Empirical and Diagnostic Analysis of the Influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on the Precipitation of Central and North America

马登朱利安涛动对中北美降水影响的实证与诊断分析

• 批准号: 0437253
• 负责人: Mathew Barlow
• 金额: $ 26.98万
• 依托单位: Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-12-01 至 2006-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0437253&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Empirical; Diagnostic; Analysis; Influence; Madden

This project will examine the influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on the warm-season precipitation of Central and North America, will develop a dynamical framework for understanding this relationship, and will make a preliminary assessment of the degree to which the Madden Julian Oscillation may provide predictability to precipitation over the Americas. This forecasting problem covers the time-scales between synoptic and seasonal. Three sets of analyses will be conducted: empirical analysis of the Madden Julian Oscillation during the course of its life cycle; diagnostic analysis of dynamics and thermodynamics; and an assessment of the potential predictability based on its phase propagation. Predictability of regional precipitation at and beyond two weeks based on the Madden-Julian-Oscillation is expected to result in economically and societally relevant impacts for Central and North America. This ranges from flood and fire risks to air quality.

该项目将研究马登朱利安涛动对中北美暖季降水的影响，建立一个理解这种关系的动力框架，并对马登朱利安涛动可能提供的程度进行初步评估。美洲降水的可预测性。该预测问题涵盖天气和季节之间的时间尺度。将进行三组分析：马登朱利安振荡在其生命周期过程中的实证分析；动力学和热力学诊断分析；以及基于其相位传播的潜在可预测性的评估。根据马登-朱利安振荡对两周及之后区域降水的预测预计将对中美洲和北美产生经济和社会相关影响。这些范围从洪水和火灾风险到空气质量。