A Multiscale Diagnostic and Prognostic Investigation of Environmental Influences on Tropical Cyclone Life Cycles

环境对热带气旋生命周期影响的多尺度诊断和预测研究

• 批准号: 0304254
• 负责人: Lance Bosart
• 金额: $ 62.67万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Albany
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-05-01 至 2007-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0304254&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Multiscale; Diagnostic; Prognostic; Investigation; Environmental

The purpose of this research is to conduct detailed diagnostic and prognostic analyses of tropical cyclones from genesis to extratropical transition (ET). The research will be conducted in two stages. In stage one, a detailed diagnostic analysis will be conducted for historical storms as well as all Atlantic tropical cyclones over the course of one or two complete storm seasons. The life history of each storm will be tracked and documented beginning several days before tropical depression definition and ending when the storm has dissipated or undergone extratropical transition. The goal of stage one is to identify the variety of tropical and midlatitude disturbances responsible for the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Further, the upscale impact of significant cyclogenesis/transition events on the large-scale flow will also be examined. In stage two, numerical simulations of representative storms will be conducted to test physical hypotheses formulated from the diagnostic analyses completed in stage one. Tropical cyclogenesis, intensity changes, recurvature, and tropical transition occur across a variety of large-scale tropical and subtropical environments. Each event may result from the presence of a single feature in the large-scale flow (e.g., easterly wave; midlatitude upper-level trough or potential vorticity [PV] anomaly) or may involve the interaction of multiple features in the flow. The contribution of single-feature and multiple-feature environmental forcings in tropical cyclogenesis and extratropical transition remains unclear and needs to be quantified. Diagnosing all storms within a storm season will address the relative importance of one-time forcing and multiple forcings events.The primary datasets used in this study will be operational gridded analyses fields. Advantage will be taken of the abundant satellite-derived upper-tropospheric water winds. The available datasets will allow for the detailed analysis of tropical cyclogenesis and extratropical transition over the oceans.The broader impacts of this proposal follow from the fact that tropical cyclones at any stage of their life cycle can pose a serious threat to life and property to mariners at sea, to coastal residents and to inland inhabitants. By examining a spectrum of tropical cyclone life cycles in detail it is hoped that the basic knowledge gained may have operational application in the area of tropical cyclone track/intensity forecasting and quantitative precipitation estimation. This project also presents the opportunity to work with various government and civilian agencies and other educational institutions to help facilitate the transfer of knowledge to operations and to students.

这项研究的目的是对从创世纪到诱体转变（ET）的热带气旋进行详细的诊断和预后分析。 该研究将分为两个阶段。 在第一阶段，将在一个或两个完整的风暴季节中针对历史风暴以及所有大西洋热带气旋进行详细的诊断分析。 从热带抑郁症定义的几天开始并结束了风暴消散或经过激烈的过渡，将从几天开始跟踪和记录每一场风暴的生活历史。 第一阶段的目的是确定导致大西洋盆地热带气旋发展的热带和中纬度干扰。 此外，还将检查重要的环生成/过渡事件对大规模流量的高档影响。 在第二阶段中，将对代表性风暴进行数值模拟，以测试从第一阶段完成的诊断分析提出的物理假设。 热带气体发生，强度变化，循环效果和热带转变发生在各种大规模的热带和亚热带环境中。 每个事件都可能是由于大规模流中存在单个特征（例如，东风；中纬度上流槽或电势涡流[PV]异常），或者可能涉及流量中多个特征的相互作用。 单场和多种环境强迫在热带环生成和热带过渡中的贡献尚不清楚，需要进行量化。 诊断在风暴季节内所有风暴将解决一次性强迫和多个强迫事件的相对重要性。本研究中使用的主要数据集将是操作网格分析场。 将利用丰富的卫星衍生的上流层水风来利用优势。 可用的数据集将允许对海洋的热带循环发生和热带过渡进行详细分析。该提案的更广泛影响来自这样一个事实，即热带旋风在其生命周期的任何阶段都可以对生命和财产构成对海水者的生命和财产的严重威胁，从而向海洋者，海岸居民，沿海居民和内地居民构成严重威胁。 通过详细检查热带气旋生命周期的光谱，希望获得的基本知识可以在热带气旋轨道/强度预测和定量降水估计的领域具有运营应用。 该项目还提供了与各种政府和平民机构以及其他教育机构合作的机会，以帮助促进知识转移到运营和学生。