Pacific and North America that are challenging to predict, thereby benefiting operational forecasting practice in the U.S.

该项目将研究北太平洋西部的热带气旋（TC），重点是TC生命周期，轨道和结构。与北太平洋喷气流相互作用；以及与北太平洋西部TCS动态有关的北太平洋和北美地区的高影响力事件。大气可预测性将根据模型预测技能的常规统计量度来解决，并将在各个西部北太平洋TC和下游高影响力事件的情节中进行评估。这些项目目标将通过分析和过渡的TC来实现，包括从7月到12月，在北太平洋地区，包括经历了热带过渡（ET）（ET）的TC以及随后的重新强化气旋（ECS）。 该分析将介绍运行数值天气预测模型预测西部太平洋TCS的发作以及相关的高影响力天气事件的能力，该事件发生在北太平洋东部和北美的下游；这些事件发生的大规模流动状态的行为；以及与这些事件结合发生的大规模流动状态之间的过渡。 将对涉及TCS和北太平洋喷气流的相互作用以及北部太平洋TC的ET/EC进行多尺度研究，以了解初始分析和模型 - 物理学错误如何限制可预测性，并将通过对全球预测的投影范围的进步（NCEP）的进步来实现综合性评估，以实现对全球预测的进步，以实现全球预测的进步。限制了北太平洋TC的发作以及北太平洋东部和北美的下游高影响的天气事件的可预测性，确立了这些发作发生的大规模流动方案和政权过渡的相对可预测性水平，并越来越多地了解了对高影响力天气事件的预​​测能力的机制的理解。预计科学理解的预期进步可能会转化为对北太平洋东部和北美高度影响天气事件的预​​测，这些预测充满挑战，从而受益于美国的运营预测实践