Collaborative Research: WCR: Hydrology of Central and Southwest Asia: Connections Between Regional Atmospheric Circulation and Large-scale Climate Variability

合作研究：WCR：中亚和西南亚水文学：区域大气环流与大范围气候变率之间的联系

• 批准号: 0603555
• 负责人: Mathew Barlow
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Massachusetts Lowell
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-09-01 至 2008-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0603555&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; WCR; Hydrology; Central

Severe drought is a notable feature of the hydrology of Central and Southwest Asia (CSW) Asia. During the 4-year period from approximately November 1998 through the end of 2002, the region experienced an exceptionally severe drought, with devastating societal and environmental consequences. The drought comprised the largest area of persistent precipitation deficits anywhere in the world during that period and was locally the most severe drought in over 50 years. Recent research suggests that large-scale, potentially predictable, climate variability is an important factor in CSW Asia precipitation and played a primary role in the recent drought. To explore the potential predictability provided by large-scale climate variability, the key mechanisms for deficits in the regional water cycle of CSW Asia are analyzed.Due to the importance of synoptic storms as a precipitation-generation mechanism in CSW Asia, regional hydrologic anomalies are related to variations in the upper-level wind patterns. These regional atmospheric flow patterns, in turn, can be affected both from the west, by Atlantic variability, and from the east, by Indo-West Pacific variability. These connections and their potential predictability are examined through observational analysis of: (1) regional-scale fluctuations in river flows, (2) the links between these fluctuations and key features of the regional atmospheric circulation that control moisture transport into the region, and (3) the influence of large-scale climate variability on the regional circulation, with particular emphasis on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the eastern Indian Ocean convective maximum.One of the goals of this research is the development of climate information relevant to regional relief effort and management and reconstruction of agriculture, water resources, and health systems.

严重的干旱是中西亚和西南亚（CSW）的水文学的显着特征。 在从1998年11月到2002年底的4年期间，该地区经历了极严重的干旱，具有毁灭性的社会和环境后果。 在此期间，干旱构成了世界上任何地方持续降水缺陷的最大地区，并且是50多年来当地最严重的干旱。 最近的研究表明，大规模，可能可预测的气候变异性是CSW亚洲降水的重要因素，并且在最近的干旱中起着主要作用。 为了探索大规模气候变异性提供的潜在可预测性，分析了CSW亚洲区域水周期中缺陷的关键机制。对于Synoptic Storms作为CSW亚洲的一种降水机制的重要性，区域水平的异常机制与上层风模式的变化有关。 这些区域大气流动模式反过来又可以受到西部，大西洋的可变性的影响，并受到印度太平洋 - 太平洋的可变性的影响。 这些连接及其潜在可预测性通过观察分析进行检查：（1）河流中的区域尺度波动，（2）这些波动之间的联系与控制水分进入该区域的区域大气环流的关键特征，以及（3）北部的气候变化对北部的北部循环的影响，尤其是北方人的北方人，北方人的影响，北方人的北部循环影响（振荡（ENSO）和东印度洋的对流最大。这项研究的目标之一是发展与地区救济工作以及农业，水资源和卫生系统的重建与地区救济工作以及重建有关的气候信息。