Collaborative Research: Analysis and attribution of changes in Siberian hydroclimate and implications for the future

合作研究：西伯利亚水文气候变化的分析和归因及其对未来的影响

• 批准号: 0909272
• 负责人: Mathew Barlow
• 金额: $ 17.52万
• 依托单位: University of Massachusetts Lowell
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0909272&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Analysis; attribution; changes

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). This work will document observed changes in the hydroclimatology of the Siberian region, attribute these changes to specific physical mechanisms in the context of climate change, and study the impact of those changes from the regional to the hemispheric weather and climate. The project will use observational analysis and modeling experiments to investigate the links between arctic sea ice trends and changes to seasonal snow cover. The autumn snow cover is of particular interest due to its persistent increases over the last two decades despite the robust warming trend and its connection to stratosphere-troposphere coupling and hemispheric variability in the subsequent winter season and that while fall snow cover has been increasing, spring snow cover has been decreasing. This work will explore the links to sea ice in terms of changes to moisture transport, synoptic activity, and soil moisture and the links to the large scale atmospheric dynamics in terms of changes to the timing and occurrence of stratosphere-troposphere coupling events. This will make it possible to evaluate better the feedback mechanisms associated with snow cover and the atmosphere, and should lead to a quantitative assessment of future trends in the Arctic. The likely influence of snow and ice cover on future global temperature trends highlights the importance of developing a fundamental understanding of regional surface-atmosphere water and energy exchange dynamics of the arctic regions. Observed data will include both remote sensing and station observations (snow cover extent of CPC/Rutgers University, snow depth, humidity and temperature data from the Russian Hydrometeorological network, and corrected precipitation) and data from NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses. This work should result in an improved understanding of arctic climate feedback mechanisms, their association with observed past and modeled future trends, and their influence on weather and climate on a hemispheric scale.

该奖项根据 2009 年《美国复苏和再投资法案》（公法 111-5）提供资金。这项工作将记录观察到的西伯利亚地区水文气候变化，将这些变化归因于气候变化背景下的特定物理机制，并研究这些变化从区域到半球天气和气候的影响。该项目将利用观测分析和建模实验来研究北极海冰趋势与季节性积雪变化之间的联系。尽管气候变暖趋势强劲，但秋季积雪在过去二十年里持续增加，而且与平流层-对流层耦合和随后冬季的半球变化有关，因此秋季积雪特别令人感兴趣，而且虽然秋季积雪一直在增加，但春季积雪却一直在增加。积雪一直在减少。这项工作将探讨水分输送、天气活动和土壤水分变化与海冰的联系，以及平流层-对流层耦合事件的时间和发生变化与大尺度大气动力学的联系。这将使更好地评估与积雪和大气相关的反馈机制成为可能，并应导致对北极未来趋势的定量评估。冰雪覆盖对未来全球温度趋势的可能影响凸显了对北极地区区域表面大气水和能量交换动态有基本了解的重要性。观测数据将包括遥感和台站观测（CPC/罗格斯大学的积雪范围、来自俄罗斯水文气象网络的雪深、湿度和温度数据以及校正降水）以及来自 NCEP/NCAR 和 ECMWF 再分析的数据。这项工作应该有助于更好地了解北极气候反馈机制、它们与观测到的过去和模拟的未来趋势的关联，以及它们对半球尺度天气和气候的影响。