Climatological, Composite, and Case Study Analyses Linking Rossby Wave Breaking to Potential Vorticity Streamer and Cutoff Cyclone Formation in the Subtropical North Atlantic Basin

将罗斯贝波破碎与副热带北大西洋盆地潜在涡流和截止气旋形成联系起来的气候学、综合和案例研究分析

基本信息

批准号：
1656406
负责人：
Lance Bosart
金额：
$ 39.85万
依托单位：
SUNY at Albany
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-06-15 至 2022-05-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1656406&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Climatological Composite Case Study Analyses

项目摘要

Extreme weather events, although having a low probability of occurrence, can exert very high adverse socioeconomic impacts. The goal of the funded research is to investigate the climatology, seasonality, and their interactions with background flows of a variety of extreme weather events that impact parts of the United States, Central America, and the Western Caribbean. Candidate extreme weather events to be investigated include heavy, flood-producing rainstorms during the cooler half of the year and tropical disturbances that can bring flooding rains, damaging winds, and devastating storm surges during the warmer half of the year. These candidate extreme weather events often occur in conjunction with upper tropospheric disturbances known as cutoff cyclones. Cutoff cyclones that form in higher latitudes can dump chilly air into the subtropics, fueling cold waves initially and big rainstorms subsequently. Cutoff cyclones that form in lower latitudes can enable warm, moist tropical air to reach midlatitudes, fueling tropical cyclone landfalls and/or exceptionally heavy rainfalls. A novel aspect of the research is that it is targeted at the interaction of tropical and midlatitude circulations associated with cutoff cyclones. These cutoff cyclones can govern the timing, occurrence, and location of extreme weather events in the United States, Central America, and western Caribbean. Another innovation of this research project is that historically extreme weather events have been studied in isolation. This historical approach precludes the possibility of detecting the occurrence of multiple geographically separated but dynamically linked extreme weather events that may be occurring near simultaneously in different parts of the world. A sure-fire recipe for the occurrence of extreme weather events is the existence of a wavy, high-amplitude, large-scale flow pattern across the Northern Hemisphere that can break down into a series of cutoff cyclones. A critical science issue is determining the physical causes of flow breakdown that can lead to cutoff cyclone formation. The research project will use state-of-the-art global gridded datasets to identify the frequency of extreme weather events associated with cutoff cyclones. Climatological, composite, and case study analyses will be constructed from these gridded datasets to help quantify the physical processes governing the location and occurrence of these extreme weather events.The broader impacts of the research are substantial, including (1) the education of the next generation of scientists in the field, (2) opportunities to interact with scientists at NOAA's National Hurricane Center to facilitate the transfer of research to operations, and (3) educating meteorologists from Central America and the Caribbean through outreach and training activities to ensure they are current on weather patterns conducive to the occurrence of extreme weather events in their regions.

极端天气事件尽管发生率很低，但可能会产生很高的不利社会经济影响。资助研究的目的是调查影响美国，中美洲和西加勒比地区各种极端天气事件的背景流的气候，季节性及其与背景流动的相互作用。候选人的极端天气事件将包括一年中凉爽的一半寒冷的洪水暴雨和热带干扰，这些干扰可能会带来洪水泛滥，风能破坏的风和毁灭性的风暴潮流在一年中的一半中。这些候选的极端天气事件通常与对流层上层干扰（称为截止旋风旋风）结合发生。形成更高纬度的截止旋风可以将寒冷的空气倾倒到亚热带中，最初燃烧冷浪，随后发生大暴风雨。在较低纬度形成的截止旋风可以使温暖，潮湿的热带空气达到中纬度，加油热带气旋登陆和/或异常大雨。该研究的一个新方面是，它针对与截止旋风有关的热带和中纬度循环的相互作用。这些截止的气旋可以控制美国，中美洲和西加勒比海极端天气事件的时机，发生和位置。该研究项目的另一个创新是，已经孤立地研究了历史上极端的天气事件。这种历史方法排除了检测出多种地理分离但动态连接的极端天气事件的可能性，这些事件可能同时发生在世界各地。发生极端天气事件的肯定火灾配方是存在北半球的波浪形，高振幅，大规模流动模式，可以分解成一系列的截止旋风。一个关键的科学问题是确定流动崩溃的物理原因，这可能导致截止旋风的形成。该研究项目将使用最先进的全球网格数据集来确定与截止旋风相关的极端天气事件的频率。将从这些网格数据集中构建气候，复合和案例研究分析，以帮助量化这些极端天气事件的位置和发生的物理过程。这项研究的更广泛影响是很大的，包括（1）（1）对现场科学家的下一代科学家的教育，（2）与Noaaa Aaa Anoa hurric Center and Noaaa hurric Center（2）的机会，以实现noaa Aaa Aaa的转变（2）来自中美洲和加勒比海的气象学家通过外展和培训活动，以确保他们在有利于发生极端天气事件的天气模式上。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（7）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

A Feature-Based Approach to Classifying Summertime Potential Vorticity Streamers Linked to Rossby Wave Breaking in the North Atlantic Basin

DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-19-0812.1
发表时间：
2020-07
期刊：
Journal of Climate
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
P. Papin;L. Bosart;R. Torn
通讯作者：
P. Papin;L. Bosart;R. Torn

Linkages between Extreme Precipitation Events in the Central and Eastern United States and Rossby Wave Breaking

美国中部和东部的极端降水事件与罗斯比波浪破碎之间的联系

DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-19-0047.1
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
Monthly Weather Review
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Moore, Benjamin J.;Keyser, Daniel;Bosart, Lance F.
通讯作者：
Bosart, Lance F.

Upper-Tropospheric Precursors to the Formation of Subtropical Cyclones that Undergo Tropical Transition in the North Atlantic Basin

DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-16-0263.1
发表时间：
2017-01
期刊：
Monthly Weather Review
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
A. M. Bentley;L. Bosart;D. Keyser
通讯作者：
A. M. Bentley;L. Bosart;D. Keyser

Interactions of North Pacific Tropical, Midlatitude, and Polar Disturbances Resulting in Linked Extreme Weather Events over North America in October 2007

北太平洋热带、中纬度和极地扰动的相互作用导致 2007 年 10 月北美上空发生相关的极端天气事件

DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-16-0230.1
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
Monthly Weather Review
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Bosart, Lance F.;Moore, Benjamin J.;Cordeira, Jason M.;Archambault, Heather M.
通讯作者：
Archambault, Heather M.

Antecedent North Pacific Jet Regimes Conducive to the Development of Continental U.S. Extreme Temperature Events during the Cool Season

先前的北太平洋急流状况有利于美国大陆冷季极端温度事件的发展